보고서 정보
주관연구기관 |
한국건설기술연구원 Korea Institute Of Construction Technology |
연구책임자 |
김남원
|
참여연구자 |
김형섭
,
정일문
,
김철겸
,
원유승
,
이도훈
,
김상현
,
신현석
,
김원식
,
서병하
|
보고서유형 | 1단계보고서 |
발행국가 | 대한민국 |
언어 |
한국어
|
발행년월 | 2004-09 |
과제시작연도 |
2003 |
주관부처 |
미래창조과학부 Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning |
등록번호 |
TRKO201500019237 |
과제고유번호 |
1350010392 |
사업명 |
21C프론티어연구개발사업 |
DB 구축일자 |
2018-12-01
|
키워드 |
수분성분.면적평균강우량.증발산.토양수분.토지이용.농업용수.도시화.저류시설.기후변화.지하수유출.한국형 장기유출모형 SWAT-K.hydrological component.area averagy rainfall.evapotranspiration.soil moisture.land use.irrigation water.urbanization.storage facility.climatic change.groundwater runoff.long term model SWAT-K.
|
초록
▼
본 연구는 우리나라를 대상으로 수문성분별 요소의 정량, 정성적인 거동과 상호작용을 규명하는 것으로서, 우리나라 실정에 알맞은 수문성분의 관계의 규명 및 수문성분의 공식화를 연구의 목적으로 한다. 각 수문성분의 정성적, 정량적인 거동을 명확히 파악하기 위하여 강우, 증발산, 토양수분, 인위적 및 자연적 물 순환구조변화성분 부분으로 나누어 독립적으로 각 특성을 규명하는 한편, 이의 각 성분 특성을 반영할 수 있는 유출모의모형을 개발하는 것이 최종 목표이며, 이 목표를 향한 실행 연구를 9개 단위 소과제로 나누어 수행하였다.
유출모
본 연구는 우리나라를 대상으로 수문성분별 요소의 정량, 정성적인 거동과 상호작용을 규명하는 것으로서, 우리나라 실정에 알맞은 수문성분의 관계의 규명 및 수문성분의 공식화를 연구의 목적으로 한다. 각 수문성분의 정성적, 정량적인 거동을 명확히 파악하기 위하여 강우, 증발산, 토양수분, 인위적 및 자연적 물 순환구조변화성분 부분으로 나누어 독립적으로 각 특성을 규명하는 한편, 이의 각 성분 특성을 반영할 수 있는 유출모의모형을 개발하는 것이 최종 목표이며, 이 목표를 향한 실행 연구를 9개 단위 소과제로 나누어 수행하였다.
유출모형 구조평가를 통해서 얻어진 장기유출모형인 SWAT과 PRMS 모형을 용담댐유역에 적용하여 모형의 효율성과 적용성을 검토한 바 SWAT모형이 국내 유역에 적합한 것으로 판단되었다. 이에 따라 SWAT 유역 물수지 해석을 토지이용 및 저류시설 그리고 도시화에 의한 영향으로 나누어 분석한 결과 각각의 영향을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있음을 확인하였다.
강우부분에서는 면적강우량 오차가 장기유출에 미치는 영향을 검토한 바 약 20%의 추정오차가 발생하였으며 산악효과의 영향은 매우 가변적임을 알 수 있었다. 증발산 분야에서는 국내에 확보된 증발산 실험 및 관측자료에 입각하여 잠재증발산 공식을 검정하고 지면모형에 의해 실제증발산의 모의여부를 검토하고 작물계수를 검정했다. 토양수분모형에서는 설마천유역의 토양층에 따른 수분을 측정하고, SDFAA알고리즘을 개발하는 한편 실제 강우사상을 고려한 동력학적 습윤지수를 개발하였다. 저류시설물의 영향을 위해서 인위적인 저류시설과 하도 영향을 검토하여 그 영향 정도가 계절에 따른 유출에 영향을 미침을 알 수 있었다. 지하수의 장기유출특성을 Rora 방법을 이용하여 유역별로 평가하였으며 지표수-지하수 연계로 SWAT-MODFLOW, SWAT-MIKE SHE모형을 순차적으로 연계하였다. 기후변화에 의한 유출거동을 규명부분에서는 금강유역에 적용하여 2CO2 상황에서 일유출 모의를 통합하기 위한 한국형 장기유출모형 SWAT-K를 개발하였는데 완전연동형 SWAT-SWMM, SWAT-MODFLOW 결합모형과 농업용수 운영모형인 SWAT-AGRIMAN이 포함된다. 결합모형을 통해 기존의 SWAT모형의 단점을 극복할 수 있었다.
