[논문]고병원성 조류인플루엔자(HPAI) 발생농가 입지특성

김동현; 배선학

doi:10.11108/kagis.2020.23.4.140

고병원성 조류인플루엔자(HPAI) 발생농가 입지특성
Locational Characteristics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza(HPAI) Outbreak Farm 원문보기

한국지리정보학회지 = Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, v.23 no.4, 2020년, pp.140 - 155

김동현 (강원대학교 일반대학원 스마트지역혁신학과) , 배선학 (강원대학교 지리교육과)

초록
AI-Helper

본 연구는 가축질병이 밀집되어 발생했던 지역인 경기도 남부-충청도의 감염농가 입지 특성을 파악하여 가금농가의 질병 발생 확률을 분석하고 조건에 해당하는 지역을 도출하여 가축질병 발생예방과 차별적인 방역지역 선정 및 방역전략 설정의 근거와 보완대책의 기초자료로 사용하기 위해 수행되었다. 로지스틱 회귀분석 결과, 반경 3km내 가금농가 1개가 증가하면 HPAI에 감염될 확률이 전 단위에 비해 10.9% 증가한다. 2차선 이상 주요 도로와의 거리 1m가 증가하면 HPAI에 감염될 확률이 전 단위에 비해 0.001% 감소한다. 주요 철새도래지와의 15km 이내에 가금농가가 위치한 경우에서 15~30km로 변화하면 HPAI에 감염될 확률이 46.0% 감소한다. 주요 철새도래지와의 거리가 15km 이내에 가금농가가 위치한 경우에서 30km 이상으로 변화하면 HPAI에 감염될 확률이 88.5% 감소한다. 로지스틱 회귀분석 결과를 바탕으로 예측확률을 생성하고 도출된 입지요인인' 반경 3km내 가금농가 15개 초과, 주요 도로와의 거리 1km이내, 주요 철새도래지와의 거리 30 km이내'의 실제 지역을 도출하고 감염 비율을 측정하였다. 본 연구의 결과가 지역 내에서 가축질병이 발생할 확률이 높은 지역을 판별하여, 방역 주체가 대상 지역과 농가에 대해 선제적 방역을 실시하거나 차량을 통제하는 등의 차별적인 방역지역과 방역전략을 설정할 때, 그 근거와 보완대책 마련에 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이라 기대한다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This study was conducted to identify the location characteristics of infected farms in the areas where livestock diseases were clustered(southern Gyeonggi-do and Chungcheong-do), analyze the probability of disease occurrence in poultry farms, find out the areas corresponding to the conditions, and use them as the basis for prevention of livestock diseases, selection of discriminatory prevention zones, and establishment of prevention strategies and as the basic data for complementary measures. The increase of one poultry farm within a radius of 3-kilometers increases the risk of HPAI infection by 10.9% compared to the previous situation. The increase of 1m in distance from major roads with two lanes or more reduces the probability of HPAI infection by 0.001% compared to the previous situation. If the distance of the poultry farm located with 15 kilometers from a major migratory bird habitat increases by 15 to 30 kilometers, the chance of infection with HPAI is reduced by 46.0%. And if the distance of the same poultry farm increase by more than 30 kilometers, the chances of HPAI infection are reduced by 88.5%. Based on the results of logistic regression, the predicted probability was generated and the actual area of the location condition with 'more than 15 poultry farms within 3km a radius of, within 1km distance from major roads, and within 30km distance from major migratory birds habitat was determined and the infection rate was measured. It is expected that the results of this study will be used as basic data for preparing the data and supplementary measures when the quarantine authorities establish discriminatory quarantine areas and prevention strategies, such as preventive measures for the target areas and farms, or control of vehicles, by identifying the areas where livestock diseases are likely to occur in the region.

주제어

표/그림 (15)

표 TABLE 1. Current status of HPAI in Korea
그림 FIGURE 1. Study area
표 TABLE 2. Result of logistic regression analysis
그림 FIGURE 4. HPAI infection probability according to the number of poultry farms with a radius of 3㎞ and distance from migratory birds
그림 FIGURE 5. Distribution of infected farms in section ⓐ
그림 FIGURE 6. Distribution of infected farms in section ⓑ
그림 FIGURE 7. HPAI infection probability according to distance from major roads and distance from migratory birds
표 TABLE 3. Number of infected farms in section ⓐ
표 TABLE 4. Number of infected farms in section ⓑ
그림 FIGURE 9. Distribution of infected farms in section ⓓ
표 TABLE 6. Number of infected farms in section ⓓ
그림 FIGURE 10. Distribution of infected farms in location conditions derived from predictive probability
표 TABLE 7. Number of infected farms in location conditions derived from predictive probability

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표제어: PCR

동의어: Packet Collision Rate

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용어 설명: PCR은 세균 특이성이 있는 primer를 이용하여 적은 수의 세균이 있을지라도 쉽게 검출할 수 있는 유용한 방법이며, 이를 이용하여 구강 내 치면세균막이나 타액에서 직접 세균을 검출할 수 있게 되었다[8].

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