초록 ▼

3. 연구결과 및 정책제언
발전 플랜트 기업들의 해외 경쟁력 강화 요인 분석 결과를 살펴보면, 국제 경쟁력은 전력플랜트 부문의 사업 전문성이 강화될수록, 그리고 M&A를 적극 추진할수록 높게 나타났다. 따라서 사업 영역의 다원화보다는 전문화를 추구하고 M&A 투자 확대를 통해 사업의 전문영역 강화와 기술력 확보를 추진해야 할 것으로 보인다. 경쟁력 강화요인이 상위 5개 기업과 그렇지 않은 기업과는 다른 결과가 나왔는데, 상위 5개 기업은 현금 유동성이 좋을수록, 그리고 그 이외 기업들은 R&D 비중이 높고 현금 유동성보다는 좀

3. 연구결과 및 정책제언
발전 플랜트 기업들의 해외 경쟁력 강화 요인 분석 결과를 살펴보면, 국제 경쟁력은 전력플랜트 부문의 사업 전문성이 강화될수록, 그리고 M&A를 적극 추진할수록 높게 나타났다. 따라서 사업 영역의 다원화보다는 전문화를 추구하고 M&A 투자 확대를 통해 사업의 전문영역 강화와 기술력 확보를 추진해야 할 것으로 보인다. 경쟁력 강화요인이 상위 5개 기업과 그렇지 않은 기업과는 다른 결과가 나왔는데, 상위 5개 기업은 현금 유동성이 좋을수록, 그리고 그 이외 기업들은 R&D 비중이 높고 현금 유동성보다는 좀 더 공격적인 투자를 할수록 국제경쟁력이 향상되는 것으로 나타났다. 결국 기업의 국제 경쟁력 강화에는 적극적인 투자 전략을 통한 전문성을 갖추는 것이 핵심 요인이라는 점을 알 수 있었다.
외국 문헌 등을 통해 향후 에너지 설비 수요 전망을 살펴보면 2025년 이후부터는 석탄 발전을 비롯한 화력발전 수요가 매우 감소할 것으로 예상함에 따라 우리나라가 강점이 있는 이들 분야의 국제 수주경쟁은 앞으로 더욱 치열해질 것으로 보인다. 또한 기존의 노후화되거나 퇴출되는 화력발전은 고효율 발전 설비나 신재생 발전 등으로 대체되면서 화력발전 부문의 국제경쟁력은 얼마나 효율적이고 친환경적인 기술 우위를 가지고 있는지에 따라 판가름 날 전망이다. 따라서, 중동 및 아시아 지역에 치중된 우리나라의 발전 플랜트 수출 포트폴리오도 분야별 유망 지역을 중심으로 재편해야 할 것이다. 이외에도 국외 발전 및 전력 인프라 시장은 기후변화, 원전의 안정성, 에너지가격, 기술개발 정도에 따라 그 변화가 심해질 것으로 예상됨에 따라 정부와 기업이 협력하여 지속적으로 동향을 파악하고 더불어 선제 대응전략을 수립해 나가야 할 것이다.