Abstract
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IV. Results of the Study
In this study, each hydrological component is itemized for each research centers. Overall, the study was categorized in two parts. One is for considering natural hydrology components such as areal average rainfall analysis, evapotranspiration estimation, soil moisture pre
IV. Results of the Study
In this study, each hydrological component is itemized for each research centers. Overall, the study was categorized in two parts. One is for considering natural hydrology components such as areal average rainfall analysis, evapotranspiration estimation, soil moisture prediction modeling, climate change, and groundwater analysis. The other is for considering artificial components such as land use change, storage facilities, urbanization, etc. Two parts are joined and linked in rainfall-runoff modeling research.
The followings are the study contents and results for each research unit for last 3years.
1. Comparison on the structure of longterm runoff models
In Korea, TANK model is the most popular model and it is widely used. DAWAST model which was developed in Korea is also used but not so popular. Besides these models, HSPF, NWS-PC, PRMS, SSARR and SWAT model were also used for special purposes. In the model selection, it should be considered on the applicability of natural and artificial variation of hydrological components and that of sub-projects of SWRRC. As we don't have a sufficient time to develop a new model, we should review the developed models. In reviewing process, we mainly focused on the condition of the model which should be proper in Korean watershed situation. So we investigated whether the model structure and parameters are proper to Korean watershed characteristics and objectives. Also the assessment of model features and its applicability is performed. Therefore, SWAT(Soil Water Assessment Tool, Neitsch et. al, 2001) which is recommended semi-distributed model by USDA and PRMS model by USGS are selected as the proper modelsin Korean watershed.
The inhancement of hydrologic data management is suggested through issuing 'The outlook of water supply in Korea'.
2. Water budget analysis of watershed
The selected models SWAT/PRMS were applied to the experimental watershed of SWRRC and 3 IHP watersheds whether they reflect land use and soil types properly. Among these applications, the results of calibration and verification of model in Yongdam watershed showed good model model efficiency.
PRMS model showed a reasonable results when optimization technique was applied. The number and size of HRU did not give a significant effect on the runoff simulation. There was a tendency of convergence with the increase of the number of HRU and subbasin, but the effect was negligible. So there was a weak sensitivity of HRU size in PRMS model. Therefore we can conclude that the model is a kind of lumped model which can not explain the distributed characteristics of watershed.
To evaluate the effect of land use change on the long term hydrological cycle, the effect of runoff due to vegetation change and urbanization is quantified. Also, we prove the relation between water consumption and return flow, and to understand stream flow variation according to use water for irrigation.
The variation of evapotranspiration, surface and groundwater flow, soil moisture was analyzed to understand the effect of land use change for various scenarios for 10 years(1990-1999). The largest hydrological change happened when forest evergreen change as forest deciduous.
The longterm runoff behavior of watershed due to urbanization is affected by land use, artificial structure and the changes of stream environment. When hydrological modeling is performed, these variable characteristics of watershed can be properly reflected by surface, stream flow and groundwater components. The objective of this study is mainly focused on the modification of algorithm in SWAT. This is to quantify the long-term runoff variation in urban watershed. To analyze the characteristics of runoff behavior due to urbanization, SWAT model was applied to the Gyungan-Cheon watershed.
