[논문]기후변화에 따른 강수 특성 변화 분석을 위한 대규모 기후 앙상블 모의자료 적용

김영규; 손민우

doi:10.14191/atmos.2022.32.1.001

기후변화에 따른 강수 특성 변화 분석을 위한 대규모 기후 앙상블 모의자료 적용
Application of the Large-scale Climate Ensemble Simulations to Analysis on Changes of Precipitation Trend Caused by Global Climate Change 원문보기

대기 = Atmosphere, v.32 no.1, 2022년, pp.1 - 15

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

주제어

표/그림 (12)

그림 Fig. 1. Target regions in this study.
표 Table 1. Target regions in this study.
표 Table 2. Six CMIP5 models used for obtaining the precipitation data under future climate conditions.
그림 Fig. 2. Histograms of annual maximum 1-day rainfall of each year in present climate conditions at four regions located in the Yongdam dam basin, for 1, 15, and 50 ensemble members as aligned from the left to right.
그림 Fig. 3. Cumulative density function (CDF) graphs for Non-exceedance probabilities of four regions located in the Yongdamdam basin. The line represents the 60 annual maximum 1-day rainfall for each ensemble of d4PDF. The square represents the observed annual maximum 1-day rainfall. The circle represents the 3000 annual maximum 1-day rainfall for all ensembles of d4PDF.
그림 Fig. 4. The result of annual mean precipitation under historical and future climate conditions at four regions.
그림 Fig. 5. The result of seasonal mean precipitation under historical and future climate conditions at four regions.
표 Table 3. The difference of seasonal mean precipitation between historical and future climate conditions.
그림 Fig. 6. The result of counting days that occurred the precipitation more than 10 mm under historical and future climate conditions at four regions.
그림 Fig. 7. Histograms of annual maximum 1-day rainfall for each year of all ensembles in the present and future climate simulations at four regions located in Yongdam-dam basin. Lines represent histograms under the present climate condition, and dashed lines represent histograms under the future climate condition.
그림 Fig. 8. Comparison of high-scale rainfall values representing a long return period in the present and future climate conditions using the CDF plot.
표 Table 4. Statistical values for annual maximum daily rainfalls of all ensembles in present and future climatic conditions.

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저자의 다른 논문 :

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용어 설명 출처 목록 (6)

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