국제 수주 경쟁에서 수주 성공률을 높이는 주요 요인으로는 수주원가를 얼마나 낮추는지에 달려있다. 따라서 원가 비중에서 가장 높은 비중을 차지하고 있는 기자재의 국산화율을 높이는 것이 무엇보다 필요하다. 특히 향후 국제 시장 규모가 커질 것으로 예상되지만, 국내 원천기술도 없고 외국 선진 기술에 대한 의존도가 높으면서도 부가가치가 높은 HSC 발전기술, 대형 가스 터빈 설계기술, IGCC 상용화 기술 등을 우선으로 국산화할 필요가 있다. 이러한 기술력 확보는 최근에야 현재 정부와 산학연 합동 R&D 사업 위주로 추진하고 있는데, 목표하는 성과를 달성하기 위해서는 지속적인 정부 지원도 중요하지만, 사업 추진 상황의 점검과 성과 평가 체계를 갖추는 것도 필요하다. 더 나아가 국제적 환경 변화와 국내 여건 등을 고려해 과제의 지속적 추진 여부도 재검토할 수 있는 제도적 장치도 마련되어야 할 것으로 보인다. 기자재 자급률과 기술 수준을 높이기 위해서는 기술개발도 중요하지만, 기자재 산업의 고도화를 달성하기 위한 정책적 노력도 함께 필요하다. 현재 중소기업들이 전문 기업으로서의 경쟁력을 가질 수 있게끔 현재 금융지원, 장비 보급 및 기술력 확보에 필요한 지원등을 하고는 있으나, 실제로 금융지원 혜택의 비대칭성이 나타나고, 관련 기술 R&D 사업에 참여가 배제되는 경우가 있어 기술 자립화의 기반을 갖추지 못하고 있는 형편이다. 이 때문에 수시로 현황을 파악하는 등 제도적 개선을 해나가는 노력을 할 필요가 있을 것이다.
기자재 수행실적 강화를 위해서는 국산 기자재를 사용하는 플랜트 실증단지를 확대 구축하고, 국내 기업들이 국외에서 발주하는 발전 및 전력인프라 사업에 동반 참여할 수 있도록 국가가 일정 품질이나 조건을 갖춘 기업을 보증하는 제도 등이 도입되어야 할 것이다. 우리 기업이 국제 경쟁력을 갖춘 글로벌 기업으로 성장하기 위해서는 중동아시아 지역의 진출 위주에서 인도, 북미 등 신전략지역으로의 진출확대를 도모하고 미래 대응 및 기술력 강화를 위해 기업 차원의 R&D, M&A 등의 과감하고 공격적인 투자를 보다 확대할 필요가 있다. 또한, 발전 부문 가치사슬(value chain)에 대한 개별 인력뿐 아니라 기획, 실행 및 통제 등 총괄 분야를 다룰 만한 전문 인력을 정부와 기업이 합동으로 육성해 나아가야 할 것이다.

Abstract ▼

1. Necessity and purpose of research
As they seek to make inroads into the international market due to the saturation of the domestic market, South Korea's power plant manufacturers have been able to accumulate remarkable plant-building skills and plenty experience in winning overseas contracts.

1. Necessity and purpose of research
As they seek to make inroads into the international market due to the saturation of the domestic market, South Korea's power plant manufacturers have been able to accumulate remarkable plant-building skills and plenty experience in winning overseas contracts. As a result, the overseas power plant industry has contributed to the nation's economic development to the extent that the electricity-generating plant made up 30% or more of the plant export to the foreign markets as of the end of 2012. Looking deep inside, however, only a few large construction companies have the competence to launch overseas projects, and their technological prowess hovers around 60% of that of the counterparts in the developed countries, being highly dependent on the foreign core technology and equipment. For this reason, the nation's plant exporters gain petty profits compared with the achievements of winning orders and have shaky global competitiveness. To expand export of the nation's generation and electricity infrastructure constantly, thus, it is necessary to consider how to boost competitiveness in winning orders on a company level by raising the current frail competitiveness to that of foreign leaders, sophisticate the industry on a national level and support the efforts in terms of policy and system. This study based on the necessity of research on the issue above seeks to present what is needed for the nation to compete better in winning orders of the generation and electricity infrastructure in the global market by analyzing the markets abroad, the trend of technological development and factors determining foreign power plant makers' global competitiveness.
This report focuses on the generation and electricity infrastructure sector, the 2nd-year task of the 3-year project.
This research concentrates mainly on three things. Firstly, this study contemplates which area of the generation and electricity infrastructure plant sector will have a sustainable growth in the future, which requires looking into the characteristics of the coaland gas-powered plant market and power transmission and distribution equipment market, the forecast of the market and the scale of investment. Secondly this study garners information on the current status and problems of the nation's thermal power generation and electricity infrastructure export industry. Hence, this report examined the domestic companies' achievements in winning foreign orders for generation and electricity infrastructure facility, technological level by field and the government's current policies to bolster technological prowess. Lastly, this report seeks to present how to make up for the weak points in order to strengthen the nation's businesses in the generation and electricity infrastructure equipment sector, the target of this research. To this end, this report analyzes the balance sheet and foreign-project-winning data of the top 50 companies in terms of market share in the foreign generation market, determine factors to improve global competitiveness through a model of factors considered to boost global competitiveness.
