초록 ▼

본 연구에서는 홍수대응 의사결정을 위한 수문모델을 개발하고 기상-해양모델과의 연계해석을 통해 홍수위험정보를 생산 및 제공하고자 한다. 이를 위해 기존 수문모델(Ⅰ)을 구축하여 기상-해양 모델과의 연계성능 평가 및 문제점 검토 후, 국내 실정에 적합한 수문 모델(Ⅱ)를 개발할 계획이다. 금년 1차년도에는 국내외 기술개발 동향을 조사하고 수문전문가 입장에서 기상 및 해양모델에 대한 이해를 통해 기상-해양-수문모델의 연계해석 방안을 도출하였다. 기존 수문모델을 조사 및 검토하여 각 이론적 특징 및 적용사례를 분석하였다. 후보 수문모델로

본 연구에서는 홍수대응 의사결정을 위한 수문모델을 개발하고 기상-해양모델과의 연계해석을 통해 홍수위험정보를 생산 및 제공하고자 한다. 이를 위해 기존 수문모델(Ⅰ)을 구축하여 기상-해양 모델과의 연계성능 평가 및 문제점 검토 후, 국내 실정에 적합한 수문 모델(Ⅱ)를 개발할 계획이다. 금년 1차년도에는 국내외 기술개발 동향을 조사하고 수문전문가 입장에서 기상 및 해양모델에 대한 이해를 통해 기상-해양-수문모델의 연계해석 방안을 도출하였다. 기존 수문모델을 조사 및 검토하여 각 이론적 특징 및 적용사례를 분석하였다. 후보 수문모델로 SURR 및 VIC 모델을 선정하였다. 대상유역은 임진강 유역이며, 유역의 지형학적 특성 및 과거 홍수피해 현황을 조사하였다. 수문모델을 구축하기 위해 지형 및 기상자료를 수집하였다. 다만, 임진강 유역의 상류부근은 이북지역에 해당하여 국내에서 제공하는 지형자료의 활용이 어려워 전지구 자료를 수집 및 구축하였다. 후보 모델 중 VIC 모델을 임진강 유역에 구축하였으며, 매개변수에 대한 민감도 분석 후, 과거 이벤트 기간에 대한 모델 매개변수 추정 및 활용성을 평가하였다. 대체로 모의 유량이 관측유량의 거동과 유사한 것으로 확인되었으며, 통계적 분석에서도 상관계수(CC) 0.65~0.81, 평균제곱근오차(RMSE) 681.2~1,039.7m³/s, 모델효율성계수(ME) 0.54~0.62, 유출용적오차(VE) -6.39~14.60%로 나타났다. 기상변화에 따른 수문성분의 변화를 분석하고자 강수량(P), 기온(T), 평균풍속(W)의 변화에 따른 유출 및 증발산량의 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 유출과 토양수분의 경우 강수의 변화, 증발산량은 기온의 변화에 가장 민감한 것 으로 나타났으며, 평균풍속의 변화는 강수 및 기온에 보단 수문성분에 미치는 영향이 적은 것으로 확인되었다.

Abstract ▼

Ⅳ. Result of the study
○ Development of technique in Korea and the foreign countries
∙ The development of Hydrological model in the foreign case is surveyed as below. Recently, in Hydro-meteorological field of the developed countries, the development of high-performance computers and satellite

Ⅳ. Result of the study
○ Development of technique in Korea and the foreign countries
∙ The development of Hydrological model in the foreign case is surveyed as below. Recently, in Hydro-meteorological field of the developed countries, the development of high-performance computers and satellite data and GIS analysis of technology to improve the accuracy of flood forecast in flood by using hydrological models. Until this present, there are several continuous and distributed hydrological model to be developed and widely applied all over the world, such as: AGNPS, GSSHA, VfloTM model (United States); WATFLOOD (Canada); Mike SHE (Europe); WEP, Hydro-BEAM model (Japan) etc. These models are applied more optimal than the traditional centralized models because these models simulate the hydrologic phenomenon successively to reduce the difficulty of model parameter estimation. Moreover, the situation hydrology components of watershed have been identified in the temporal and spatial distribution
∙ Meteorology-Oceanography-hydrology linkage analysis applying in foreign cases was surveyed as below. Taylor et al (2012) established a Meteorology-oceanography-hydrology model for the operation of flood forecasting system and presented its usability. Womersley et al. (2012) applied on Gipsland watershed, using the weather information from ACESS (Australian Meteorological in conjunction with the oceanography model) OceanMAP5 to construct the input data for hydrological model - MIKE for the flood forecast system, the linkage of the three cases is to interpret and to improve the accuracy of the flood forecasting

○ Meteorology derivation of Meteorology-oceanography-hydrology models linkage analysis
∙ To review the existing systems and the applied areas of Meteorology-ocean-hydrology linkages analysis in terms of flood forecasting
∙ In the range of hydrological models, the results of the weather forecast model (such as precipitation, temperature, etc.) were used as input, parameters, indicators to simulate the flow information. While, the sea level, tide information calculated in ocean models is to utilize as the boundary conditions These databases are intended to analysis flood level and other flood informations in hydrological models

○ Survey and analysis of the existing hydrological models
∙ Many hydrological models had been developed after the SWM (Standford Watershed Model) developed by Crawford and Linsley (1966) in 1960s
. Spatial models are called the lumped or distributed models, while temporal models are called the event or continuous model (Rodda, 1999). In this study, we investigate the utilization of each model and choose SURR and VIC models to analyze

○ Selection of study areas and collection of basic data
∙ Study area: Imjin River Basin
∙ Latitude 37° 44′23″～39° 11′12″, longitude 126° 31′19″～127°36′ 21″, located at the upstream of the Han River. The total basin area is 8,138.90km² and the total length of the river is 273.50 km
∙ Topography in Imjin river is required to establish the hydrological model, however it is difficult to obtain the information of the northern of study area
∙ In the field of hydrology, the developed countries and other countries has develop the network for meteorology and hydrology information, more specialized satellite images and GIS information to provide the topographic information
∙ Besides, the institutions or agencies provide the geographic information in study area

○ Construction and applicability assessment of existing hydrological model
∙ For existing model VIC, the parameter is estimated from estimation is the flood event in history of Imjin River basin
∙ The estimation of Model parameter is generally the result of the calibration and verification based on the comparison between the observed flow and the simulated flow
∙ In addition, the statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient (CC) represented by 0.65 ~ 0.81, the root mean square error (RMSE) represented by 681.2 ~ 1,039.7m³/s, the mean error (ME) represented by 0.54~0.62, and the volume error outflow (VE) represented by 6.39~14.60%.
∙ To analyze the changes of the hydrological components due to climate change such as Precipitation (P), temperature (T), the mean wind speed (W) are to perform the sensitivity of analysis on the runoff and evapotranspiration.
∙ In the case of the change of runoff, soil moisture is found to be most sensitive to the change of temperature precipitation, evapotranspiration
∙ The variation of the mean wind speed is defined to be less impact on the runoff than the other hydrological components such as the precipitation and temperature.