이성관
(Expressway & Transportation Research Institute)
,
강승림
(U-City Project Team in Yonsei University)
,
김창호
(University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
지진을 기록하기 시작한 후로 우리나라에 발생한 지진은 2000회가 넘는 것으로 집계되고 있으며 그 중 48회는 엄청난 피해를 초래한 것으로 나타난다. 지진으로 인한 생산설비나 주요 관로 등의 시설물피해는 특정 지역에 국한되는 것이 아니라 지역간의 상호 의존적 특성에 의해 경제적으로 볼 때 심각한 피해를 주변에 전달하게 된다. 또한 지진과 같이 예측하지 못하는 사건으로 인해 발생하는 경제적 피해는 단순히 시설붕괴 같은 직접적인 손실뿐만 아니라 당해 시설의 보수나 재건에 소요되는 기간을 통틀어 간접적인 손실이 발생하게 됨을 인지해야 한다. 그런데, 지진 등과 같이 예측하지 못한 사건으로 인한 손실과 피해를 입은 시설 등을 보수보강 하거나 재건하는데 필요한 정부투자나 예산지원 금액을 보다 합리적으로 산정하기 위해서는 피해를 입은 지역내부 뿐만 아니라 그 지역이 관계를 맺고 있는 주변지역과의 직 간접 경제적 손실을 제대로 산출해 낼 필요가 있다. 여기서 직접적인 경제손실이라하면 생산시설이나 공급선의 피해로 인해 발생한 수요-공급관계의 1차적 변화를 의미하며, 간접적인 경제손실은 산업구조상 관계를 맺고 있는 다른 부문에서 나타나는 간접적인 변화를 의미한다. 본 논문에서는 지진발생으로 인한 경제적 영향, 특히 우리나라 교통망이 받는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 우리나라의 고속도로, 교량 및 경제 관련 자료를 수집하여 사용하였고, 지진 등 예상하지 못한 사건의 발생으로 인한 최종수요의 손실과 부문별 생산품의 흐름을 예측하였다.
지진을 기록하기 시작한 후로 우리나라에 발생한 지진은 2000회가 넘는 것으로 집계되고 있으며 그 중 48회는 엄청난 피해를 초래한 것으로 나타난다. 지진으로 인한 생산설비나 주요 관로 등의 시설물피해는 특정 지역에 국한되는 것이 아니라 지역간의 상호 의존적 특성에 의해 경제적으로 볼 때 심각한 피해를 주변에 전달하게 된다. 또한 지진과 같이 예측하지 못하는 사건으로 인해 발생하는 경제적 피해는 단순히 시설붕괴 같은 직접적인 손실뿐만 아니라 당해 시설의 보수나 재건에 소요되는 기간을 통틀어 간접적인 손실이 발생하게 됨을 인지해야 한다. 그런데, 지진 등과 같이 예측하지 못한 사건으로 인한 손실과 피해를 입은 시설 등을 보수보강 하거나 재건하는데 필요한 정부투자나 예산지원 금액을 보다 합리적으로 산정하기 위해서는 피해를 입은 지역내부 뿐만 아니라 그 지역이 관계를 맺고 있는 주변지역과의 직 간접 경제적 손실을 제대로 산출해 낼 필요가 있다. 여기서 직접적인 경제손실이라하면 생산시설이나 공급선의 피해로 인해 발생한 수요-공급관계의 1차적 변화를 의미하며, 간접적인 경제손실은 산업구조상 관계를 맺고 있는 다른 부문에서 나타나는 간접적인 변화를 의미한다. 본 논문에서는 지진발생으로 인한 경제적 영향, 특히 우리나라 교통망이 받는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 우리나라의 고속도로, 교량 및 경제 관련 자료를 수집하여 사용하였고, 지진 등 예상하지 못한 사건의 발생으로 인한 최종수요의 손실과 부문별 생산품의 흐름을 예측하였다.
