Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are essential for forecasting one-day-ahead solar irradiance. In order to evaluate the performance of the WRF in forecasting solar irradiance over the Korean Peninsula, we compared WRF prediction data ...
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are essential for forecasting one-day-ahead solar irradiance. In order to evaluate the performance of the WRF in forecasting solar irradiance over the Korean Peninsula, we compared WRF prediction data from 2008 to 2010 corresponding to weather observation data (OBS) from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The WRF model showed poor performance at polluted regions such as Seoul and Suwon where the relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) is over 30%. Predictions by the WRF model alone had a large amount of potential error because of the lack of actual aerosol radiative feedbacks. For the purpose of reducing this error induced by atmospheric particles, i.e., aerosols, the WRF model was coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The coupled system makes it possible to estimate the radiative feedbacks of aerosols on the solar irradiance. As a result, the solar irradiance estimated by the coupled system showed a strong dependence on both the aerosol spatial distributions and the associated optical properties. In the NF (No Feedback) case, which refers to the WRF-only stimulated system without aerosol feedbacks, the GHI was overestimated by $50-200W\;m^{-2}$ compared with OBS derived values at each site. In the YF (Yes Feedback) case, in contrast, which refers to the WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system, the rRMSE was significantly improved by 3.1-3.7% at Suwon and Seoul where the Particulate Matter (PM) concentrations, specifically, those related to the $PM_{10}$ size fraction, were over $100{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$. Thus, the coupled system showed promise for acquiring more accurate solar irradiance forecasts.
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are essential for forecasting one-day-ahead solar irradiance. In order to evaluate the performance of the WRF in forecasting solar irradiance over the Korean Peninsula, we compared WRF prediction data from 2008 to 2010 corresponding to weather observation data (OBS) from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The WRF model showed poor performance at polluted regions such as Seoul and Suwon where the relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) is over 30%. Predictions by the WRF model alone had a large amount of potential error because of the lack of actual aerosol radiative feedbacks. For the purpose of reducing this error induced by atmospheric particles, i.e., aerosols, the WRF model was coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The coupled system makes it possible to estimate the radiative feedbacks of aerosols on the solar irradiance. As a result, the solar irradiance estimated by the coupled system showed a strong dependence on both the aerosol spatial distributions and the associated optical properties. In the NF (No Feedback) case, which refers to the WRF-only stimulated system without aerosol feedbacks, the GHI was overestimated by $50-200W\;m^{-2}$ compared with OBS derived values at each site. In the YF (Yes Feedback) case, in contrast, which refers to the WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system, the rRMSE was significantly improved by 3.1-3.7% at Suwon and Seoul where the Particulate Matter (PM) concentrations, specifically, those related to the $PM_{10}$ size fraction, were over $100{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$. Thus, the coupled system showed promise for acquiring more accurate solar irradiance forecasts.
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제안 방법
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the forecasting system for solar irradiance based on an NWP model over the Korean Peninsula, and modeled data were compared with measured data to identify sources of uncertainties in the system. First, long-term predictions for the Korean Peninsula from 2008 to 2010 were obtained by using the WRF model, and the dataset showed high solar irradiance values in the southeastern inland area. Seasonally, the solar irradiance was higher during summer and lower during winter because of the changes in the solar altitude, duration of daylight hours, and weather conditions.
, 2009). In this study, aerosol effects on solar irradiance forecasting were applied by employing a WRFCMAQ coupled system (where CMAQ is the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, version 5.0.2); specifically, results from the coupled system (Yes Feedback: YF) were compared to that from the control experiment (No Feedback: NF) where the WRF model was applied alone. The WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system was developed by the U.
9. Results for the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), and Diffused Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) from the YF experiment. Lower panels shows the differences in GHI, DNI, and DIF between the YF and NF experiments (YF – NF).
5. Spatial distribution of accumulated solar irradiance for each season over the Korean Peninsula as computed from the WRF predictions. Spatial variability of the solar irradiance was largest during the summer season.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the forecasting system for solar irradiance based on an NWP model over the Korean Peninsula, and modeled data were compared with measured data to identify sources of uncertainties in the system. First, long-term predictions for the Korean Peninsula from 2008 to 2010 were obtained by using the WRF model, and the dataset showed high solar irradiance values in the southeastern inland area.
This study aims to (1) evaluate the NWP model performance for producing solar irradiance estimates over the Korean Peninsula, and this was done by comparing modeling results to observed data collected by the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA), and (2) determine how much the variability and properties of aerosols will affect the solar irradiance estimates, especially in severely polluted areas. A coupled NWP - Air Quality Model (AQM) system is introduced to quantify the radiative feedbacks of aerosols and improve the accuracy of solar irradiance predictions.
Because of these features, when the concentration of airborne dust in the atmosphere fluctuates, the prediction error increases. This study used a WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system to quantify aerosol direct effects on solar irradiance forecasting.
대상 데이터
For this study, the emission inventories were obtained from the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B (INTEX-B) at intervals of 0.5° in areas covering East Asia (Zhang et al., 2009).
Land cover data from the Environmental Geographic Information System (EGIS) with horizontal resolutions of 30 m were used in WRF, and these data were provided by Korea’s Ministry of Environment.
Although the WRF-CMAQ model was recently developed and verified through forest fire tests, no studies have implemented this system for predicting solar irradiance. The experiment was conducted on December 20, 2010, which is when the concentration of PM10 was high throughout the urban areas. As a result, reductions in solar irradiance occurred in the mid-western inland areas where the PM10 concentration was particularly high.
Because aerosols can have a large effect on the solar irradiance on such days, more deviations between the measurements and the predictions are to be expected. The modeled data were verified with the solar irradiance data collected at 22 weather stations for the same period from 2008 to 2010. The locations of the weather stations are depicted in Fig.
이론/모형
Physics in the WRF model comprise radiation, microphysics, land surface, boundary layer, and cloud physics (NCAR, 2015). In this study, the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) was chosen as the radiation model. With this model, it is possible to compute the extinction process for shortwave radiation in the atmosphere caused by aerosols.
The CMAQ is a sub-model of the WRF model in this system. The AOD, SSA, and AF are introduced into the radiation model within WRF through a coupler based on the components of aerosols and the associated size distributions that were calculated by the CMAQ model. The CMAQ model requires emission data along with meteorological data as shown Fig.
성능/효과
By comparing the results of the WRF model’s longterm predictions with observed data at representative sites, it is apparent that in large cities with severe air pollution, predictions derived by the WRF model alone have a large amount of potential error because of the lack of actual aerosol radiative feedbacks.
In contrast, less solar irradiance occurred along the east coast including in the region of the Taebaek Mountains where terrain-induced clouds appeared more frequently (Park and Lee, 2007). It should be noted that the WRF model results for solar irradiance in the mid-western areas including Seoul, Suwon, and Daejeon are clearly higher than the actual solar irradiance obtained from the weather station data.
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