본 논문은 중력모형을 이용해서 환경규제가 한국의 수출량, 총무역량 및 국제경쟁력에 어떤 영향을 미치는가를 규명해 보는 것이다. 고정효과 추정방법을 이용해서 전 산업, 비 환경오염산업, 16개 환경오염산업을 대상으로 추정하였으며, 자료는 한국과 교역량이 많은 120개 국가를 선정하여 2000년-2010년 사이의 산업패널자료와 환경성과지수(EPI)를 환경규제의 대리변수로 사용하였다. 분석 결과 한국과 교역상대국의 국내총생산량이 한국의 무역을 신장시키는데 큰 영향을 미친 변수라면, 교역상대국의 환경규제는 한국의 오염산업의 수출과 무역량을 감소시키고 국제경쟁력을 떨어뜨리는 무역장벽의 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 분석기간 동안 비 오염산업에서는 이러한 환경규제효과가 극명하게 나타나지 않았다. 개별 산업에 대한 분석 결과 상당한 비중의 오염산업들이 교역상대국의 환경규제에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이런 관점에서 동기간 사이에 한국의 무역에 있어서는 포터가설은 성립하지 않는 것으로 보인다.
본 논문은 중력모형을 이용해서 환경규제가 한국의 수출량, 총무역량 및 국제경쟁력에 어떤 영향을 미치는가를 규명해 보는 것이다. 고정효과 추정방법을 이용해서 전 산업, 비 환경오염산업, 16개 환경오염산업을 대상으로 추정하였으며, 자료는 한국과 교역량이 많은 120개 국가를 선정하여 2000년-2010년 사이의 산업패널자료와 환경성과지수(EPI)를 환경규제의 대리변수로 사용하였다. 분석 결과 한국과 교역상대국의 국내총생산량이 한국의 무역을 신장시키는데 큰 영향을 미친 변수라면, 교역상대국의 환경규제는 한국의 오염산업의 수출과 무역량을 감소시키고 국제경쟁력을 떨어뜨리는 무역장벽의 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 분석기간 동안 비 오염산업에서는 이러한 환경규제효과가 극명하게 나타나지 않았다. 개별 산업에 대한 분석 결과 상당한 비중의 오염산업들이 교역상대국의 환경규제에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이런 관점에서 동기간 사이에 한국의 무역에 있어서는 포터가설은 성립하지 않는 것으로 보인다.
This paper analyzes the three issues related to the effect of environmental regulations on the Korean trades with gravity equation model: the effect on the Korean exports, the bilateral trade flows between the Korea and the trade partners, and the Korean international competitiveness. For all three ...
This paper analyzes the three issues related to the effect of environmental regulations on the Korean trades with gravity equation model: the effect on the Korean exports, the bilateral trade flows between the Korea and the trade partners, and the Korean international competitiveness. For all three issues we carried the empirical tests with fixed effect estimation methods for total industries, non-pollution industries, pollution industries, and also 16 individual pollution industries. We use industry panel data for the 120 largest trading countries with Korea for the years 2000-2010. The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) is used as the proxy variable for the environmental regulation. The empirical result shows that while GDPs of both Korea and its trading partners are very important factors affecting positively the Korean trades for all industries, the environmental regulation of the importing country would be a definite trade barrier to the Korean pollution industries, but not a definite one for the non-pollution industries. In addition, the stricter environmental regulations of Korea's trade partners would weaken the Korean international competitiveness of Korean pollution industries. In this regard, the Porter Hypothesis would have not appeared in the Korean trades of pollution industries during the period observed in this study.
This paper analyzes the three issues related to the effect of environmental regulations on the Korean trades with gravity equation model: the effect on the Korean exports, the bilateral trade flows between the Korea and the trade partners, and the Korean international competitiveness. For all three issues we carried the empirical tests with fixed effect estimation methods for total industries, non-pollution industries, pollution industries, and also 16 individual pollution industries. We use industry panel data for the 120 largest trading countries with Korea for the years 2000-2010. The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) is used as the proxy variable for the environmental regulation. The empirical result shows that while GDPs of both Korea and its trading partners are very important factors affecting positively the Korean trades for all industries, the environmental regulation of the importing country would be a definite trade barrier to the Korean pollution industries, but not a definite one for the non-pollution industries. In addition, the stricter environmental regulations of Korea's trade partners would weaken the Korean international competitiveness of Korean pollution industries. In this regard, the Porter Hypothesis would have not appeared in the Korean trades of pollution industries during the period observed in this study.
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문제 정의
This paper has discussed the issue of the effect of a country’s environmental regulations on the international competitiveness and trade flows, with the case between Korea and its trade partners and gravity equation model.
가설 설정
The Hausman test is to test H0 : Cov(Xkit , αkj ) = 0,H1 : Cov(Xkit , αkj ) ≠ 0.
A group of economists as well as policy makers and businessmen have paid attention to the issue of environmental regulation and international competitiveness in both academic and real world. The overall question is: Are the environmental regulations harmful for the international competitiveness of the firms or not? Some insist the stringent environmental regulations seem to be harmful since the more stringent environmental regulations raise the production cost of the firms, resulting in the negative effects on its exports (Brock and Taylor(2005), Copeland and Taylor(2003)). On the other hand, the Porter Hypothesis, initiated by Porter(1991) and Porter and van der Linde (1995), argued that the harmful effect of the environmental regulations would be short run, and a country would become a net exporter potentially due to the positive technological innovation effect induced by more stringent environmental regulations in the long run.
제안 방법
If we reject the null hypothesis that the unobserved effect of individual country data and the explanatory variable are uncorrelated to each other, we will choose the fixed effect model, and vice versa. The result of the Hausman test shows that the fixed effect model is more appropriate than the random effect model since the null hypothesis is rejected with 1% significance level in our study, so that most of our analyses will be carried with the fixed effect model. As mentioned before, however, we cannot estimate the coefficients of the time-invariant explanatory variables such as distance between two countries with the fixed effect model.
This paper also takes up this issue of the effect of a country’s environmental regulations on the international competitiveness and trade flows, with the case between Korea and its trade partners and gravity equation model.
In section II the gravity equation models adopted are introduced. Three gravity equations will be used for testing three issues considered in this paper. The Section III discusses dataset.
이론/모형
The choice between these two models can be done through the Hausman test. The Hausman test is to test H0 : Cov(Xkit , αkj ) = 0,H1 : Cov(Xkit , αkj ) ≠ 0.
성능/효과
For all three categories of industries considered, GDPs of both Korea and trade partners have positive relationships with Korea’s exports, as expected, which is statistically significant at the 1% level of significance.
Fourth, the stricter environmental regulations of Korea’s trade partners would reduce the international competitiveness of Korean pollution industries and would increase the international competitiveness of the Korean non-pollution industries.
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