3. Estimation error, bias, and orographic effect on areal average rainfall
The objective of this study is the estimation error, bias, and orographic effect on areal average rainfall in Korea. An application was given to the Geum River Basin for estimating the effect of monthly rainfall variation on the estimation errors. In this application total 28 rain gauge measurements having more than 30 years of daily rainfall measurements were used to estimate the monthly and annual area average rainfall depths and their estimation errors. When estimating the error involved in the area-average rainfall considering the spatial correlation, the amount of error is very dependent on the level of correlation. That is, the higher the spatial correlation, the smaller the estimation error. As the error estimated without considering the spatial correlation considers only the point variation, it is found to become more or less proportional to the rainfall amount. The absolute estimation error of monthly area-average rainfall show strong seasonality like the total rainfall amount. However, the relative estimation error normalized by its mean was estimated to have similar values about 5 to 8% except January and December. The relative estimation error of annual area-average rainfall estimated was found to have the estimation error about 3% of its annual mean. However, the relative estimation error normalized by the standard deviation remains almost the same for both monthly and annual rainfall amounts, which was estimated about 11% of its standard deviation. Finally, the estimation error without considering the spatial correlation was found to become almost twice the estimation error with considering the spatial correlation.
In this study, a methodology for quantifying the orographic effect on rainfall is proposed and the effect on the rainfall variability is estimated. This study has been applied to the Han river basin, and the following results are derived. No obvious linear or non-linear trends could be found between the annual, monthly, or rainfall amounts and the elevation. However, rather obvious increase of rainfall amount could be found around the elevation of 600 m. Analysis of hourly data did not show any consistent trend of rainfall amount to the elevation. In some cases the orographic seem to be more obvious, but in other many cases, The EOF analysis let the derivation of orographic effect become available, especially for the rainfall events with their direction from west to east. The coefficient time series show a very high correlation to the rainfall of the upstream mountain area, but low to the downstream plain area. In the upstream mountain area, the orographic effect are found to affect maximum 20-30% of the rainfall variability.
In this study, the effects of estimation error on areal average rainfall to longterm runoff features were studied. Runoff results according to density of rainfall gauge and scale of subcatchment were described by using SWAT model. Applying this method to Yongdam watershed, we found out some results. It is thought that the proper density of rainfall gauge would be 130 ㎢ which has some difference with average scale of subcatchment. In case of SWAT model, the scale of subcatchment is dependent on the number of rainfall gauge. This density is slightly over the orographic criteria suggested by WMO.
4. Field-evaluation of Penman-Monteith Combination Equation and Application of Next Generation Land Surface Model
The objective of this study is to understand actual evapotranspiration process in Korea on the basis of actual data. In order to get directly measured regional evapotranspiration data with high accuracy, eddy-covariance method was adopted. Validation of PM combination equation and land surface model is also performed using these data. This integrated approach including measurement, theoretical approach, and modeling is only way to understand atmospheric/biological/terrain factors which influence evapo-transpiration. This approach can also contribute to the analysis of hydrological components.
Actual evapotranspiration(ET) data for rice paddies and forests in Korea were extracted from KOFLUX data archives, and used to derive crop coefficients of the FAO Penman-Monteith formula for the actual ET estimation. Amount of potential evapotranspiration was calculated by FAO PM combination equation, and evapotranspiration from vegetation and evaporation from surface were simulated by land surface model (SiB2) to validate the model property. Therefore, we try to simulate by SiB2 at Selma river basin for guessing the rate of hydrological factors and understanding its pattern. First of all, evapotranspiration calculated by SiB2 compare with it measured by eddy-covariance method. As the result of comparison, SiB2 was modified for adopting to the environment of Selma river basin specially. SiB2 modified for Selma river basin simulates evapotranspiration having similar pattern with it measured. And runoff, one of SiB2's output variables, simulated is also very similar to it measured for 1 year.
5. The development of the soil moisture prediction model for Korean watershed
Regarding to the prediction model of soil moisture for Korean watershed, this study accomplished as follows :
DEM of Sulmachun watershed, the qualitative information at soil layer and spatial information of soil depth were constructed to provide basic data for the prediction model of spatial distribution of soil moisture in the watershed scale. In addition to the curvature coefficient which is the index of soil erosion and accumulation, the distribution of subsurface flow were calculated to induce the flow distribution algorithm in Korean watershed for estimation of soil moisture. Moreover, Spatially Distributed Flow Apportioning Algorithm has been developed for estimation of soil moisture. Besides, it makes possible to predict spatial distribution of the channel network through optimization of developed algorithm. The relationship between the grid size and topography index were studied to explain spatial characteristics of watershed. Algorithms calculating upslope contributing area and wetness index in DEM, rainfall data and soil matrix information were merged for the study of comparing steady state, quasi dynamical state and dynamic state modeling process of wetness index analyzing the relation between soil moisture and topography.