2. Content summary
A power plant refers to a power-generating facility that generates electricity with fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, nuclear power, water and flammable waste. Such power plants can be called a comprehensive industry integrating a variety of technologies, such as monitoring and control system and maintenance for management of facilities, as well as treating and supply of materials, boilers to convert energy, gas turbines and heat exchanger and environmental-pollution-reducing facilities.
A thermal power plant's equipment is divided into primary equipment and secondary equipment. It is notable that the primary equipment accounts for about 40% of a project's total costs. While steam turbines and boilers make up the biggest portion of the primary equipment of coal-powered plants, gas turbines make up the biggest portion of the gas-combined thermal plants. Reducing the share of primary equipment in terms of cost is essential to competitiveness in bringing in projects.
IEA'S 2012 outlook of the energy and facility sector shows that the demand for coal- and gas-powered plants will gradually go up until 2025 but the scale of thermal power generation will significantly go down due to an increase in renewable generation between 2025 and 2035. In addition, investment in coal-powered generation will grow in Asia, such as China, India and Southeastern countries, in 2035, while investment in gas-powered generation will rise in the member countries of OECD, the Middle East countries and in the Eurasian region, and for infrastructure related to transmission and distribution, developing countries, such as China, India and Asian countries, are likely to invest approximately 6 trillion dollars.
The trend of mergers & acquisitions in the generation and electricity infrastructure over the last 5 years shows that M&A in the generation sector usually aim for optimization and diversification of assets in expanding presence in the emerging regions and new fields, M&A in the electrical grid, such as transmission and distribution, aim for securing profits from projects by seeking to enter the regions, including Europe, where regulations are relatively being eased.
The trend of technology development in the generation and electricity infrastructure shows that in the coal power generation, robust effort is being made to develop technology regarding the HSC generation that is highly efficient in terms of generation, emits less Co₂ and can be combined with CCS, Co₂ Collection System. In South Korea, however, it is only in the research phase. For gas power plants, highly efficient gas turbines that can drive high capacity of 250MW or greater, but the nation's technology for gas turbine except for small turbine components and secondary equipment manufacturing is mostly dependent on foreign technology.
IGCC, an integrated gasification combined cycle, is a highly efficient generation that can reduce 90% or more of harmful gas emissions, generate electricity from various fuels and be used for high added value in a variety of forms, one of the generation technologies drawing growing global attention. The demonstration plant is in operation in the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands and Japan, and the nation also has established the IGCC task force, beginning the construction of a 300MW demonstration plant. For transmission and distribution technology, there are HVDC, high voltage direct current, and superconducting technology. For HVDC, the European companies have such a high market share that it is not easy to enter, while for superconducting technology, the U.S. and European companies are leading, but Chinese, Japanese and Korean companies are following.
To assess the nation's technological level, this report consulted the evaluation of the nation's industrial technology level announced by the government so far. As a result, it is found that the nation's gas turbine technology for generation hovers around 50% of the developed countries and is 8 years behind compared with that of the U.S., which boasts the world's best technological prowess. The technological level in thermal power, combined cycle power and coal-gasification gas-combined thermal generation is 80%, 75% and 65%, respectively, compared with that of the developed countries.
The technological level of the gas-combined thermal generation is at the bottom among them. Of transmission and distribution grid technology, the nation has reached 68% of superconducting technology of the developed countries. The assessment of technology in gas & steam turbines, HRSG, boilers, engine and DeSOx & DeNOx equipment, the primary equipment of generation facilities, shows that the nation is lagging far behind the developed countries in turbine technology and DeSOx & DeNOx in terms of experience and core technology. The analysis of the U.S.' number of patent applications in generation indicates that the nation is behind the U.S., Japan and the European countries in patent application for highly-efficient equipment than for thermal power generation, which means more investment in and research on technology in the field should be made.
