[논문]지정학적 위기가 항만 물동량에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

남형식; 김치열

doi:10.5394/kinpr.2023.47.4.239

지정학적 위기가 항만 물동량에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구
A Study on Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Port Throughput in Korea 원문보기

한국항해항만학회지 = Journal of navigation and port research, v.47 no.4, 2023년, pp.239 - 245

남형식 (한국해양대학교 물류시스템공학과) , (한국해양대학교) , 김치열 (한국해양대학교 해운경영학부)

초록
AI-Helper

본 연구는 지정학적 위기가 우리나라 항만 물동량에 미치는 영향에 대해서 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 우리나라는 무역의존도가 높은 대외의존적인 경제구조를 가지고 있으며, 수출입의 대부분이 해상운송을 통해서 이루어지고 있다. 따라서, 지정학적 위기로 인하여 세계경제에 변동이 생기면 우리나라 항만 물동량에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 이론적 예상이 가능하다. 이에 본 연구는 1995년~2022년 기간 동안 지정학적 위기가 우리나라 항만 물동량에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 지정학적 위기가 우리나라 항만 물동량에 미치는 영향은 일부 항만을 제외하고 통계적으로 유의하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나, 지정학적 위기가 항만물동량에 미치는 영향은 수출과 수입에 따라, 그리고 항만에 따라 다른 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 지정학적 위기는 수출 물동량에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 항만을 통한 수출입 단가에 대해서 분석한 결과, 지정학적 위기는 수입단가에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This study examined the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput in Korea. With a high trade-to-GDP ratio, Korea has an open economy. The vast majority of its exports and imports are serviced by maritime transport. Therefore, cargo volume of Korean seaports is highly likely to be affected by changes in global economy resulting from escalation in geopolitical risk. In this regard, this study investigated the relationship between geopolitical risk and port throughput in Korea during the period of 1995-2022. Results indicated that the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput was not statistically significant. However, the relationship varied by export, import, and ports. Especially, it was revealed that cargo volume of Korean ports was negatively associated with the level of geopolitical risk. In addition, it was also found that geopolitical risk had a negative impact on the unit price of Korean import..

주제어

표/그림 (6)

그림 Fig. 1 GPR index(January 1995 – December 2022) Source : https://matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm
표 Table 1 Cargo volumes of korean seaports (Unit : thousand tons and million dollars)
표 Table 2 Correlation matrix for independent variables
표 Table 3 Results for port throughput(Weight)
표 Table 4 Results for exports/imports amount
표 Table 5 Results for exports/imports unit price

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