[논문]Business Cycle and Occupational Accidents in Korea

Kim, Dong Koo; Park, Sunyoung

doi:10.1016/j.shaw.2020.05.002

Business Cycle and Occupational Accidents in Korea 원문보기

Safety and health at work : SH@W, v.11 no.3, 2020년, pp.314 - 321

Kim, Dong Koo (Korea Energy Economics Institute) , Park, Sunyoung (Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Background: Occupational accidents occur for a variety of reasons, such as unsafe behaviors of workers and insufficient safety equipment at the workplace, but there are also various economic and social factors that can impact working conditions and working environment. This study analyzed the relationship between changes in economic factors and the occurrence of occupational accidents in Korea. Methods: Multilinear regression analysis was used as the analysis model. The general to specific method was also used, which consecutively removes statistically insignificant variables from a general model that includes dependent variables and lagged variables of dependent variables. Results: The frequency of occupational accidents was found to have a statistically significant relationship to economic indicators. The monthly number of cases of occupational injury and disease and fatal occupational injuries were found to be closely related to manufacturing capacity utilization, differences in the production index in the services sector, and commencements of building construction. The increase in equipment investment indicators was found to reduce fatal occupational injuries. Conclusion: The results of this study may be used to develop occupational accident trends or leading indicators, which in turn can be used by organizations that manage and monitor occupational accidents toward taking administrative action designed to reduce occupational accidents. The results also imply that short-term and mid- to long-term economic and social changes that can impact workers, workplaces and working conditions, and workplace organizations must be taken into account if more effective government policies are to be established and implemented toward further prevention of occupational accidents.

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문제 정의

This study collected the number of cases of occupational injury and disease based on the occurrence date rather than the typical claim approval date. Therefore, this study can more accurately analyze the impact of economic fluctuations than other similar studies. Table 2 shows the descriptive statistics of collected data.
The plan is focusing its efforts overall to use policy to prevent occupational accidents [19]. This analysis was conducted to identify implications from occupational injuries and fatalities in accordance with this policy direction.
52, confirming a considerable positive correlation. This study aims to use an econometrical technique to examine objectively and quantitatively how major economic indicators that represent economic fluctuations are connected to occupational accidents. The economic indicators identified to be closely related to the occurrence of industrial accidents will serve as good indicators for effective implementation of occupational accident prevention.
This study is the first attempt to analyze the relationship between monthly indicators on economic fluctuations and occupational accidents using Korean data in an econometric model. It confirms that economic fluctuations, such as changes in manufacturing capacity utilization and demand for services, are factors that can increase or decrease the incidence of occupational accidents by affecting working pace, number of workers and size of workplace, and the level of skills in the workforce, among others.

제안 방법

The gathered data were examined to determine the model to be used for analysis. First of all, a close review was conducted on the stationarity of key dependent variables, which are the number of occupational injuries and diseases, occupational injuries, and fatal occupational injuries. If a variable (y_t)is a stationary time series, it will satisfy the following conditions (Min and Choi [18]).
The goal of this study is to use an econometric technique to carry out time series analysis to identify the impact of economic fluctuation factors, such as capacity utilization rate in the manufacturing sector and commencement of building construction, on occupational accidents, including the number of occupational injuries and number of fatal occupational injuries. The following data and analysis methods were applied for this purpose.
The original data of the two indicators have apparent long-term trends with moderately declining number of occupational injuries and significantly rising index of industrial production. Therefore, to focus on the cyclical components of the indicators, this study removed their trends using the Hodricke Prescott filter (Hodrick et al [14]). The correlation coefficient between the two detrended indicators is 0.
This implies, for instance, if an occupational accident occurred in January 2018 but the occupational injury claim was approved in April 2018, the relevant occupational injury is included in the occupational accident statistics in April 2018. This study collected the number of cases of occupational injury and disease based on the occurrence date rather than the typical claim approval date. Therefore, this study can more accurately analyze the impact of economic fluctuations than other similar studies.
This study used dummy variables to analyze the impact of the period of great change in Korea's government policies to prevent occupational accidents during the period of analysis.
To acquire enough usable independent variables, the critical value, which determines the existence of unit root, was set at 10%. Variables evaluated as stationary time series were used as is, whereas nonstationary variables were made stationary time series using differencing and a variety of other methods, before the regression analysis. To determine the analysis model, the general to specific method was applied.

