초록 ▼

개발결과요약

연차목표
○ 신속 지진동 표출 기반 구축
○ 시설물 가속도 예측 가능 특성 도출
○ 지진모델 발생기 성능 개선 및 지진배경잡음 활용 지진동 예측
○ 지반지진공학 특성 정량화기반 지진재해 평가
○ 파형유사성 기반 군집 발생 지진군 정량분석

개발내용 및 결과
○ 신속 지진동 표출 기반 구축
- 지자체 QSCD20 기반 지진동 표출
- 지반 증폭 특성을 반영한 예측 지진동 진도도 표출
○ 시설물 가속도 예측 가능 특성 도출
- KTX 지진감지 시스

개발결과요약

연차목표
○ 신속 지진동 표출 기반 구축
○ 시설물 가속도 예측 가능 특성 도출
○ 지진모델 발생기 성능 개선 및 지진배경잡음 활용 지진동 예측
○ 지반지진공학 특성 정량화기반 지진재해 평가
○ 파형유사성 기반 군집 발생 지진군 정량분석

개발내용 및 결과
○ 신속 지진동 표출 기반 구축
- 지자체 QSCD20 기반 지진동 표출
- 지반 증폭 특성을 반영한 예측 지진동 진도도 표출
○ 시설물 가속도 예측 가능 특성 도출
- KTX 지진감지 시스템 모니터링 모듈 확장
- 고속철도 가속도 파라미터 공유 체계 구축 및 분석 체계 설계
○ 지진모델 발생기 성능 개선 및 지진배경잡음 활용 지진동 예측
- 국제 공동연구를 통한 지진모델발생기 성능 검증 및 개선
- 지진배경잡음 상호상관분석 활용 강지진동 모사 기반기술 검증
○ 지반지진공학 특성 정량화기반 지진재해 평가
- 지역고유 부지 지진응답 효율적 평가 기법 도출 및 적용
- 한반도 중서부 대상지역 부지 지진응답 정보 예측 구현
- 복합지진지반재해 특성연계 건축물 지진안전성 평가 전문가시스템 개발 및 시범적용
○ 파형유사성 기반 군집 발생 지진군 정량분석
- 옹진(북한), 익산, 금산 지진 대상 유사파형 이벤트군 정의
- 경주지진 유사파형 이벤트군 정의 및 진원재결정

기대효과
○ 지진조기경보 기술의 효율성 및 신뢰성 향상
- 조기분석 시간에 대한 로그를 데이터베이스화하고 시각화함으로써 분석 결과 비교 및 성능 평가에 대한 직관적 접근을 가능하도록 하여 조기경보시스템 운영 효율과 관측결과 분석의 신뢰성을 향상시킴
○ 강지진동 모사를 위한 물리적 지진모델링 원천 기술 확보
- 물리적 지진모델링 기반 강지진동 예측 시스템 구축 연구의 필수 요소 중 하나인 지진모델발생기 독자 모델을 구축하고 국제 공동연구를 통해서 성능 검증을 완료함으로써 이 분야원천기술 확보 및 고도화된 지진재해 평가, 지진 공학적 활용 가능
○ 강지진동 특성 파악을 통한 지진재해 평가 자료 확보
- 한반도와 같은 중약진 지역에서 수집가능한 자료인 지진배경잡음을 활용하는 강지진동 모사의 기반기술을 구현하고 지반침하 이벤트 대상 분석결과 검증을 통해 기반기술을 확보함으로써 강지진동 특성 파악을 통한 내진설계 등 주요 산업시설 지진 내구성 강화 및 지진재해 경감에 기여 가능
○ 시설물 지진안전성평가를 통한 실효적 지진대책 기술지원
- 한반도 중서부 시범 시설영역의 지진가속도 계측시스템을 활용한 지진유발 복합지반재해 및 안전성 평가 전문가 시스템을 개발, 예비적용 및 검증으로 시설물의 정량적 지진피해파악 및 지진대책 수립을 위한 의사결정 지원 가능

