강우의 비정상성을 고려한 청미천 유역의 미래 침수특성 분석 Future Inundation Characteristics Analysis for the Cheongmi Stream Watershed Considering Non-stationarity of Precipitation원문보기
Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstable tendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage in downtow...
Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstable tendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage in downtown and agricultural areas by rainfall that exceeds the design criteria of hydraulic structures. In order to minimize natural disaster damage, it is necessary to analyze how extreme precipitation event changes under climate change. Therefore a new design criteria based on non-stationarity frequency analysis is needed to consider a tendency of future extreme precipitation event and to prepare countermeasures to climate change. And a quantitative and objective characteristic analysis could be a key to preparing countermeasures to climate change impact. In this study, non-stationarity frequency analysis was performed and inundation risk indices developed by 4 inundation characteristics (e.g. inundation area, inundation depth, inundation duration, and inundation radius) were assessed. The study results showed that future probable rainfall could exceed the existing design criteria of hydraulic structures (rivers of state: 100yr-200yr, river banks: 50yr-100yr) reaching over 500yr frequency probable rainfall of the past. Inundation characteristics showed higher value in the future compared to the past, especially in sections with tributary stream inflow. Also, the inundation risk indices were estimated as 0.14 for the past period of 1973-2015, and 0.25, 0.29, 1.27 for the future period of 2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze future inundation damage and to establish management solutions for rivers with inundation risks.
Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstable tendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage in downtown and agricultural areas by rainfall that exceeds the design criteria of hydraulic structures. In order to minimize natural disaster damage, it is necessary to analyze how extreme precipitation event changes under climate change. Therefore a new design criteria based on non-stationarity frequency analysis is needed to consider a tendency of future extreme precipitation event and to prepare countermeasures to climate change. And a quantitative and objective characteristic analysis could be a key to preparing countermeasures to climate change impact. In this study, non-stationarity frequency analysis was performed and inundation risk indices developed by 4 inundation characteristics (e.g. inundation area, inundation depth, inundation duration, and inundation radius) were assessed. The study results showed that future probable rainfall could exceed the existing design criteria of hydraulic structures (rivers of state: 100yr-200yr, river banks: 50yr-100yr) reaching over 500yr frequency probable rainfall of the past. Inundation characteristics showed higher value in the future compared to the past, especially in sections with tributary stream inflow. Also, the inundation risk indices were estimated as 0.14 for the past period of 1973-2015, and 0.25, 0.29, 1.27 for the future period of 2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze future inundation damage and to establish management solutions for rivers with inundation risks.
특히 최근 들어 여름철 집중호우 및 태풍으로 하천 수위가 상승하여 하천범람, 제방 붕괴 및 유실로 인한 침수 피해에 따른 침수특성 변화를 분석하고 이에 따른 대응대책을 수립할 필요가 있다. 침수 피해와 관련하여 통계연보 (통계청), 재해연보(국민안전처), 침수흔적도 (국민안전처, 대한지적공사), 재해정보지도 (국민안전처), 홍수위험지도 (국토교통부) 등 통계자료 및 재해위험지도가 제공되고 있으며, 국내외 많은 연구자들이 다양한 방법으로 침수지도, 침수피해지표, 내수침수위험도, 제방 월류 취약성 등 침수위험도를 평가하고 있다. 하지만 이는 침수 피해 사례 혹은 수문・수리분석을 토대로 산정되어 작성되고 있으며 기후변화를 고려하여 미래 침수 피해에 따른 침수위험도 평가는 아직 미흡한 실정이다.
기후변화로 야기된 현상은 어떠한 것들이 있는가?
최근 기후변화 영향으로 전 지구적으로 이상기후가 발생함에 따라 강우 패턴 변화, 수자원 변화 등 수문학적 시스템의 변화가 야기되고 있다. 지난 100여 년간 지구온난화와 함께 전 지구적으로 평균 지표온도가 약 0.
다가올 미래에 현재 수공구조물 설계 기준에 대한 재고가 필요한 이유는 무엇인가?
기후변화로 인한 자연재해 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 수공구조물의 설계 기준을 넘어서는 극한강수사상의 변화 양상을 분석할 필요가 있다. 현재 수공구조물의 설계 기준이 되는 확률강우량은 강우자료의 평균, 표준편차와 같은 통계적 특성이 장기간 동안 변하지 않고 일정하다는 정상성(Stationarity) 가정 하에 빈도해석을 통해 계산되고 있다. 하지만 강우자료는 항상 정상성을 갖는다고 볼 수 없으며, 정상성 기반 강우빈도해석을 통해서는 기후변화 영향으로 최근 진행되고 있는 극한강수의 증가 경향을 반영하지 못한다. 다가올 미래에는 현재 수공구조물 설계 기준에 대한 재고가 필요하며, 따라서 미래 극한강수사상의 경향성을 반영할 수 있는 비정상성 기반 강우빈도해석을 고려한 설계 기준을 마련하여 기후변화 대응대책을 수립할 필요가 있다.
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