The quasi-dynamical and dynamical wetness index were suggested relieving the steady state assumption depending upon various gird size and drainage time. Furthermore, statistical analysis of the spatial analysis provide an insight of flow determination impact to the hydrological simulation. The spatial and temporal distribution data of soil moisture in the rainfall runoff event provide an comparison of simulation to the field conditions.
6. Variability and Reliability Analysis of Long Term Streamflow Caused by Artificial Storage Facilities in a Watershed
The effect of artificial storage facilities is analyzed to understand the mechanism of those facilities which influences long term runoff characteristics. SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment tool) is selected for proper analysis and various facilities such as reservoir, pond and wetland, bank storage and depression storage are considered. Suyoung river basin(mid-scale watershed) and Yongdam watershed(large scale watershed) are considered for simulation. A number of scenarios were made considering three storage facility effects such as reservoir, pond and bank storage. The results can be summarized as follow :
1) The most evident effect of stream storage can be found in the lag property of runoff. During February to August, the gradient of groundwater recession curve was shown to be relaxed and the runoff flow was reduced. However during September to January, the runoff flow rate was increased due to the smoothed groundwater recession and the lag property.
2) The reservoir effect was shown that the 10 % of runoff was reduced in the dry year. Also the runoff reduction rate in the dry season is larger than 20% than flood season.
According to the increase of infiltration coefficient of pond bottom, 1-4 % of the runoff reduction rate in dry year was shown. From September to December, the runoff reduction rate was shown to be larger due to the increase of infiltration coefficient.
7. Analysis of long-term runoff characteristics considering groundwater flow
The annual average baseflow index derived from fixed interval, sliding interval, local minimum, and pass 2 of digital filter method was similar to each other, while the annual average baseflow derived from pass 1 of digital filter method was overestimated and the annual average baseflow derived from pass 3 of digital filter method was underestimated compared to other methods.
The estimated annual average baseflow index ranges from 19 % to 33 % with an average value of 25 %. The relatively high contribution of baseflow to total runoff suggests that the integrated surface and groundwater modeling must be considered for the assessment of long-term runoff in a river basin.
The ratio of annual average recharge volume to annual precipitation estimated from RORA ranges from 10 % to 24 % with an average value of 18 %. And the ratio of annual average recharge volume to annual precipitation estimated from the modified recession curve displacement method of Arnold and Allen (1999) ranges from 24 % to 33 % with an average value of 27 %. In general, the recharge resulted from the modified recession curve displacement method of Arnold and Allen (1999) overestimates the recharge estimated from the RORA program.
The relationship between groundwater storage and baseflow derived by solving Richards equation exhibits a linear relation and the relationship between soil moisture storage and effective infiltration is appeared to be an inverse linear relation. The dynamic response of groundwater storage and baseflow calculated from the integrated storage-flux model developed in this research is compared favorably with that of the distributed Richards equation.
The sensitivity analysis with SWAT model indicated that the most sensitive parameter on surface runoff was SCS curve number, and the most sensitive parameter on evapotranspiration was soil bulk density. The soil hydraulic conductivity was appeared to be the most sensitive on baseflow. However, the most parameters of SWAT model were not sensitive on the response of total runoff.
The performance of three different types of the integrated surface-groundwater models appeared to be similar such that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index was about 0.64. However, the combined SWAT-MODFLOW model explains the response of daily runoff better than that of the combined SWAT-MIKE SHE model or SWAT model. And it is very important to build the proper conceptual model since the responses of the combined watershed-groundwater models depended on the aquifer structure, aquifer hydraulic characteristics and stream structure.
The development and application of the combined watershed-groundwater models examined in this research were suffered by the lack of groundwater data for calibrating and validating the models. So SWAT model which has a simple, lumped structure for groundwater process can be applied to situations where groundwater data are lacking. And it is also important to select the combined watershed-groundwater models that can be developed with the available data.
8. Development of the techniques for estimating the impacts of climate change on water cycle
The objective of this study is to develop the model which estimates and quantify the impacts of the climate change on hydrological components such as rainfall, stream flow and evapotranspiration.
