[논문]로지스틱 회귀, 랜덤포레스트, LSTM 기법을 활용한 서리예측모형 평가

전종안; 이현주; 임슬희; 김대하; 백상수

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2021.54.9.667

로지스틱 회귀, 랜덤포레스트, LSTM 기법을 활용한 서리예측모형 평가
Comparative assessment of frost event prediction models using logistic regression, random forest, and LSTM networks 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.54 no.9, 2021년, pp.667 - 680

전종안 (APEC 기후센터 기후사업본부 예측기술과) , 이현주 (APEC 기후센터 기후사업본부 기후분석과) , 임슬희 (APEC 기후센터 기후사업본부 기후분석과) , 김대하 (전북대학교, 토목공학과) , 백상수 (울산과학기술원, 도시환경공학부)

초록
AI-Helper

이 연구의 목적은 서리 발생일과 무상일 기간의 특성을 분석하고 로지스틱 회귀, 랜덤 포레스트, Long-short Term Memory (LSTM) 기법을 활용하여 서리발생 예측모델을 개발하고 평가하는데 있다. 수원, 청주, 광주 지점에서 봄철과 가을철 서리발생 예측모델 개발을 위한 기상변수들을 수집하였으며, 수집기간은 1973년부터 2019년까지이다. 프리시전(precision), 리콜(Recall), f-1 스코어와, AUC 및 Reliability Diagram과 같은 그래피컬 평가기법을 이용해 서리발생 예측모델을 평가하였다. 봄철과 가을철 모두 서리발생일이 줄어드는 경향성(유의수준: 0.01)을 보였다. 0.9 이상의 높은 AUC 값에도 불구하고, 신뢰도는 일정한 값을 보여주지는 않았다. 서리발생일 측뿐만 아니라, 초상일과 종상일을 정확히 예측할 수 있도록 모형 개선이 필요해 보이며, 다른 지역의 더 많은 지점에서 동일한 기법을 적용해 보는 연구가 필요해 보인다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

We investigated changes in frost days and frost-free periods and to comparatively assess frost event prediction models developed using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The meteorological variables for the model development were collected from the Suwon, Cheongju, and Gwangju stations for the period of 1973-2019 for spring (March - May) and fall (September - November). The developed models were then evaluated by Precision, Recall, and f-1 score and graphical evaluation methods such as AUC and reliability diagram. The results showed that significant decreases (significance level of 0.01) in the frequencies of frost days were at the three stations in both spring and fall. Overall, the evaluation metrics showed that the performance of RF was highest, while that of LSTM was lowest. Despite higher AUC values (above 0.9) were found at the three stations, reliability diagrams showed inconsistent reliability. A further study is suggested on the improvement of the predictability of both frost events and the first and last frost days by the frost event prediction models and reliability of the models. It would be beneficial to replicate this study at more stations in other regions.

주제어

표/그림 (12)

그림 Fig. 1. Location map of frost monitoring stations: 119 for Suwon, 131 for Cheongju, and 156 for Gwangju
표 Table 1. Statistical summary of meteorological variables at frost days at the frost monitoring stations in spring and fall for the period of 1973-2019
표 Table 2. Two-dimensional (2×2) confusion matrix
그림 Fig. 2. Frequency of frost occurrence at the frost monitoring stations in a) spring and (c) fall for the period of 1973-2019 and (b, d) mean with standard deviation. The lines indicate the linear trends. The * and ** indicate statistical significance at the 0.05 and 0.01 probability levels, respectively
그림 Fig. 3. Time series and linear trend (left), and mean with standard deviation (right) for (a, b) last frost day, (c, d) first frost day, and (e, f) frost-free period. The * and ** indicate statistical significance at the 0.05 and 0.01 probability levels, respectively
그림 Fig. 4. Comparisons of the observed and simulated numbers of frost occurrences at (a, d) Suwon (119), (b, e) Cheongju (131), and (c, f) Gwangju (156) in spring (a-c) and in fall (d-f). The left-hand side of the vertical blue dashed line indicates the training period and the right-hand side of it indicates the test period
그림 Fig. 5. Precision, recall, and f-1 scores for the frost occurrences (a, b) for the training and (c, d) for test sets in spring (a, c) and in fall (b, d). TRA represents the training period and TST represents the test period
그림 Fig. 6. ROC curves for the training period at (a, d) Suwon (119), (b, e) Cheongju (131), and (c, f) Gwangju (156) in spring (a-c) and in fall (d-f)
그림 Fig. 7. ROC curves for the test period at (a, d) Suwon (119), (b, e) Cheongju (131), and (c, f) Gwangju (156) in spring (a-c) and in fall (d-f)
그림 Fig. 8. Reliability diagrams for the training period at (a, d) Suwon (119), (b, e) Cheongju (131), and (c, f) Gwangju (156) in spring (a-c) and in fall (d-f)
그림 Fig. 9. Reliability diagrams for the test period at (a, d) Suwon (119), (b, e) Cheongju (131), and (c, f) Gwangju (156) in spring (a-c) and in fall (d-f)
표 Table 3. Statistical summary of the observed and simulated first frost days, last frost days, and frost-free period at the frost monitoring stations for the period of 1973-2019

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