[논문]ECMWF 계절 기상 전망 기술의 정확성 및 국내 유역단위 적용성 평가

이용신; 강신욱

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2023.56.9.529

ECMWF 계절 기상 전망 기술의 정확성 및 국내 유역단위 적용성 평가
Assessment of ECMWF's seasonal weather forecasting skill and Its applicability across South Korean catchments 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.56 no.9, 2023년, pp.529 - 541

이용신 (브리스톨대학교 토목우주항공디자인공학과) , 강신욱 (K-water연구원 연구관리처)

초록
AI-Helper

기후변화에 따른 가뭄 등 극한 기상을 예측하기 위해, 최근 전 세계적으로 GCMs 모델에 기반하여 향후 7개월까지를 전망하는 계절 기상 전망(Seasonal Forecasts) 기술이 꾸준히 관심을 받고 있다. 그러나 국내에서의 연구 및 적용사례는 많지 않으며, 특히 유역단위에서 그 활용성에 대해서는 검증이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 국내 12개 다목적댐 유역에 대해 2011년부터 2020년까지 계절 기상 전망의 정확성을 과거 45년간의 기상 자료(climatology)와 비교하여 평가하였다. 본 연구에서는 ECMWF에서 제공하는 계절 기상 전망의 인자로 향후 수문전망에 활용성이 높은 강수, 기온 그리고 증발산을 선정하였고, 앙상블 전망의 정확성 평가를 위해 Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) 기법을 적용하였다. 또한, 계절 기상 전망에 대해 선형 편의 보정기법(Linear scaling)을 적용하여 그 효과를 평가하였다. 연구결과, 계절 기상 전망이 향후 1개월 간은 climatology와 유사한 정확도를 보이나 전망 리드타임이 증가함에 따라 그 정확도가 크게 낮아지는 특성을 나타냈다. Climatology와 비교하여, 계절적으로는 Dry season보다는 Wet season이 더 나은 결과를 보였으며, 특히 건조했던 2015년과 2017년의 Wet season에서는 장기간에 걸친 전망 정확도가 모두 높게 나타났다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Due to the growing concern over forecasting extreme weather events such as droughts caused by climate change, there has been a rising interest in seasonal meteorological forecasts that offer ensemble predictions for the upcoming seven months. Nonetheless, limited research has been conducted in South Korea, particularly in assessing their effectiveness at the catchment-scale. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of ECMWF's seasonal forecasts (including precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration) for the period of 2011 to 2020. We focused on 12 multi-purpose reservoir catchments and compared the forecasts to climatology data. Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score method is adopted to assess the forecast skill, and the linear scaling method was applied to evaluate its impact. The results showed that while the seasonal meteorological forecasts have similar skill to climatology for one month ahead, the skill decreased significantly as the forecast lead time increased. Compared to the climatology, better results were obtained in the Wet season than the Dry season. In particular, during the Wet seasons of the dry years (2015, 2017), the seasonal meteorological forecasts showed the highest skill for all lead times.

주제어

표/그림 (7)

그림 Fig. 1. (a) Location and spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation (1967-2020) across South Korea. (b) Variability of annual precipitation in each catchment (2001-2020)
그림 Fig. 2. Linear scaling process applied in this study
그림 Fig. 3. Comparison of (a) before and (b) after bias correction of seasonal meteorological forecasts (ECMWF), and (c) climatology (ensemble mean, in order from precipitation to evaporation and temperature, y-axis) with observed data(x-axis) for 12 catchments for the 1 month ahead. The red, green, blue, and orange points represent the Dry (December to February)
표 Table 1. RMSE comparison between the seasonal meteorological forecasts (ECMWF) and observed data
표 Table 2. Mean CRPS over 12 catchments at different lead times for precipitation, ET and temperature before and after correcting biases
그림 Fig. 4. Averaged CRPS (y-axis) over 12 catchments of seasonal (a) precipitation, (b) evapotranspiration and (c) temperature forecasts (ECMWF) during the dry (red line) and wet (blue line) season at different lead time (x-axis). Top to bottom rows show the average over entire years, dry years (2015, 2017) and wet years (2011, 2020)
그림 Fig. 5. Overall skill of seasonal (a) precipitation, (b) ET, (c) temperature forecasts provided by ECMWF averaged over 12 catchment for 10 years (2011~2020), before (upper row) and after (lower row) bias correction

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