YONU GCM and statistical downscaling technique for 1CO₂ and 2CO₂ situations are used for this purpose. It is predicted that annual mean precipitation would increase in 2CO₂ condition and the monthly mean wet spell and dry spell would be shorter than in 1CO₂ condition and historical data. Therefore, We assumed that the frequency of extraordinary storm and concentrated storm in the Youngdam basin would be increased in 2CO₂ condition.
The daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature were simulated by the statistical downscaling model and WGEN(Weather GENerated) model. Then, we executed the SPI (Standardized precipitation index) analysis using precipitation data.
SLURP hydrologic model was selected for simulation of daily streamflow because this model can incorporate the necessary physics while retaining comparative simplicity of operation. This model is applied to Youngdam basin to check the performance. The statistics between the historical and simulated streamflows were computed and compared. Also, the daily streamflow was simulated using SLURP model with input of the simulated daily precipitation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature data simulated by the downscaling and WGEN model for the purpose of examination hydrologic sensitivity under climate change (2CO₂). Under the condition of 2CO₂ climate change scenario, it was shown that the 7.6% of annual mean streamflow reduces when it is compared with the observed one. Seasonal streamflow is increased in winter and autumn, but reduced in summer. However, the observed annual cycle pattern was similar to the simulated pattern.
9. Development of longterm rainfall-runoff model for korean watershed
In this study, semi distributed longterm runoff simulation model named SWAT-K is developed considering the runoff features of Korea watersheds. Using the previous studies on the comparison of model structures and water budget analysis, the individual factors are integrated into the SWAT-K. The main accomplishments are as follow.
o The integration of urbanized effect module into SWAT
- Combination of SWAT-SWMM model
o The integration of distributed groundwater model
- Combination of SWAT-MODFLOW model
o The enhancement of longterm runoff model
- Water budget analysis in agricultural area
- Analysis of vegetation change in forests area
목차 Contents
- 표지 ... 1
- 제출문 ... 2
- 보고서 초록 ... 3
- 요약문 ... 4
