[논문]인공위성 원격 감지 자료를 활용한 산림지역의 생태학적 가뭄 가능성에 대한 확률론적 평가

원정은; 서지유; 강신욱; 김상단

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2021.54.9.705

인공위성 원격 감지 자료를 활용한 산림지역의 생태학적 가뭄 가능성에 대한 확률론적 평가
Probabilistic evaluation of ecological drought in forest areas using satellite remote sensing data 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.54 no.9, 2021년, pp.705 - 718

원정은 (부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부(환경공학전공)) , 서지유 (부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부(환경공학전공)) , 강신욱 (K-water 국가가뭄정보분석센터) , 김상단 (부경대학교 환경공학과)

초록
AI-Helper

본 연구에서는 위성 원격 감지 자료를 사용하여 생태학적 가뭄의 가능성을 조사하였다. 먼저 MODIS에서 제공하는 정규식생지수와 지표면온도로 부터 식생건강성지수를 추정하였다. 그런 다음 우리나라 전 지역에 분포하고 있는 기상청 ASOS 주요 60개 지점 주변의 산림지역에서 다양한 강수/증발산 시나리오에 따른 식생 관련 가뭄의 가능성을 추정하기 위한 결합 확률모델을 구성하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 대기의 수분공급이 열악하거나 대기의 수분 요구량이 과도한 조건에서 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄의 위험 패턴을 보여준다. 또한 다양한 기상학적 가뭄 조건에서 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄 위험의 민감도를 나타낸다. 이러한 연구 결과는 의사 결정권자가 가뭄 위험을 평가하고 온난화 시대에 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄 완화 전략을 개발할 수 있는 통찰력을 제공할 것으로 기대된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Climate change has a significant impact on vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the possibility of ecological drought was investigated using satellite remote sensing data. First, the Vegetation Health Index was estimated from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Temperature provided by MODIS. Then, a joint probability model was constructed to estimate the possibility of vegetation-related drought in various precipitation/evaporation scenarios in forest areas around 60 major ASOS sites of the Meteorological Administration located throughout Korea. The results of this study show the risk pattern of drought related to forest vegetation under conditions of low atmospheric moisture supply or high atmospheric moisture demand. It also identifies the sensitivity of drought risks associated with forest vegetation under various meterological drought conditions. These findings provide insights for decision makers to assess drought risk and develop drought mitigation strategies related to forest vegetation in a warming era.

주제어

표/그림 (12)

그림 Fig. 1. Location of meteorological sites
그림 Fig. 2. Cross-correlation between SPI (or nEDDI) and VHI
그림 Fig. 3. Selected time-scale for SPI and nEDDI
그림 Fig. 4. Cross-correlation and optimal time-scale for all seasons
그림 Fig. 5. AIC values of five copulas for VHI and SPI (Far left) (C, F, G, N, and S indicates Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, Normal, and Student-t copula, respectively), AIC values of five copulas for VHI and nEDDI (Center to left), Q-Q plot using best-fitted copula (Center to right), and conditional CDF of VHI under two meteorological drought scenarios: SPI < -1 and nEDDI < -1 (Far right)
표 Table 1. Optimal time-scale for SPI and nEDDI at Daegu site
표 Table 2. Goodness-of-fit statistics (Chi-square p-value) of different theoretical distribution for VHI in different seasons
그림 Fig. 6. Drought probability of vegetation for the particular VHI threshold (u_VHI = 0.3) under precipitation scenarios
그림 Fig. 7. Drought probability of vegetation for the particular VHI threshold (u_VHI = 0.3) under precipitation scenarios for all seasons
그림 Fig. 8. Drought probability of vegetation for the particular VHI threshold (u_VHI = 0.3) under evaporation scenarios
그림 Fig. 9. Drought probability of vegetation for the particular VHI threshold (u_VHI = 0.3) under evaporation scenarios for all seasons
그림 Fig. 10. Seasonal sensitivity of vegetation drought probability

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저자의 다른 논문 :

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용어 설명: PCR은 세균 특이성이 있는 primer를 이용하여 적은 수의 세균이 있을지라도 쉽게 검출할 수 있는 유용한 방법이며, 이를 이용하여 구강 내 치면세균막이나 타액에서 직접 세균을 검출할 수 있게 되었다[8].

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