[논문]An enhanced approach for Trend Impact Analysis

Agami, Nedaa Mohamed Ezzat; Omran, Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed; Saleh, Mohamed Mostafa; El-Shishiny, Hisham Emad El-Din

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2008.03.006

An enhanced approach for Trend Impact Analysis

Technological forecasting and social change, v.75 no.9, 2008년, pp.1439 - 1450

Agami, Nedaa Mohamed Ezzat (Decision Support Department, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt) , Omran, Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed (The Central Lab for Agriculture Expert Systems, Department of Knowledge Engineering and Expert System Building Tools, Cairo, Egypt) , Saleh, Mohamed Mostafa (Decision Support Department, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt) , El-Shishiny, Hisham Emad El-Din (Advanced Technology and Center for Advanced Studies, IBM Cairo Technology Development Center, Cairo, Egypt)

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AbstractDecision makers in governments, corporations and institutions all need to forecast the future. Usually, traditional quantitative forecasting techniques are applied for this purpose. But the limitation of such methods is well known since all quantitative methods that are built solely on historical data (whether time-series or causal methods) produce forecasts by extrapolating such data into the future ignoring the effects of unprecedented future events that could cause deviation from the original surprise-free forecast if they were to occur. In the meanwhile, pure qualitative methods that don't utilize historical data miss its sound foundation. In the field of future studies, attempts are often made to combine quantitative and qualitative approaches using various hybrid methods such as Trend Impact Analysis. This paper introduces an advanced algorithm to enhance Trend Impact Analysis that adds another level of sophistication to the current algorithm. This advanced algorithm takes into account not only the impact of unprecedented future events' occurrences on the future trend, but also the different severity degrees with which the event might occur. This idea of severity degrees is novel, and its implementation is the main contribution of this paper.

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참고문헌 (13)

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An enhanced approach for Trend Impact Analysis

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