- SUMMARY ... 14
- CONTENTS ... 24
- TABLE LIST ... 31
- FIGURE LIST ... 44
- 목차 ... 67
- 표목차 ... 73
- 그림목차 ... 85
- 제1장 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 106
- 제1절 연구의 필요성 ... 106
- 제2절 연구 목표 ... 107
- 제3절 연구 내용 ... 108
- 1. 장기 강우-유출 모형의 구조 비교 ... 111
- 2. 유역 물수지 해석 ... 112
- 3. 면적평균강우의 추정오차, 편의 및 산지효과의 정도 파악 ... 113
- 4. 실측에 근거한 증발산 추정식의 검정과 차세대 지면모형의 적용 ... 113
- 5. 국내 유역용 토양수분 예측모형 개발 ... 113
- 6. 저류시설물에 의한 장기 유출 변동성 및 신뢰도 분석 ... 114
- 7. 지하수 순환을 고려한 장기 유출 특성 해석 ... 114
- 8. 기후변화 및 변동에 따른 물순환구조의 변동해석 기술 개발 ... 115
- 9. 국내 유역에 적합한 장기 강우-유출 모형의 개발 ... 115
- 제4절 연구 추진 체계 ... 115
- 제2장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 118
- 제1절 장기 강우-유출 모형의 적용 ... 118
- 제2절 농업용수 이용에 따른 물이용구조 변화 해석기반 구축 ... 120
- 1. 국외 현황 ... 120
- 2. 국내 현황 ... 121
- 제3절 산림식생에 의한 수문학적 영향 평가 ... 123
- 1. 국외 현황 ... 123
- 2. 국내 현황 ... 124
- 제4절 도시화에 따른 유출거동의 특성 분석 ... 126
- 1. 국외 현황 ... 126
- 2. 국내 현황 ... 127
- 제5절 면적평균강우의 추정오차, 편의 및 산지효과의 정도 파악 ... 129
- 제6절 실측에 근거한 증발산 추정식의 검정과 차세대 지면모형의 적용 ... 132
- 제7절 국내 유역용 토양수분 예측모형의 개발 ... 134
- 1. 국외 현황 ... 134
- 2. 국내 현황 ... 134
- 제8절 저류시설물에 의한 장기 유출 변동성 및 신뢰도 분석 ... 140
- 1. 국외 현황 ... 140
- 2. 국내 현황 ... 140
- 제9절 지하수 순환을 고려한 장기 유출 특성 해석 ... 142
- 1. 국외 현황 ... 142
- 2. 국내 현황 ... 146
- 제10절 기후변화 및 변동에 따른 물순환구조의 변동해석 기술 개발 ... 150
- 1. 국외 현황 ... 150
- 2. 국내 현황 ... 152
- 제3장 연구개발수행 내용 및 결과 ... 156
- 제1절 장기 강우-유출 모형의 구조 비교 ... 156
- 1. 서론 ... 156
- 2. 장기 강우-유출 모형 선정 기준 ... 157
- 3. 장기 강우-유출 모형의 조사 및 선정 ... 160
- 4. 물공급전망의 작성 및 발간 ... 166
- 5. 요약 및 결론 ... 168
- 제2절 유역 물수지 해석 ... 169
- 1. 서론 ... 169
- 2. 장기 강우-유출 모형의 적용 ... 169
- 3. 농업용수 이용에 따른 물수지 변화 해석 ... 196
- 4. 식생 변화에 따른 유역 물수지 변화 해석 ... 239
- 5. 도시화에 따른 물수지 변화 해석 ... 253
- 6. 요약 및 결론 ... 272
- 제3절 면적평균강우의 추정오차, 편의 및 산지효과의 정도평가 ... 274
- 1. 서론 ... 274
- 2. 1차년 연구: 면적평균강우의 추정오차 및 편의 ... 277
- 3. 2차년 연구: 산지효과의 영향 파악 ... 289
- 4. 3차년 연구: 면적평균강우의 추정오차와 유출오차(장기유출해석의 경우) ... 303
- 제4절 실측에 근거한 증발산 추정식 검정과 차세대 지면모형의 적용 ... 329
- 1. 서론 ... 329
- 2. 배경이론 ... 331
- 3. 실제증발산의 관측 방법 및 관측 장소 ... 359
- 4. 증발산 추정 경험식의 국내적용결과 ... 363
- 5. 차세대 모형인 SiB2를 통한 증발산량의 추정 및 검증 ... 374
- 6. 대관령 지역에서의 증발산 추정 ... 399
- 7. 태국 TAK에서의 증발산 측정 및 모사 ... 408
- 8. 식물생태학적 모사를 위한 SiB2의 개선 방향 ... 417
- 제5절 국내 유역용 토양수분 예측모형의 개발 ... 420
- 1. 서론 ... 420
- 2. 토양 수분 예측 인자 고찰 ... 421
- 3. 수치고도 모형의 격자크기(Resolution) ... 441
- 4. 알고리즘의 적용 ... 442
- 제6절 저류시설물 및 수문요소에 의한 장기유출 신뢰도 분석 ... 538
- 1. 서론 ... 538