적용분야
○ 지진조기경보 기술의 현장 적용 및 활용
- 국내 지진관련 부처, 시설물관리 공기업, 지방자체단체 등에서 지진원 및 지진재해 특성 정보의 실효적 지진재해 대책 토대 정보 및 프레임으로 활용
- 국가적 수요 대상으로서의 지진원 평가 및 지진재해 예측 기술들의 특허 출원 등록과 이에 근거한 민간기업과 공공기관에 2회/년 이상 기술이전 가능
- 지진조기경보 파라미터 처리 및 지반진동 기반 조기경보 체계 기술의 정량적 특허 성과 창출 토대의 개발 적용을 통해 고속철도 대상 지진대응시스템 구축에 적용
○ 발생 가능 지진에 대한 전주기적 대응
- 지진원 재결정 분석 및 단층해 계산 기법은 발생 지진에 대한 즉각적 적용 가능, 미래 발생 가능한 강지진동의 동역학적 모사를 이용하여 지진재해의 실질적 피해 경감
- 한반도 지반지질 특성에 관한 지진공학적 매개지표의 범용공간정보 구축 및 활용 기술은 국내 지역 지진 및 지반환경에 적합한 지진신속대응 수립과 기본적 내진설계 방법에 적용 가능
○ 국내 발생 지진에 대한 실증적 연구
- 금년 7월에 발생한 울산 해역 지진(규모 5.0) 시에 지진조기경보 체계의 탐지 능력 검증
- 금년 9월에 발생한 경주 지진(규모 5.8) 시에 지진조기분석체계의 안정성과 성능을 입증했으며, 지진 자료에 대해 단층해 계산, 정밀 진원재결정, 지진피해 공간 분석 등의 개발 기술을 우선 적용하여 분석함
- 경주 지진 분석 및 연구 결과는 관련 학회 및 전문가 그룹과의 발표, 대국민 포럼, 강연 교육 등을 통해 공유되고 있으며 일부는 매스컴을 통해 발표됨

Abstract ▼

At this present on end of 2016, more accurate seismic data were managed via KISS(Korea Integrated Seismic System) from more than 210 stations and acceleration data were collected into Integrated management system of acceleration data on MPSS(Ministry of Public Safety and Security) from more than 600

At this present on end of 2016, more accurate seismic data were managed via KISS(Korea Integrated Seismic System) from more than 210 stations and acceleration data were collected into Integrated management system of acceleration data on MPSS(Ministry of Public Safety and Security) from more than 600 sites. In this study a robust framework for integrating seismic data from not only KISS but also national acceleration station network were tested. Based on this framework we tested a shake map using PGA were considered site amplification factor as an instrumental intensity. To establish a rapid response system for KTX(Korea Train eXpress) from earthquake a preliminary research were performed. In this study a collect system of EEP(Earthquake Early waring Parameter) was designed. EEPP(EEP Pool) collect various parameter which were used on earthquake early warnig system from stations along the railway. Also to assist local government KISStool-LG(KISStool for Local Government) for supporting collection, monitoring, management and distribution of acceleration data from seismic stations were installed around local government’s main facilities were developed.

Ground motion prediction is a critical element in seismic hazard analysis.Physics-based ground motion simulation has become a popular and feasible approach in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment, given advanced technologies about earthquake rupture and wave propagation modeling and rapidly evolving computing capability. In the physics-based ground motion simulation, it is important to derive physically self-consistent earthquake rupture models and to quantify their variability for a possible range of earthquake scenarios that may occur in the future. In this project,we have derived a rupture model generator based on 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters, which are constrained by a number of dynamic rupture models. The developed rupture model generator was tested in an objective sense by collaborating with the broadband platform project team supported by the southern california earthquake center (SCEC). Our earthquake rupture modeling scheme for physics-based ground motion simulation has been fully validated following their guidelines and now successfully implemented at the SCEC broadband platform as an independent module. We expect that this international multi-disciplinary project will enable us to develop a cutting-edge physics-based ground motion simulation platform and to apply it to understanding the characteristics of strong ground motions in the Korean peninsula.

