[논문]한국형수치예보모델 KIM의 폭염 예측 성능 검증

정지영; 이은희; 박혜진

doi:10.14191/atmos.2022.32.4.277

한국형수치예보모델 KIM의 폭염 예측 성능 검증
Evaluation of Heat Waves Predictability of Korean Integrated Model 원문보기

대기 = Atmosphere, v.32 no.4, 2022년, pp.277 - 295

정지영 ((재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단) , 이은희 ((재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단) , 박혜진 ((재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The global weather prediction model, Korean Integrated Model (KIM), has been in operation since April 2020 by the Korea Meteorological Administration. This study assessed the performance of heat waves (HWs) in Korea in 2020. Case experiments during 2018-2020 were conducted to support the reliability of assessment, and the factors which affect predictability of the HWs were analyzed. Simulated expansion and retreat of the Tibetan High and North Pacific High during the 2020 HW had a good agreement with the analysis. However, the model showed significant cold biases in the maximum surface temperature. It was found that the temperature bias was highly related to underestimation of downward shortwave radiation at surface, which was linked to cloudiness. KIM tended to overestimate nighttime clouds that delayed the dissipation of cloud in the morning, which affected the shortage of downward solar radiation. The vertical profiles of temperature and moisture showed that cold bias and trapped moisture in the lower atmosphere produce favorable conditions for cloud formation over the Yellow Sea, which affected overestimation of cloud in downwind land. Sensitivity test was performed to reduce model bias, which was done by modulating moisture mixing parameter in the boundary layer scheme. Results indicated that the daytime temperature errors were reduced by increase in surface solar irradiance with enhanced cloud dissipation. This study suggested that not only the synoptic features but also the accuracy of low-level temperature and moisture condition played an important role in predicting the maximum temperature during the HWs in medium-range forecasts.

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표/그림 (11)

그림 Fig. 1. (Left panel) Time series of 200 hPa (shading) and 500 hPa (orange line) geopotential height analysis averaged over the South Korean region (34-38.5°N, 126-129.5°E) during July-August in (a) 2018, (c) 2019, and (e) 2020. (Right panel) Horizontal distributions of 200 hPa (shading) and 500 hPa (black contour) geopotential height (m) with 850 hPa wind vectors (m s^-1) over East Asia averaged during three heat wave days each year. The white (blue) line indicates zero gradient of 200 hPa (500 hPa) meridional gradient. Analysis is obtained from IFS.
표 Table 1. Selected heat waves date and experiment setup.
그림 Fig. 2. Hovemöller plots of 200 hPa (top) and 500 hPa (bottom) geopotential height (m) in IFS analysis, and KIM-OP +3, 5, 10 days predictions averaged over the South Korea domain (34-38.5°N).
그림 Fig. 3. Time series of maximum temperature (℃) at the surface level in 3, 5, 10-day predictions by KIM-OP and IFS analysis averaged over the South Korea in August 2020. Gray shading represents the heat wave period according to ASOS observation. Here, surface temperature at 0600 UTC (1500 KST) are regarded as the maximum temperature.
그림 Fig. 4. Forecast bias (left) and RMSE (right) in 200 hPa and 500 hPa geopotential height, and surface maximum temperature with forecast lead times averaged for heat wave days (HW), Non-heat wave days (Non-HW), and in August 2020 (All). Number of heat wave and Non-heat wave days are 4 and 27 days.
그림 Fig. 5. The horizontal distributions of maximum surface temperature biases (℃, shading) against IFS analysis for HW18 (top), HW19 (middle), and HW20 (bottom). The contour lines represent the value of IFS analysis.
그림 Fig. 6. The horizontal distributions of KIM biases in downward surface shortwave radiation flux (left, W m^-2) and total cloud cover (right, %) against CERES observations. The contour lines represent the observations.
그림 Fig. 7. Height-longitude cross sections of meridional mean (averaged over 34-38.5°N) cloud liquid water content (shading, g kg^-1) and u wind (vector) of (a) ERA5 analysis and (b) KIM-cold simulation from 1200 UTC 18 August to 0600 UTC 19 August 2020 in 6 hourly intervals.
$Fig. 8. The vertical profiles of (a) specific humidity (g kg<sup>-1</sup>), (b) dew point temperature (dashed, ℃) and air temperature (solid, ℃) of the KIM (red) and ERA5 analysis (black) and (c) the physics tendencies of temperature (black and blue, K day<sup>-1</sup>) and cloud fraction (gray, %) at the point in the Yellow sea (37°N, 125°E) from 1200 UTC 18 August to 0600 UTC 19 August 2020 in 6 hourly intervals.$ 그림 Fig. 8. The vertical profiles of (a) specific humidity (g kg^-1), (b) dew point temperature (dashed, ℃) and air temperature (solid, ℃) of the KIM (red) and ERA5 analysis (black) and (c) the physics tendencies of temperature (black and blue, K day^-1) and cloud fraction (gray, %) at the point in the Yellow sea (37°N, 125°E) from 1200 UTC 18 August to 0600 UTC 19 August 2020 in 6 hourly intervals.
그림 Fig. 9. The same as Fig. 8 except for the point in the Korean Peninsula (37°N, 127°E).
그림 Fig. 10. (a) Height-longitude cross sections of cloud liquid water content (g kg^-1) differences (averaged over 34-38.5°N), and horizontal distributions of (b) net radiation flux (W m^-2) and (c) 2 m temperature (℃) differences between EXP and CTL for the period between 1800 UTC 18 August and 0600 UTC 19 August 2020.

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