[논문]기상학적 가뭄이 하천 BOD 수질에 미치는 영향의 확률론적 모니터링

서지유; 이정훈; 이호선; 김상단

doi:10.15681/kswe.2023.39.1.9

[국내논문] 기상학적 가뭄이 하천 BOD 수질에 미치는 영향의 확률론적 모니터링
Probabilistic Monitoring of Effect of Meteorological Drought on Stream BOD Water Quality 원문보기

한국물환경학회지 = Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, v.39 no.1, 2023년, pp.9 - 19

서지유 (부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 환경공학전공) , 이정훈 (부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 환경공학전공) , 이호선 (한국수자원공사 국가가뭄정보분석센터) , 김상단 (부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 환경공학전공)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Drought is a natural disaster that can have serious social impacts. Drought's impact ranges from water supply for humans to ecosystems, but the impact of drought on river water quality requires careful investigation. In general, drought occurs meteorologically and is classified as agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and environmental drought. In this study, the BOD environmental drought is defined using the bivariate copula joint probability distribution model between the meteorological drought index and the river BOD, and based on this, the environmental drought condition index (EDCI-BOD) was proposed. The results of examining the proposed index using past precipitation and BOD observation data showed that EDCI-BOD expressed environmental drought well in terms of river BOD water quality. In addition, by classifying the calculated EDCI-BOD into four levels, namely, 'attention', 'caution', 'alert', and 'seriousness', a practical monitoring stage for environmental drought of BOD was constructed. We further estimated the sensitivity of the stream BOD to meteorological drought, and through this, we could identify the stream section in which the stream BOD responded relatively more sensitively to the occurrence of meteorological drought. The results of this study are expected to provide information necessary for river BOD management in the event of meteorological droughts.

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표/그림 (9)

그림 Fig. 1. Nakdong river sub-basins, water quality monitoring station, and meteorological station location (red circles indicate water quality monitoring stations, green triangles indicate meteorological stations, blue solid lines indicate major rivers in Nakdong river).
그림 Fig. 2. Monthly river BOD time series at BB-B.
그림 Fig. 3. Estimation of EDCI-BOD using the copula model.
그림 Fig. 4. Histogram of the propagation time from meteorological drought to environmental drought and the resulting cross-correlation coefficient.
그림 Fig. 5. Histogram of selected marginal distributions (GM, GV, LL, LN, NM, and WB indicate Gamma, GEV, Log-Logistic, Log-Normal, Normal, and Weibull, respectively) of BOD and copula functions (C, F, G, N, and S indicate Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, Gaussian (or Normal) and Student-t copula, respectively) for BOD and drought index.
그림 Fig. 6. AIC values of five copulas for water temperature anomaly and nEDDI (left) (C, F, G, N, and S indicate Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, Gaussian (or Normal), and Student-t copula, respectively), Q-Q plot using best-fitted copula (center), and conditional CDF of BOD under a meteorological drought scenario: SPI ≦ 0 and SPI ≦ -1 (right).
그림 Fig. 7. BOD, SPI and EDCI-BOD time series of BB-B.
그림 Fig. 8. EDCI-BOD map of Nakdong River basin.
그림 Fig. 9. BOD drought sensitivity map in the Nakdong River basin.

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