[논문]비선형 저차 기후모델 개발과 모의된 ENSO 특징

위지은; 문병권

doi:10.5467/jkess.2015.36.7.611

비선형 저차 기후모델 개발과 모의된 ENSO 특징
Development of Nonlinear Low-Order Climate Model and Simulated ENSO Characteristics 원문보기

한국지구과학회지 = Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society, v.36 no.7, 2015년, pp.611 - 616

초록
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엘니뇨와 남방진동(엔소)은 변동 주기가 2-8년으로 넓게 걸쳐있으며 그 진폭과 주기 또한 천천히 변하는데 이런 특징을 각각 엔소 불규칙성과 엔소 변조라 한다. 이 연구는 비선형 대기 변동성을 나타나는 Lorenz-63 모형과 간단한 충전 진동자 모형을 결합함으로써 비선형 저차 기후모델을 개발하였다. 이 모델은 동태평양의 해수면 온도 변동의 중심주기, 넓은 주기성, 강도의 수십 년 변동 등과 같은 관측에서 보이는 엔소 특징을 잘 재현하였다. 이것은 대기 카오스 강제력이 엔소의 불규칙성과 변조를 이끌 수 있음을 보여준다. 덧붙여 모델은 서태평양 온난역의 대류활동이 강해지면 라니냐 발생 가능성이 높아지는 것을 제시하였다. 이 모델은 간단하면서도 적도 태평양의 대기-해양 비선형 상호작용을 잘 모사하고 있기에 향후 장기 기후변화 연구에 활동될 것으로 기대된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a broad band (2-8 year) variability and slowly changing amplitude and period, which are respectively referred to as ENSO irregularity and ENSO modulation. In this study, we developed a nonlinear low-order climate model by combining the Lorenz-63 model of nonlinear atmospheric variability and a simple ENSO model with recharge oscillator characteristics. The model successfully reproduced the ENSO-like variations in the sea surface temperature of eastern Pacific, such as the peak period, wide periodicity, and decadal modulations. The results show that the chaotic atmospheric forcing can lead to ENSO irregularity and ENSO modulation. It is also suggested the high probability of La Nina development could be associated with strong convection of the western warm pool. Although it is simple, this model is expected to be used in research on long-term climate change because it well captures the nonlinear air-sea interactions in the equatorial Pacific.

주제어

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문제 정의

However, they did not investigate the effect of deterministic nonlinearity inherent in the atmospheric motions. The purpose of this study is to develop a new low-order climate model that reproduces ENSO nonlinearity and ENSO modulation characteristics, and illustrate changes in ENSO according to the convection of the tropical western Pacific.

제안 방법

These values are listed in Table 1. The model was numerically integrated using the ode45 function, which is a differential equation solver in Matlab, and the initial value (X, Y, Z, T, h)=(0, 1, 0, 0, 2) represents the nearly state of no convection in the western Pacific, maximum heat in the tropical Pacific, and neutral SST anomaly in the eastern Pacific. The model was spun up for 100 years and then integrated for 300 years.
A nonlinear low-order climate model was developed by combining the L63 model, which describes the nonlinearity of the atmosphere, and the J07 model, which has the ENSO dynamics of the tropical Pacific. To develop the model equation system, the state variable X in L63 was assumed to represent the convection in the western Pacific, and the negative correlation between the observed convection intensity and ENSO phase was used. In addition, the response of the ocean to the nonlinear atmospheric forcing was implemented by removing the stochastic forcing term in J07 and replacing it with the chaotic atmospheric forcing term.
, 2014). To investigate the ENSO modulation in the simulation, we further perform a wavelet analysis on T time series. Figure 4 shows the normalized wavelet power spectrum using the Morlet wavelet (Torrence and Compo, 1998).

성능/효과

The long-term numerical integration results (300 yrs) showed that the model produced results similar to the observed ENSO nonlinear properties, irregularity and modulation. The simulated eastern Pacific SST anomaly well reproduced the 2-8 year broad band periodicities centered at about 40 months and the ENSO modulation, in which the amplitude and peak period of interannual variability changed slowly over decades.

참고문헌 (25)

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