[논문]기준증발산량 산정방법들의 시공간적 보정에 대한 개선효과 평가

김철겸; 이정우; 이정은; 김현준

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2020.53.9.701

기준증발산량 산정방법들의 시공간적 보정에 대한 개선효과 평가
Evaluation of improvement effect on the spatial-temporal correction of several reference evapotranspiration methods 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.53 no.9, 2020년, pp.701 - 715

김철겸 (한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부) , 이정우 (한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부) , 이정은 (한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부) , 김현준 (한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부)

초록
AI-Helper

본 연구에서는 FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO PM)를 비롯하여 Hamon, Hansen, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, Thornthwaite 등 총 8가지 기준증발산량 산정방법을 이용하여 전국 기상청 ASOS 지점을 대상으로 각 방법에 따른 기준증발산량을 산정하여 비교하였다. 또한 가장 신뢰성이 높은 것으로 알려진 FAO PM값을 기준으로 나머지 7가지 방법에 의한 월별 편차를 분석하여 지점별 월별 보정계수를 도출하고, 보정에 따른 개선효과를 평가하였다. 먼저 각 방법의 기본계수를 적용하여 기준증발산량을 산정한 결과, 방법에 따라 큰 편차를 나타내었으며 Hansen 방법이 상대적으로 FAO PM과 유사한 것으로 나타났다. 반면, Hamon과 Jensen-Haise 방법은 여름철을 중심으로 타 방법대비 매우 큰 값을 보였으며, FAO PM과의 편차도 크게 나타났다. 지역별로는 동해안 일부지역을 제외하고 대부분의 지역에서 FAO PM과 비교하여 기준증발산량을 과다하게 산정하는 것으로 분석되었다. FAO PM 결과와의 편차를 기반으로 지점별 월별 최적화된 보정계수를 도출하고 기준증발산량을 다시 비교한 결과, 지점에 따라 보정 전에 -46 mm~+88 mm의 범위를 보였던 월 평균값은 보정 후 -11 mm~+1 mm로 나타났으며, 연 평균값도 -393 mm~+354 mm (보정 전)에서 -33 mm~+9 mm (보정 후)로 보정을 통하여 편차가 크게 감소되었다. 또한, 기온자료만을 이용하는 Hamon, Hargreave-Samani, Thornthwaite 방법들도 보정을 통하여 FAO PM과 큰 차이없는 결과를 도출하였다. 특히 기온기반의 방법들은 기후변화 시나리오 중 상대적으로 불확실성이 낮은 기온자료만을 이용하여 미래의 장기간의 기준증발산량을 전망하거나, 월 또는 계절예측 기온정보를 이용하여 수개월간의 기준증발산량을 예측하는 경우에 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This study compared several reference evapotranspiration estimated using eight methods such as FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO PM), Hamon, Hansen, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, and Thornthwaite. In addition, by analyzing the monthly deviations of the results by the FAO PM and the remaining seven methods, monthly optimized correction coefficients were derived and the improvement effect was evaluated. These methods were applied to 73 automated synoptic observation system (ASOS) stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration, where the climatological data are available at least 20 years. As a result of evaluating the reference evapotranspiration by applying the default coefficients of each method, a large fluctuation happened depending on the method, and the Hansen method was relatively similar to FAO PM. However, the Hamon and Jensen-Haise methods showed more large values than other methods in summer, and the deviation from FAO PM method was also large significantly. When comparing based on the region, the comparison with FAO PM method provided that the reference evapotranspiration estimated by other methods was overestimated in most regions except for eastern coastal areas. Based on the deviation from the FAO PM method, the monthly correction coefficients were derived for each station. The monthly deviation average that ranged from -46 mm to +88 mm before correction was improved to -11 mm to +1 mm after correction, and the annual average deviation was also significantly reduced by correction from -393 mm to +354 mm (before correction) to -33 mm to +9 mm (after correction). In particular, Hamon, Hargreaves-Samani, and Thornthwaite methods using only temperature data also produced results that were not significantly different from FAO PM after correction. It can be also useful for forecasting long-term reference evapotranspiration using temperature data in climate change scenarios or predicting evapotranspiration using monthly or seasonal temperature forecasted values.

주제어

표/그림 (13)

그림 Fig. 1. Location of ASOS stations used in this study
표 Table 1. Geographical locations and elevations of the ASOS stations used in this study
표 Table 2. Methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration used in this study
그림 Fig. 2. Average monthly reference evapotranspiration before correction
그림 Fig. 3. Difference value between FAO PM method and others for monthly reference evapotranspiration before correction
그림 Fig. 4. Difference value between FAO PM method and others for annual reference evapotranspiration before correction
그림 Fig. 5. Range of monthly correction coefficients of each method derived for Seoul (108) station
그림 Fig. 6. Goodness of fit test results for monthly reference evapotrans-piration before and after correction at Seoul (108) station
표 Table 3. Monthly correction coefficient according to the methods at 10 stations
표 Table 3. Monthly correction coefficient according to the methods at 10 stations (Continue)
그림 Fig. 7. Average monthly reference evapotranspiration after correction
그림 Fig. 8. Difference value between FAO PM method and others for monthly reference evapotranspiration after correction
그림 Fig. 9. Difference value between FAO PM method and others for annual reference evapotranspiration after correction

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