Total number of recorded earthquakes in Korea is more than 2,000 of which 48 were catastrophic. The impacts from infrastructure damage due to an earthquake to production facilities and lifelines may spread across boundaries of several regions via import-export relationships and can bring serious eco...
Total number of recorded earthquakes in Korea is more than 2,000 of which 48 were catastrophic. The impacts from infrastructure damage due to an earthquake to production facilities and lifelines may spread across boundaries of several regions via import-export relationships and can bring serious economic impact to other regions. The economic impacts from unscheduled events stem not only from the damage and direct losses, but also from the indirect losses during the recovery and reconstruction periods. To recover and reconstruct the facilities and lifelines damaged by unexpected events through investment or government financial aid, both the direct and the indirect economic impacts from an event need to be measured in regional and interregional contexts. Direct economic impact is the direct change of production and demand due to the disruption of production facilities and lifelines from an unexpected event, and indirect economic impact is the change in other sectors due to inter-industry relationships. The purpose of the paper is to analyze various economic impacts of an earthquake, especially impacts on transportation networks in Korea. We collected spatial and economic data from Korea, and analyzed and estimated final demand loss and commodity flows from the unscheduled event.
Total number of recorded earthquakes in Korea is more than 2,000 of which 48 were catastrophic. The impacts from infrastructure damage due to an earthquake to production facilities and lifelines may spread across boundaries of several regions via import-export relationships and can bring serious economic impact to other regions. The economic impacts from unscheduled events stem not only from the damage and direct losses, but also from the indirect losses during the recovery and reconstruction periods. To recover and reconstruct the facilities and lifelines damaged by unexpected events through investment or government financial aid, both the direct and the indirect economic impacts from an event need to be measured in regional and interregional contexts. Direct economic impact is the direct change of production and demand due to the disruption of production facilities and lifelines from an unexpected event, and indirect economic impact is the change in other sectors due to inter-industry relationships. The purpose of the paper is to analyze various economic impacts of an earthquake, especially impacts on transportation networks in Korea. We collected spatial and economic data from Korea, and analyzed and estimated final demand loss and commodity flows from the unscheduled event.
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문제 정의
The indirect impacts such as the long-tem economic impacts have not been the focus of such analyses. The purpose of the paper is to analyze and estimate the socio-economic impacts of network vulnerability caused by natural and man-made disasters, especially impacts on transportation networks in Korea.
제안 방법
ratio. An improved version of the model should be developed and tested to workta a flexible way with a different number of zones at different spatial scdes. This will also provicfe an opportunity to asses다 the economic significance at a local scale, so that policy makers in local government are able to access such information to finalize their decisions.
and Kim, 2006). Consequently, their efforts have been naturally given to the evaluative analysis of the hazards, the minimization of the damages, and the reconstruction strategies for the damaged structures. The indirect impacts such as the long-tem economic impacts have not been the focus of such analyses.
, 2004). Finally, through the hypothetical scenario analysis, we evaluated and verified the performance and applicability of our model. In Section three, we conduct scenario analysis using our model with three different events.
One of the future directions of the research is to find a logical and rational basis for transforming the structural disruption ratio of a bridge directly to its functional disruption ratio. An improved version of the model should be developed and tested to workta a flexible way with a different number of zones at different spatial scdes.
One of the primary contributions of this research is its interdisciplinary nature, which incorporates the areas of civil engineering, transportation planning, re응ional economics, and disaster geography. The methodology adopted in the research was 나sod to construct a decision support system for policy makers on formulating various strategies from ex-ante retrofitting strategies to ex-post strategies for setting recovery priorities.
and disaster geography. The methodology adopted in the research was 나sod to construct a decision support system for policy makers on formulating various strategies from ex-ante retrofitting strategies to ex-post strategies for setting recovery priorities. Through the approach that calculates total system-wide economic loss, the model could provide bases for establishing the retrofit priority and/or repair priorities that is the most efficient from the national economic point of view.
for the scenario analysis. The model consists of interregional commodity flows to meet each region's final and intermediate demand and assesses the direct and indirect damages that an earthquake could cause (Ham, Kim and Boyce 2005b). Lee and Kim (2007) modified the original ICFM model in a spatio-temporal framework, but the original static ICFM model has been used in this paper.
