[논문]고해상도 강수정보 생산을 위한 레이더 반사도-강수량 관계식 매개변수 보정 및 불확실성 평가

김태정; 김장경; 김진국; 권현한

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2021.54.5.321

고해상도 강수정보 생산을 위한 레이더 반사도-강수량 관계식 매개변수 보정 및 불확실성 평가
Estimation of reflectivity-rainfall relationship parameters and uncertainty assessment for high resolution rainfall information 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.54 no.5, 2021년, pp.321 - 334

김태정 (한국수자원조사기술원 전략기획실) , 김장경 (베이지안웍스) , 김진국 (한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본구) , 권현한 (세종대학교 공과대학 건설환경공학과)

초록
AI-Helper

일반적으로 레이더 강수량 추정에 활용되는 Marshall-Palmer 관계식은 강수현상의 계절적 변동성을 고려하지 않고 선별된 강수사상에 대하여 시공간적으로 고정된 매개변수를 적용하여 레이더 강수량을 추정하므로 실제 강수량과 추정된 레이더 강수량은 정량적인 오차가 발생할 수 있다. 이러한 제약성을 극복하고자 본 연구는 장기간 레이더 반사도 인자를 가용하여 레이더 반사도-강수량 관계식 매개변수를 Bayesian 추론기법으로 보정하고 불확실성을 정량화하여 레이더 강수량의 편의 보정을 수행하였다. Bayesian 추론기법 기반으로 추정된 레이더 반사도-강수량 관계식의 보정 매개변수는 계절성이 규명되었으며 지역적 특성이 존재하였다. Bayesian 추론기법을 통하여 산정된 레이더 강수량은 Marshall-Palmer 관계식의 과소추정 문제를 극복하고 지상 강수특성을 정량적으로 현실성 있게 재현하였다. 본 연구결과는 집중호우 발생 시 능동적인 유역단위 수자원 해석 시스템을 구축하여 국가적 레이더 자원의 가치를 향상할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

A fixed reflectivity-rainfall relationship approach, such as the Marshall-Palmer relationship, for an entire year and different seasons, can be problematic in cases where the relationship varies spatially and temporally throughout a region. From this perspective, this study explores the use of long-term radar reflectivity for South Korea to obtain a nationwide calibrated Z-R relationship and the associated uncertainties within a Bayesian inference framework. A calibrated spatially structured pattern in the parameters exists, particularly for the wet season and parameter for the dry season. A pronounced region of high values during the wet and dry seasons may be partially associated with storm movements in that season. Overall, the radar rainfall fields based on the proposed modeling procedure are similar to the observed rainfall fields. In contrast, the radar rainfall fields obtained from the existing Marshall-Palmer relationship show a systematic underestimation. In the event of high impact weather, it is expected that the value of national radar resources can be improved by establishing an active watershed-level hydrological analysis system.

주제어

표/그림 (10)

표 Table 1. The commonly used Z-R relationships
표 Table 2. Weather radar specifications operated by the Korea meteorological administration
그림 Fig. 1. The locations of national radar site and the weather stations operated by KMA
그림 Fig. 2. Boxplots of the posterior distribution of the Z-R parameters using Bayesian inference
그림 Fig. 3. Comparison of IoA between existing and calibrated Z-R relationships over all of the weather stations
그림 Fig. 4. Comparison of MAE between existing and calibrated Z-R relationships over all of the weather stations
그림 Fig. 5. Comparison of RMSE between existing and calibrated Z-R relationships over all of the weather stations
그림 Fig. 6. Comparison of Bias between existing and calibrated Z-R relationships over all of the weather stations
그림 Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of calibrated Z-R relationship parameter α
그림 Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of calibrated Z-R relationship parameter β

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저자의 다른 논문 :

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용어 설명 출처 목록 (6)

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