[논문]SSP-RCP 기후변화 시나리오 기반 한반도의 평균 기온 및 온량지수 변화

허지나; 김용석; 조세라; 김응섭; 강민구; 심교문; 홍승길

doi:10.14191/atmos.2024.34.2.123

SSP-RCP 기후변화 시나리오 기반 한반도의 평균 기온 및 온량지수 변화
Changes in Mean Temperature and Warmth Index on the Korean Peninsula under SSP-RCP Climate Change Scenarios 원문보기

대기 = Atmosphere, v.34 no.2, 2024년, pp.123 - 138

허지나 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) , 김용석 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) , 조세라 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) , 김응섭 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) , 강민구 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) , 심교문 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) , 홍승길 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.

주제어

표/그림 (12)

표 Table 1. List of 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) used in the study.
그림 Fig. 1. Climatology of annual mean temperature (ºC) during REF period (a, b), FUT1 (c, f, i, l), FUT2 (d, g, j, m), and FUT3 (e, h, k, n) under SSP-RCP scenarios.
그림 Fig. 2. Changes of annual mean temperature with respect to HIS (1981~2010) during FUT1 (2011~2040), FUT2 (2041~2070), and FUT3 (2071~2100) under SSP-RCP scenarios. The dot denotes significant changes at 95% confidence level.
그림 Fig. 3. Time series of annual mean temperature for OBS (1981~2010), HIS (1981~2010), and SSP-RCP scenarios (2011~2100). The shaded areas and lines indicate the spread of each ensemble member (18 models) and the ensemble mean, respectively.
그림 Fig. 4. The box-percentile plot for the 30-year mean temperature over the Korean Peninsula, derived from the 18 models. The median, 25^th and 75^th percentiles are indicated by white lines, and the average is represented by a black dot in the box.
그림 Fig. 5. Changes of monthly mean temperature with respect to (a) FUT1 (2011~2040), (b) FUT2 (2041~2070), and (c) FUT3 (2071~2100) under SSP-RCP scenarios. The asterisk (*) denotes significant changes at 95% confidence level.
그림 Fig. 6. Climatology of Warmth Index during REF period (a, b), FUT1 (c, f, i, l), FUT2 (d, g, j, m), and FUT3 (e, h, k, n) under SSP-RCP scenarios.
그림 Fig. 7. Changes of Warmth Index with respect to HIS (1981~2010) during FUT1 (2011~2040), FUT2 (2041~2070), and FUT3 (2071~2100) under SSP-RCP scenarios. The dot denotes significant changes at 95% confidence level.
그림 Fig. 8. Time series of Warmth Index for OBS (1981~2010), HIS (1981~2010), SSP-RCP scenarios (2011~2100). The shaded areas and lines indicate the spread of each ensemble member (18 models) and the ensemble mean, respectively.
표 Table 2. The slope (ºC∙month/10 yr) of the ensemble mean Warmth Index time series during the HIS, FUT1, FUT2 and FUT3 period. The asterisk (*) refers to a statistically significant change rate at a 95% confidence interval.
그림 Fig. 9. Same as the Fig. 4, but for the Warmth Index.
그림 Fig. 10. Area with the Warmth Index above 100 during REF period (a, b), FUT1(c, f, i, l), FUT2 (d, g, j, m), and FUT3 (e, h, k, n) under SSP-RCP scenarios.

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