대상 데이터

Shin and Oh [13] analyzed factors that influenced the differences in occupational accident rates between countries. The study used the occupational accident rate between 1990 and 2007 for 30 countries worldwide, as provided by the International Labour Organization and economic indicator data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and other institutions [13]. The analysis found that a country's occupational accident rate declined as gross national product (GNP) per capita increased, while countries with a larger proportion of their gross domestic product made up by manufacturing and construction had a higher occupational accident rate.

데이터처리

Therefore, a disadvantage exists in that if the number of independent variables increases, the R-squared also increases, regardless of whether there is a meaningful relationship with independent variables. To complement this weakness, this study used the adjusted R-squared, which can identify the number of independent variables that are able to minimize the residual sum of squares by minimizing changes not explained by the regression analysis. This makes it more suitable when changing from a general to a specific model analysis.

성능/효과

According to our analysis of fatal occupational injuries, although the statistical significance was somewhat weak, as the manufacturing capacity utilization rate and differences in the services production index increase, this resulted in an increase in fatal occupational injuries, with a time lag of three months and five months, respectively. Commencement of building construction was statistically significant similar to the analyses in Model 1 and 2.
Lastly, this section presents the results of analysis on the impact of economic fluctuation indicators on fatal occupational injuries which are most closely related to the current Korean government's policy goals designed to prevent occupational accidents. According to the results, indicators with a statistically significant impact (10% significance level) are commencements of building construction, equipment investment index, difference in the number of workers, and employment rate. In addition, the rate of manufacturing capacity utilization and differences in the services production index were also included in our analysis but were found to have weaker statistical significance (Table 6).
The Table 4 shows the results of regression analysis of the overall number of occupational injury and disease victims and economic fluctuation factors. First, the number of occupational injury and disease victims was found to have a positive regression coefficient with capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, commencement of building construction, employment rate, and the male ratio of employed persons. More specifically, an increase of 1% in capacity utilization in a manufacturing workplace resulted in an increase of around 45 occupational injury or disease victims, while for every additional 100 buildings for which construction commenced, there was an increase of around 11 occupational injury or disease victims.
The analysis found that a country's occupational accident rate declined as gross national product (GNP) per capita increased, while countries with a larger proportion of their gross domestic product made up by manufacturing and construction had a higher occupational accident rate.
The analysis shows that the rate of manufacturing capacity utilization, differences in production index in services, and building construction commencements, among other economic fluctuation indicators, were statistically significant in terms of their relation to monthly occupational accidents.
[11] used major social, economic, and labor indicators in estimating occupational accident rates. The study found that the economic participation rate of workers in the 45e49 age group was a key variable to estimate the rate of occupational accidents for every 10,000 workers. The authors also showed that the funds budgeted for support of small workplaces had to be considered as a priority to estimate the occupational injury rate for every 100,000 workers [11].
Chang and Tsai [8] examined the relation between changes in unemployment rate and occupational accidents in Taiwan's manufacturing industry. The study found that the rapid recovery of the economy in 2005, after the recessionary period of 2001 to 2004, led to a dramatic decline in unemployment. This finding signified that a large number of new and unskilled workers entered the labor market, which was why there was a corresponding increase in the number of occupational accidents.

후속연구

This study is signi ficant in that it is the first of its kind to identify the statistical signi ficance between occupational accidents and economic fluctuations in Korea. The results of this study may be used to develop occupational accident trends or leading indicators, which in turn can be used by organizations that manage and monitor occupational accidents toward taking administrative action designed to reduce occupational accidents. The results also imply that short-term and mid- to long-term economic and social changes that can impact workers, workplaces and working conditions, and workplace organizations must be taken into account if more effective government policies are to be established and implemented toward further prevention of occupational accidents.

참고문헌 (21)

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15 Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute Internal data 2018
16 Bank of Korea Economic statistics system 2020 http://ecos.bok.or.kr/
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20 Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute Industrial accidents statistics news release 2018
21 Ministry of Employment and Labor Industrial accidents occurrence status in 2017 2018

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