[논문]가중 HPAI 확산 네트워크에서 중심성 분석: 2008년 한국 김제 지역의 HPAI 발병 사례를 중심으로

이형진; 서교; 정남수; 이인복; 서일환; 문운경; 이정재

doi:10.7851/ksrp.2012.18.4.079

가중 HPAI 확산 네트워크에서 중심성 분석: 2008년 한국 김제 지역의 HPAI 발병 사례를 중심으로
Centrality Measure in Weighted HPAI Transmission Network: The case of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza Virus in Gimje, South Korea in 2008 원문보기

농촌계획 : 韓國農村計劃學會誌, v.18 no.4, 2012년, pp.79 - 89

이형진 (Graduate School, Seoul National University) , 서교 (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) , 정남수 (Department of Rural Construction Engineering, Kongju National University) , 이인복 (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) , 서일환 (Graduate School, Seoul National University) , 문운경 (Animal Plant & Fisheries Quarantine & Inspection Agency) , 이정재 (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University)

초록
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농가를 방문하는 가금관련업체의 관계자 및 차량은 HPAI 질병 확산의 매개체가 된다. 농가들의 가금관련업체 이용 정보를 이용하면 농가간의 연결을 확인할 수 있고 HPAI 확산 가중 네트워크를 구성할 수 있다. 네트워크 분석중 중심성 측정은 질병에 취약하거나 타 농가에 영향력이 큰 역할을 하는 농가를 분석하는 방법으로 HPAI 초기 확산을 통제하는 방법으로 이용된다. 단, HPAI 바이러스는 네트워크의 연결선 가중치에 따라서 확산 경로가 달라질 수 있다. 기존의 분석 방법은 확산 경로에 있어 대치되는 연결선의 강도와 연결선의 수 중 하나만을 고려하기 때문에 질병 확산을 정확히 모의하는데 한계가 있다. 그래서 본 연구에서는 2008년 발병한 한국 김제 지역의 39개 농가를 대상으로 가금관련업체 이용자료를 적용한 HPAI 확산 네트워크에 연결선의 가중치에 지수를 적용하는 방법으로 기존의 방법과 결과를 비교했다. 이 자료는 가금 산업 네트워크의 한국 지역 농가 적용성을 평가 할 수 있을뿐만 아니라 추후 잠재적인 질병 발병 차단을 위한 정보 제공에 중요한 역할을 할 것이다.

주제어

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제안 방법

Frequent visits to poultry premises by associated businesses will accelerate the spread of the HPAI virus. Considering this fact when anlyzing the centrality of a network, this study uses adjusted indexes of ties to bring more meaningful results than existing centrality measures of the weighted network.
Application of this index to the HPAI spread enables the analysis of the characteristics of the spread. In this study, the degree and betweenness centrality of the HPAI transmission network were analyzed for indexes of 0, 0.5, 1 and 1.5, and centrality differences between infected and total premises were calculated.
Officials at the Epidemiological Investigation Department of the Korea National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service conducted investigations to identify possible transmission vectors among the premises. They conducted more than five investigations during a four-month period after the outbreak of the disease and they collected information on the activities of the businesses including shipping and receiving, poultry waste treating, feed, and medicines that the 39 premises utilized.

대상 데이터

In this study, a network was established to simulate the spread of the HPAI virus using information and data on the periodic activities carried out by businesses in areas with a cluster of poultry premises in the Gimje district, South Korea. Frequent visits to poultry premises by associated businesses will accelerate the spread of the HPAI virus.
39 ties per node. The 108 nodes consist of 39 premises, 39 shipping and receiving businesses, 12 animal medicine businesses and 13 feed businesses. There is no direct tie between the premises, but only ties between the premises and the businesses.

데이터처리

The odds ratio is a measurement of the scale affecting the diseases. The odds ratio of each business was calculated using probability analysis.

이론/모형

In this study, the degree of importance placed on the transmission causes was determined through logistic regression analysis using information on the poultry-related businesses used by 98 premises which were epidemiologically investigated during the outbreak in 2008. A network was established based on the survey results and the centrality measure of SNA was used. Taking the 2008 outbreak case into consideration, effective measurements were proposed to prevent the HPAI viruses from spreading at their earliest stages.

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