[국내논문]퍼지 다기준 의사결정분석을 통한 해외 독립발전사업 사업금융 리스크 분석 Risk Evaluation of the Project Finance for Overseas Independent Power Projects Using a Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis원문보기
이 논문의 목적은 IPPs에서 발생할 수 있는 리스크 요소를 규정하고 퍼지 다기준 결정 방법론(Fuzzy MCDM)을 활용하여 사업 리스크의 우선순위와 가중치의 중요도를 분석함으로써 IPP 개발자에게 투자 의사결정 도구를 제공하는 것이다. Fuzzy MCDM은 응답자의 고유한 의견을 표현할 때 발생할 수 있는 불확실성을 보다 명시적으로 반영할 수 있는 추정방법이다. 이 논문은 광범위한 문헌 조사를 통해 신용 리스크, 준공 리스크, 시장 리스크, 연료조달 리스크, 운영 리스크, 재무 리스크, 환경 리스크, 그리고 불가항력 등 PF조달과 관련한 8 개의 주요 사업리스크를 도출한다. 실증분석 결과는 시장 리스크가 사업리스크와 관련된 의사결정에서 있어 가장 중요한 리스크임을 보여준다. 이는 IPP에서 장기 전력판매계약이 가장 중요한 리스크 요소임을 보여주고 있으며, 점차 발주국 정부의 장기 전력판매계약에 대한 보증이 없는 자유시장에서 전력을 판매하는 소위 머천트 발전사업에서 시장 리스크를 줄이는 것이 중요함을 암시한다.
이 논문의 목적은 IPPs에서 발생할 수 있는 리스크 요소를 규정하고 퍼지 다기준 결정 방법론(Fuzzy MCDM)을 활용하여 사업 리스크의 우선순위와 가중치의 중요도를 분석함으로써 IPP 개발자에게 투자 의사결정 도구를 제공하는 것이다. Fuzzy MCDM은 응답자의 고유한 의견을 표현할 때 발생할 수 있는 불확실성을 보다 명시적으로 반영할 수 있는 추정방법이다. 이 논문은 광범위한 문헌 조사를 통해 신용 리스크, 준공 리스크, 시장 리스크, 연료조달 리스크, 운영 리스크, 재무 리스크, 환경 리스크, 그리고 불가항력 등 PF조달과 관련한 8 개의 주요 사업리스크를 도출한다. 실증분석 결과는 시장 리스크가 사업리스크와 관련된 의사결정에서 있어 가장 중요한 리스크임을 보여준다. 이는 IPP에서 장기 전력판매계약이 가장 중요한 리스크 요소임을 보여주고 있으며, 점차 발주국 정부의 장기 전력판매계약에 대한 보증이 없는 자유시장에서 전력을 판매하는 소위 머천트 발전사업에서 시장 리스크를 줄이는 것이 중요함을 암시한다.
The purpose of this paper is the provision of a decision-making tool for developers to identify the project risks for under-consideration overseas independent power projects (IPPs), and to analyze the priority and importance weights of the risks through the employment of a fuzzy multi-criteria decis...
The purpose of this paper is the provision of a decision-making tool for developers to identify the project risks for under-consideration overseas independent power projects (IPPs), and to analyze the priority and importance weights of the risks through the employment of a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach. A fuzzy MCDM is the calculation method for which the imprecision of each respondent's unique opinion is considered. Through the extensive literature surveys that were conducted for this paper, eight major project finance (PF) risks have been derived credit risk, completion risk, market risk, fuel risk, operating risk, financial risk, environmental risk, and force majeure. The empirical results show that the market risk is the most important risk factor in terms of overseas IPPs, thereby confirming that the long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) guarantee of the host country is one of the most important corresponding factors for the PF.
The purpose of this paper is the provision of a decision-making tool for developers to identify the project risks for under-consideration overseas independent power projects (IPPs), and to analyze the priority and importance weights of the risks through the employment of a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach. A fuzzy MCDM is the calculation method for which the imprecision of each respondent's unique opinion is considered. Through the extensive literature surveys that were conducted for this paper, eight major project finance (PF) risks have been derived credit risk, completion risk, market risk, fuel risk, operating risk, financial risk, environmental risk, and force majeure. The empirical results show that the market risk is the most important risk factor in terms of overseas IPPs, thereby confirming that the long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) guarantee of the host country is one of the most important corresponding factors for the PF.
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문제 정의
IPPs are exposed to their own risks, and these can lead to the deterioration of the project economics. Therefore, the focus of this paper comprises the uncertainty-based project risks.
