[논문]용담댐 기존운영에 대한 의사결정중심 기후변화 영향 평가

김대하; 김은희; 이승철; 김은지; 신준

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2022.55.3.205

[국내논문] 용담댐 기존운영에 대한 의사결정중심 기후변화 영향 평가
A decision-centric impact assessment of operational performance of the Yongdam Dam, South Korea 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.55 no.3, 2022년, pp.205 - 215

김대하 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) , 김은희 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) , 이승철 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) , 김은지 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) , 신준 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부)

초록
AI-Helper

대기온실가스 증가로 인해 전지구 평균기온은 이미 1.0℃ 이상 상승했고 폭염, 가뭄, 홍수 등 극한 기상현상의 빈도는 점점 더 높아질 것으로 전망되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 전북·충청지역의 이·치수안전도 확보에 큰 역할을 하고 있는 용담댐의 기존 운영방식이 기후변화에 얼마나 취약한 지 의사결정 지표를 중심으로 평가하였다. 현실적인 기후 스트레스 테스트를 위해 GR6J 강우-유출 모형, Random Forests 댐운영 모형을 관측자료에 적합시켰고 추계학적 기법으로 생성된 294개의 기후스트레스 시계열을 모형에 입력해 연최대일방류량, 저수량신뢰도, 공급신뢰도의 변화를 분석하였다. 그 결과 2021~2040년 기간 용담댐 저수량신뢰도는 과도한 수준으로 증가할 것으로 전망되었고 이에 반해 공급신뢰도의 증가는 저수량 신뢰도에 미치지 못할 것으로 나타났다. 평균강수량과 강수변동성의 증가로 20년 빈도 연최대방류량은 50%의 확률로 43% 증가할 것으로 나타났다. 용담댐의 기존운영방식은 저수량 확보에 과도하게 치중되어 있는 것으로 판단되며 이 운영이 지속될 경우 용담댐 하류지역의 홍수위험은 더 가중될 것으로 예상된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Amidst the global climate crisis, dam operation policies formulated under the stationary climate assumption could lead to unsatisfactory water management. In this work, we assessed status-quo performance of the Yongdam Dam in Korea under various climatic stresses in flood risk reduction and water supply reliability for 2021-2040. To this end, we employed a decision-centric framework equipped with a stochastic weather generator, a conceptual streamflow model, and a machine-learning reservoir operation rule. By imposing 294 climate perturbations to dam release simulations, we found that the current operation rule of the Yongdam dam could redundantly secure water storage, while inefficiently enhancing the supply reliability. On the other hand, flood risks were likely to increase substantially due to rising mean and variability of daily precipitation. Here, we argue that the current operation rules of the Yongdam Dam seem to be overly focused on securing water storage, and thus need to be adjusted to efficiently improve supply reliability and reduce flood risks in downstream areas.

주제어

표/그림 (8)

그림 Fig. 1. The boundary and the elevation profile of the Yongdam Dam Basin. The storage in the dam is being transported to the adjacent river basins for municipal and industrial uses (15.6 m³ s^-1 is institutionally planned), and the environmental demand for the downstream is 7.2 m³ s^-1
표 Table 1. List of the GCMs adopted for the decision-centric impact assessment
그림 Fig. 2. The five steps for the bottom-up impact assessment (adapted from Kim et al. (2018))
그림 Fig. 3. The time series of (a) daily rainfall, (b) observed and simulated flows, (c) 30-day rolling means of observed and simulated flows, (d) non-exceedance probability of observed and simulated flows, and (e) the 1:1 scatter plot between observed and simulated flows for 2011-2020.
표 Table 2. Estimated parameters of GR6J runoff model. The parameter ranges are given in the parentheses
그림 Fig. 4. Comparison between simulated storage changes by the random forests and observations for (a) the training period (2005-2016) and (b) the validation period
그림 Fig. 5. Responses of the 20-year-return period peak release to changes in (a) mean and (b) coefficient of variation of daily precipitation, and (c) the CRF of 20-year-return period peak release, responses of the storage reliability to changes in (d) mean precipitation and (e) mean temperature, and (f) the CRF of storage reliability, and responses of supply reliability to (g) mean precipitation, (h) mean temperature, and (i) the CRF of water supply reliability. The CRFs in (c), (f), and (i) describes flood risk, water supply reliability, and water storage reliability in response to changes in precipitation patterns (mean and variability) and mean air temperature
그림 Fig. 6. Projections of (a) 20-year-return-period peak release, (b) storage reliability, and (c) supply reliability by the CRFs and the CMIP5 GCM projections for 2021-2040. The blue circles and the red × symbols are climate projections under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, and the black arrow indicate median changes of the 53 projections

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표제어: PCR

동의어: Packet Collision Rate

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