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NTIS 바로가기지능정보연구 = Journal of intelligence and information systems, v.19 no.2, 2013년, pp.101 - 123
고재창 (성균관대학교 기술경영학과) , 조근태 (성균관대학교 기술경영학과) , 조윤호 (국민대학교 경영학부)
Recently due to the advancements of science and information technology, the socio-economic business areas are changing from the industrial economy to a knowledge economy. Furthermore, companies need to do creation of new value through continuous innovation, development of core competencies and techn...
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핵심어 | 질문 | 논문에서 추출한 답변 |
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델파이 기법이란 무엇인가? | 기술경영연구에서 미래기술을 예측하기 위해 많이 사용되는 방법으로는 델파이(Delphi) 기법 및 시나리오(Scenario) 기법 등이 있다. 델파이 기법은 미래예측 등 주어진 문제에 대하여 전문가들의 의견을 수렴하고 종합하는 방법이며(Dalkey and Helmer, 1963; Dalkey, 1967), 시나리오 기법은 복잡하고 불확실한 미래 환경변화에 대해 예측한 시나리오를 작성하여 모든 가능한 상황에 유연하게 대응할 수 있도록 하는 예측기법이다(Jung, 2006). 그러나 이러한 미래예측 방법들은 분석과정이 직관적이지 못하고, 결과에 대한 신뢰성이 부족한 한계점이 있다. | |
기술경영관련 연구의 거시적인 흐름을 분석하게 된 배경은 무엇인가? | 최근 경제 패러다임의 변화로 인해 기업이 글로벌 경쟁우위 및 미래 성장동력 확보하기 위해서는 기술과 경영을 통합적으로 이해할 수 있는 학제적 지식을 바탕으로 기술연구의 동향을 파악하고 융합기술 및 유망기술 예측하여 지속적 혁신, 핵심역량 강화, 핵심기술 보유, 기술 융합 등을 통해 새로운 가치를 창출할 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 기술경영관련 연구의 거시적인 흐름을 분석하기 위해 동시단어 분석기반의 계량서지학적 방법론을 사용하였다. | |
기술경영연구에서 미래기술을 예측할 때 많이 사용되는 방법에는 무엇이 있는가? | 기술경영연구에서 미래기술을 예측하기 위해 많이 사용되는 방법으로는 델파이(Delphi) 기법 및 시나리오(Scenario) 기법 등이 있다. 델파이 기법은 미래예측 등 주어진 문제에 대하여 전문가들의 의견을 수렴하고 종합하는 방법이며(Dalkey and Helmer, 1963; Dalkey, 1967), 시나리오 기법은 복잡하고 불확실한 미래 환경변화에 대해 예측한 시나리오를 작성하여 모든 가능한 상황에 유연하게 대응할 수 있도록 하는 예측기법이다(Jung, 2006). |
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