- 2. 저류시설물의 장기유출 영향 메케니즘 규명 ... 538
- 3. 적정 수문 모형의 선정 ... 557
- 4. 저류시설물 관련 프로그램 분석 및 개선 ... 558
- 5. SWAT 모형의 이론적 배경 ... 561
- 6. 적정 대상유역의 선정 및 모형의 구축 ... 582
- 7. 저류시설물의 장기유출에 대한 영향 분석 ... 599
- 제7절 지하수 순환을 고려한 장기유출특성 해석 ... 653
- 1. 서론 ... 653
- 2. 기저유출 분리 방법 ... 654
- 3. 지하수 함양량 산정 방법 ... 656
- 4. 기저유출 및 함양량 분석결과 ... 658
- 5. 지하수 저류량-기저유출 관계 분석 ... 685
- 6. 지표수-지하수 연계모형의 구축 ... 695
- 7. 지표수-지하수 연계모형의 민감도 분석 ... 731
- 8. 지표수-지하수 연계모형의 적용 및 비교 ... 739
- 9. 결론 및 요약 ... 765
- 제8절 기후변화 및 변동에 따른 물 순환 구조의 변동해석기술 개발 ... 767
- 1. 서론 ... 767
- 2. 기법의 조사 ... 767
- 3. 대상유역의 선정 및 자료의 수집 ... 782
- 4. 수문 기상자료의 변동성 및 경향 분석 ... 788
- 5. YONU GCM Tr7W12에 의한 기후모의와 기후변화 시나리오의 작성 ... 798
- 6. 축소기법의 개발과 유역규모 기후변화 시나리오의 작성 ... 818
- 7. 기후변화가 반영된 일 강수량 / 온도 모형의 개발 ... 830
- 8. 기후변화에 따른 강수변화 시나리오의 작성 및 비교 ... 837
- 9. 기후변화시 용담댐 유역의 지점 강수량 및 온도의 예측 ... 841
- 10. 예측 강수량 계열의 시계열 특성 분석 ... 844
- 11. 기후변화가 유역의 가뭄발생 특성에 미치는 영향 분석 ... 846
- 12. 강수-유출 모형의 선정 및 적용성 검토 ... 856
- 13. SLURP 모형을 이용한 기후변화(2CO₂)상황의 유출량 모의 ... 894
- 14. 기후변화가 용담댐 유역의 유출특성에 미치는 영향 ... 896
- 15. 기후변화가 용담댐 유역의 수자원에 미치는 영향 ... 904
- 16. 결론 ... 915
- 제9절 국내 유역에 적합한 장기 강우-유출 모형의 개발 ... 919
- 1. 서론 ... 919
- 2. 모형의 구조 ... 920
- 3. SWAT-MODFLOW 결합 모형의 개발 ... 966
- 4. SWAT-SWMM 결합 모형 ... 996
- 5. SWAT-AGRIMAN 모형의 개발 ... 1048
- 6. 산림 식생생장 알고리즘 수정 ... 1075
- 7. 요약 및 결론 ... 1091
- 제4장 목표달성도 및 관련분야에의 기여도 ... 1093
- 제1절 장기 강우-유출 모형의 구조 비교 ... 1093
- 제2절 유역 물수지 해석 ... 1094
- 제3절 면적평균강우의 추정오차, 편의 및 산지효과의 정도파악 ... 1095
- 제4절 실측에 근거한 증발산 추정식의 검정과 차세대 지면모형의 적용 ... 1097
- 제5절 국내 유역용 토양수분예측모형개발 ... 1098
- 제6절 저류시설물에 의한 장기 유출 변동성 및 신뢰도 분석 ... 1099
- 제7절 지하수 순환을 고려한 장기 유출 특성 해석 ... 1099
- 제8절 기후변화 및 변동에 따른 물순환구조의 변동해석 기술 개발 ... 1101
- 제9절 국내 유역에 적합한 장기 강우-유출 모형의 개발 ... 1102
- 제5장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 1103
- 제1절 장기 강우-유출 모형의 구조 비교 ... 1103
- 제2절 유역 물수지 해석 ... 1103
- 제3절 면적평균강우의 추정오차, 편의 및 산지효과의 정도 파악 ... 1103
- 제4절 실측에 근거한 증발산 추정식의 검정과 차세대 지면모형의 적용 ... 1104
- 제5절 국내 유역용 토양수분예측모형개발 ... 1104
- 제6절 저류시설물에 의한 장기 유출 변동성 및 신뢰도 분석 ... 1105
- 제7절 지하수 순환을 고려한 장기 유출 특성 해석 ... 1105
- 제8절 기후변화 및 변동에 따른 물순환구조의 변동해석 기술 개발 ... 1106
- 제9절 국내 유역에 적합한 장기 강우-유출 모형의 개발 ... 1106
- 제6장 연구개발과정에서 수집한 해외과학기술정보 ... 1107
- 1. 국제 전문 학술지 검색을 통한 문헌 수집 ... 1107
- 2. 인터넷을 통한 기술보고서 및 적용사례 등의 자료 수집 ... 1108
- 3. 해외 연구기관 교류를 통한 국제 공동연구의 추진 ... 1109
- 제7장 참고문헌 ... 1111
- 부록 A 수문모형별 구조 ... 1146
- 끝페이지 ... 1164
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