To boost gas turbine and coal-gasification gas-combined technology, whose technological level should be improved, and the specialty of small- and medium-sized enterprises, policies focused on R&D has been implemented lately. To develop gas-turbine technology, the government formed a consortium of the business, the academy and the research led by the private sector in 2013, prepared and has been implementing a plan for developing technology in phases. To develop coal-gasification gas-combined generation, the private sector has led the efforts to develop South Korea's own IGCC model since 2011 in three phases: basic engineering to detailed engineering; manufacturing of engineering equipment and fostering workforce for operation monitoring and operation personnel.
In addition, the government has been supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises so that they can secure material and equipment technology of core components.
This study analyzed the factors determining market shares in order to find out which factor strengthens global competitiveness of EPC companies in the generation sector at home and abroad. The market share of each EPC business based on the generation capacity of the power plant for which they won the order and of which they have begun the construction is used as the index competitiveness of each EPC-specialized business. As the explanatory variable are used the concentration ratio of orders won by the EPC businesses winning by region, the long- and short-term cash flow of the businesses. the concentration ratio in the electricity plant, the experience of winning orders for electricity plants in the six regions of North America, Asia, Africa, Europe, Central and South America and the Middle East, the accumulate achievements in M&A and the ration of investment in R&D to the sales. As an analysis methodology, the Logit transformation model using Papke and Wooldridge's Quasi-Likelihood (1966) is used.
3. Result of the research and policy suggestions
The result of analyzing the factors to strengthen power plant makers' global competitiveness, the more specialized the companies are in the electricity plant and the more aggressively they push for M&As, the better global competitiveness they have. Thus, they seem to have to pursue specialization instead of diversification in terms of field of business, bolster specialized business and secure technological prowess through more investment in M&A. The competitiveness-strengthening factors differ between the top five companies and the rest. For the top five companies, the more healthy cash flow they have, the stronger their global competitiveness is, while for the rest, the more and aggressive investment in R&D they make instead of improving cash flow, the more robust their global competitiveness is. In a nutshell, gaining specialization through aggressive investment strategies is the key to shoring up a company's global competitiveness.
The outlook for the demand for energy equipment in the foreign literature shows that the demand for thermal power plants including coal power stations is expected to decrease substantially from 2025.
So in the areas where the nation has strengths, the competition to win orders in the global market appears to get fiercer. In addition, as the existing thermal power plants aging or being demolished are replaced with highly efficient generating facilities or renewable generation, the global competitiveness in the thermal power plants depends on how much efficient and environmental-friendly one's technology is. The nation's generation plant export portfolio concentrated heavily on the Middle East and the Asian region should be overhauled with focus on the promising regions by field.
Furthermore, as the international generation and electricity infrastructure market is expected to change radically according to climate change, stability of nuclear power plants, energy prices and level technology development, the government and businesses should cooperate to follow the trend and establish pre-emptive strategies constantly.
Lowering bidding prices determines success rate in winning orders in the global market. Thus, it is more important than anything else to raise the level of localization in equipment, which accounts for the biggest portion of costs. The top priority in terms of localization is HSC generation technology, large gas turbine engineering technology and IGCC commercialization technology because though the global market is going to grow in the future, the nation has no original technology, is heavily dependent on foreign advanced technology and they are high added-value technologies. Only recently have the efforts begun to secure such technologies mainly with R&D projects involving the government, the academy and the business. It is true that constant government support is essential to achieving the goal, but it is also true that it is necessary to establish a system to check the status of projects and evaluate achievements. Furthermore, it seems that an institutional grid should be set to review whether to push for projects continuously in consideration of changes in the global market and the situation in the nation. To boost the localization rate of equipment and level of technology, it is critical to prepare policies to sophisticate the equipment industry as well as to develop technology. The government provides financial support and help in spreading equipment and securing technological prowess so that small- and medium-sized enterprises can have competitive edge. In reality, however, financial support is asymmetrically given and R&D projects of the related technology are not available, making it impossible to accomplish technological independence.