대상 데이터
event. For a spatial dataset, we obtained spatial date for each of the 15 EQAZs; 19 expressways with a total of 322 links, 19 railroads which had a total of 691 links as network data; and 1008 bridge data. Thirty- two sectors of original economic data were ageated t9 sectors as shown in Table 2, and zonal input-output flows of the 9 sectors were calculated in advance.
이론/모형
For the calculation of the transportation system network cost, the integrated commodity flow model (ICFM) developed by Kim, Ham and Boyce (2002) is used for the scenario analysis. The model consists of interregional commodity flows to meet each region's final and intermediate demand and assesses the direct and indirect damages that an earthquake could cause (Ham, Kim and Boyce 2005b).
In this case each iteration of the algorithm uses Wilson's (1970) iterative balancing method to generate the subproblem interregional commodity shipments, and the all-or-nothing assignment method to find the subproblem network link flows.
For the estimation of bridge vulnerability, we modified the Hwang's fragility curves (Hwang and Hou, 1996; Hwang, Jemigan and Lin, 1998) as reported in detail in Lee, Kim and Kang (2007). To estimate the final demand loss and commodity flows under an unscheduled event, the Final Demand Loss Function and the Integrated Commodity Flow Model (ICFM) developed by the authors were used (Sohn et al., 2004). Finally, through the hypothetical scenario analysis, we evaluated and verified the performance and applicability of our model.
성능/효과
1. The network disruption rates (D) are assumed to depend on the disruption ratios for individual bridges since the disruption of the bridges on the highway generates more serious damages to the commodity flows and bridges are hard to be restored in a short period of time.
2. Even after a bridge has been damaged, most economic sectors in the market economies have ability to respond to change. Resilience is a way of characterizing the economic behavior and is defined here as the ability to adjust to changes due to unscheduled events.
Although the damage was not significant, annual commodity flows were affected by the event. The final demand loss reached almost 38, 000 billion won (about 38 billion dollars), and transportation costs arising from the damage was about 14, 000 billion won (abou114 billion dollars).
후속연구
To estimate the current or future economic impacts of an unexpected event, those commodity flow data sets need to be updated. Moreover, it will be a challenge to incorporate the system presented in this research into a more formal cost-benefit analysis.
참고문헌 (15)
Ham, Heejoo, Tschangho John Kim and David E. Boyce (2005a). "Implementation and estimation of a combined model of interregional, multimodal commodity shipments and transportation network flows," Transportation Research Part B, Volume 39, Issue 1, pp.65-79.
Ham, Heejoo, Tschangho John Kim and David E. Boyce (2005b). "Assessment of Economic Impacts from Unexpected Events Using an Interregional Commodity Flow and Network Model," Transportation Research Part A. Vol 39/10, pp. 849-860.
Hwang, H., and J. R. Hou (1996). "Simulation of earthquake acceleration time histories." Technical Report, Center for Earthquake Research and Information, The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN.
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National Earthquake Information System (NEIS) (2006). "Korea Meteorological Administration." http://kmaneis.go.kr/, accessed.
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Rose, A., and Benavides, J. (1998). "Regional economic impacts. Engineering and socioeconomic impacts of earthquakes: An analysis of electricity lifeline disruptions in the New Madrid area." M. Shinozuka, A. Rose, and R. T. Eguch, eds., Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, Buffalo, N.Y., pp.95-123.
Sohn, J., Kim, T.J., Hewings, G.J.D., Lee, J.S., and Jang, S.G., (2003). "Retrofit priority of transport network links under an earthquake." J. Urban Planning & Development, Vol. 129(4), pp.195-210.
Sohn, Jungyul, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Tschangho John Kim, Jong Sung Lee and Sung-Gheel Jang (2004). "Analysis of Economic Impacts of an Earthquake on Transportation Network." in Y Okuyama and S.E. Chang (eds). Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, Springer, Berlin.
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