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Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This paper tests the relationship among returns, volatilities, contracts and open interests of KOSPI 200 futures markets with the various dynamic models such as granger-causality, impulse response, variance decomposition and ARMA(1, 1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The sample period is from July 7, 1998 to Dec...

This paper tests the relationship among returns, volatilities, contracts and open interests of KOSPI 200 futures markets with the various dynamic models such as granger-causality, impulse response, variance decomposition and ARMA(1, 1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The sample period is from July 7, 1998 to December 29, 2005. The main empirical results are as follows; First, both contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market tend to lead the returns of that according to the results of granger-causality, impulse response and variance decomposition with VAR. These results are likely to support the KOSPI 200 futures market seems to be inefficient with rejecting the hypothesis 1. Second, we also find that the returns and volatilities of the KOSPI 200 futures market are effected by both contract change and open interest change of that due to the results of ARMA(1,1)-GJR-GARCH(1,1)-M. These results also reject the hypothesis 1 and 2 suggesting the evidences of inefficiency of the KOSPI 200 futures market. Third, the study shows the asymmetric information effects among the variables. In addition, we can find the feedback relationship between the contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market.

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