Hence, it is necessary to make efforts to improve the system by checking the status as frequently as possible.
To help accumulate equipment-related know-how, the government is advised to expand plant demonstration complexes using local equipment and introduce a system of the government guaranteeing qualified companies so that local companies can participate in the generation and electricity infrastructure projects abroad.
To grow as global leaders with competitive edge in the global market, businesses have to seek to enter the new strategic regions, such as India and North America, instead of focusing on the Middle East and the Asian region, and make more aggressive investment, for example in R&D and M&A, in order to respond to the future and strengthen technological prowess. In addition, the government and businesses have to join hands to foster specialized talent that can oversee all the fields from planning to executing and controlling as well as individual workers in the value chain in the generation sector.

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 참여연구진 ... 4
• 요 약 ... 6
• ABSTRACT ... 14
• 제목 차례 ... 26
• 표 차례 ... 28
• 그림 차례 ... 30
• 제1장 서 론 ... 32
• 1. 연구의 필요성과 목적 ... 32
• 2. 본 연구의 초점과 구성 ... 33
• 제2장 발전 및 전력 인프라 부문 해외 시장 동향 및 전망 ... 36
• 1. 발전 및 전력 인프라 플랜트 개념 및 범위 ... 36
• 2. 주요 발전 및 전력인프라 부문 국제 시장 동향 및 전망 ... 41
• 가. 발전 및 전력인프라 국제 시장 동향 ... 41
• 나. 발전 및 전력인프라 국제 시장 및 투자 규모 전망 ... 44
• 3. 세계 발전 및 전력 인프라 부문의 M&A 동향 ... 49
• 4. 주요 발전 및 전력 인프라 분야별 국내외 기술개발 동향 ... 52
• 가. 석탄 화력발전 ... 52
• 나. 복합화력 발전 ... 54
• 다. 석탄 가스화 복합발전(IGCC) ... 56
• 라. 전력인프라(송배전) ... 58
• 제3장 우리나라 발전 및 전력인프라 해외 수주 성과와 도전 ... 60
• 1. 우리나라 발전 및 전력 인프라 부문 해외 수주 성과 및 특징 ... 60
• 2. 국내외 주요 기업들의 화력 발전 플랜트 부문별 사업 영역 비교 ... 62
• 3. 우리나라의 발전 및 전력 인프라 부분의 기술 수준 ... 65
• 가. 발전플랜트 부문의 기술 수준 ... 65
• 나. 전력인프라 관련 기술 수준 ... 69
• 다. 기자재분야 기술 수준 ... 71
• 라. 특허출원 ... 74
• 4. 발전 및 전력 인프라 부문 국제 경쟁력 제고를 위한 정책 방향 ... 75
• 제4장 국내외 발전플랜트 기업들의 경쟁력 결정 요인 실증 분석 ... 84
• 1. 전력플랜트 EPC 기업의 경쟁력 결정요인에 관한 기존의 연구 ... 84
• 가. 전력플랜트 지역별 집중도와 기업 성과 ... 85
• 나. 연구개발(R&D) 투자 ... 85
• 다. 인수합병(M&A) ... 86
• 라. 전력플랜트 건설 경험 및 전문화 정도 ... 87
• 마. 장단기 유동성 ... 88
• 바. 기타 ... 89
• 2. 전력플랜트 EPC 기업의 경쟁력 결정요인 분석 ... 90
• 가. 분석 모형 ... 90
• 나. 분석자료 ... 92
• 다. 분석 방법론 ... 99
• 라. 분석 결과 ... 103
• 3. 소결론 ... 114
• 제5장 결론 및 시사점 ... 118
• 참 고 문 헌 ... 122
• 부 록 ... 126
• 끝페이지 ... 136