Especially for overseas IPPs, a large-scale funding capacity is essential. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is the provision of decision-making aid for domestic firms that can implement such tools for overseas IPPs by evaluating the corresponding PF risk factors and analyzing the priority and importance weights of the risks that need to be considered.
A risk evaluation is at the core of the PF [18], when an overseas IPP is implemented. This paper reviews the requisite risk factors for a risk analysis or an evaluation regarding the PF for overseas IPPs, and their relative importance and weights are induced. It is not an exaggeration to state that all of the risks are significant and that they cannot be neglected in the IPP implementation.
The project risks are different depending on a project’s parties; that is, according to the sponsors developing the project, the lenders providing the PF loans, the EPC contractors, and the host country, discrepancies can emerge regarding their viewpoints on the project risks. This study attempts to analyze the PF project risks for overseas IPPs in consideration of the perspectives of both developers and lenders.
That is, the project companies use less leverage and instead rely more on off-take agreements when the control benefits of the cash flow from the project are high, suggesting that the leveraging and contractual structures of the project company are important hedging mechanisms. This study suggests that the capital and contractual structures play a critical role in the PF risk-management strategy.
제안 방법
Because the IPP developers adopt the market risk with the highest weight and ranking in this study, they should conduct a deep risk analysis in terms of the MPPs.
Comparing to precedent studies, this paper has a further significance of employing a fuzzy MCDM analysis to induce the weighting values of the project risks and attempting to evaluating feasible study as a case study of a number of virtual IPPs. In addition, this paper has a meaningful result of confirming that the market risk is the most important risk factor in the IPPs as it is expected.
For this paper, a fuzzy MCDM analysis was applied to identify the significance of the various risk factors of the IPPs for which a case study of a number of virtual IPPs was used. A fuzzy MCDM can induce the weighting values of respondents through a calculation method for which the imprecision of each respondent’s expression of her or his unique opinion is considered and compared with those of the AHP and the MAUT, and it can be employed for the uncertainty analysis.
For this paper, a fuzzy MCDM approach is therefore used for which the FST is applied to induce the weight values of the risk factors in overseas IPPs, and risk evaluations of a number of virtual IPPs are attempted for the case study. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 is a review of the literature surveys on the IPP risks and explains the risk factors that are adopted here, Section 3 describes the procedures of the application of the fuzzy MCDM approach, Section 4 reports the empirical results and the potential uses of the results, and Section 5 discusses the policy implications of the present work.
In this paper, triangular fuzzy numbers are used throughout the analysis to quantify the vagueness that is inherent in the financial estimates such as the periodic cash flows, interest rates and inflation rates, the experts’ linguistic assessments for the strategic justification criteria, and the importance weight of each criterion.
A fuzzy MCDM approach induces the weighting values of the respondents through the calculation method for which the imprecision of each respondent in the expression of her or his unique opinion is considered. Subsequently, the total integral values of each attribute are derived by aggregating the weighting of the attributes that each respondent evaluates. Lastly, whether any of the attributes are more important than the others is analyzed to help the decision-makers make an overall decision.
The three PPP-project phases with different risk profiles are as follows: development, construction, and operation phase. This paper shows nine of the risks that are faced in any infrastructure project, as follows: technical, construction, operating, revenue, financial, force-majeure, regulatory and political, environmental, and project-default risks.
To obtain the FST judgments regarding the attributes, a survey was administered to the experts and workers among the IPP developers, an ECA, and related fields. The survey was carried over the course of approximately one month, from September 5 to October 4 in 2016.
성능/효과
For the case study, three different project alternatives (projects X, Y, and Z), which have their own project risk profiles located at different countries, were assumed as shown in [Table 4]. For the simplification of the analysis, the project costs of all of the project alternatives were assumed as equal to the coal-fired plant with a flue gas desulphurization (FGD) in terms of factors such as the capacity, capacity factor, life time, and combustion option, among others.
Reference [28] examined the determination of the credit-risk premium regarding the infrastructure projects in the country-risk environments of developing countries. The key finding is that the financial market seems to impose a high-risk premium on the loans to countries with high inflation. Because from 1980 to 1990, most of the developing countries did not have good investment grade ratings to secure foreign investments, they needed to provide foreign investors with various kinds of governmental guarantees such as a power off-take, a fuel supply, currency convertibility, and a law changeability.
The overall results show that the market risk is the most important risk factor in the IPP risk-related decision-making processes, and this is sequentially followed by the credit risk and the completion risk. The market risk relates to revenue shortfalls that are the result of overly optimistic projections in terms of the quantity of the sold output, the sales price, or a combination of both.
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