The ground motion also can be predicted by seismic ambient noise correlation analysis. Using a limestone mine induced event, this study demonstrated that both the phase and amplitude information of the empirical Green’s functions can be retrieved using seismic ambient noise correlation analysis. Three different approaches of correlation analysis with numerical stabilization are tested: deconvolution, coherency, and cross-correlation. The deconvolution based one is the best method to retrieve phase and amplitude information of ground motion between station pairs. This result suggests that we can account for complex three dimensional wave propagation effects more efficiently, at least in the long period range, by extracting empirical Green’s functions from seismic ambient noise data, even in low seismic activity regions.

Travel time tomography is widely used to derive crustal velocity structure. Generally travel time tomography uses first arrival time. This method gives the rough result of velocity structure. To enhance the accuracy of crustal velocity structure, several phases of direct wave and refracted wave etc could be combined additionally. Using several phases can resolve the velocity structure highly. To solve the forward problem of calculating two phases such as direct wave and first arrival wave, ray tracing code to calculate first arrival time was modified with Lo and Harris’s direct wave travel time calculation algorithm. The travel tomography using fresnel volume was applied to solve the velocity structure without tracking ray path. This inversion was tested with synthetic model. Also, travel time tomography using ray path was used to the region of the korea peninsula to derive P-wave velocity structure preliminarily. In the near future, Travel time tomography method projecting ray path to fresnel volume will be developed to reduce null space of model and enhance the ray coverage.

The number of earthquake events keeps increasing every year, and the recent cases of Gyeongju earthquake hazards invoke the necessity of seismic study in Korea, as geotechnical earthquake hazards, such as strong ground motion, liquefaction and landslides, are a significant threat to structures in the epicenter and downtown areas in Korea. To spatially predict geotechnical seismic characteristics across an area of interest, existing borehole drilling data in and near the area can be efficiently used as a basic resource, and geotechnical expert knowledge can also be used to enhance prediction reliability. Above all, on the basis of a geotechnical information system framework, the advanced geostatistical assessment for the regional zonation of seismic site effects should be developed considering topographical and geostatistical characteristics corresponding to the site effects criterion. Thus, the newly geo-proxy frame based on geometrical site classification was proposed according to the correlations between the site parameters (or site coefficients) and geometric factors using geo-spatial datasets of Seoul area. The proxy-based site classification was also established and properly re-classified depending on the conventional site classification criteria. And the validation test of the empirical approach was preferentially performed for the large-scale metropolis area (Incheon and Bucheon) at the midwest of the Korean Peninsula. Previously, the geo-spatial datasets at the target areas were constructed and spatial information of site effects was estimated. And the dual-phased spatial zonation based on the conventional and geo-poxy site classification was constructed and visualized.

In accordance with the advanced geotechnical information system to evaluate the, systemized framework of integrated assessment of earthquake-induced geotechnical hazard was established using advanced geo-spatial database and by real-time transmission of acceleration data.Additionally, the prototype of decision making system for earthquake hazard assessemnt was developed. Specifically, the normalized correlations between rock-outcrop accelerations and the maximum accelerations of each grid were determined considering the site-specific seismic response characteristics using multiple artificial neural network. And a visible simulation of the framework was specifically conducted at plot-test area in Incheon. In occurrence of the Gyeongju earthquake, the real-time simulation of the prototype was performed. The potential damage due to liquefaction and site effects, and structural fragility evaluation was estimated by combining the geospatial-grid and accelerations correlation grid. As the dual cross-check, the acceleration-based structural safety parameter was derived and applied for rapid evaluation of seismic performance.

Based on waveform similarity, we analyzed events in and around the Korean Peninsula. From 83 events that occurred around the Ongjin Peninsula of North Korea in Dec 2013 to April, we succeeded to identify waveform of blasts generated by building a dyke for land reclamation. For the Iksan earthquake (M_L 4.3) in the central part of the Korean Peninsula, one foreshocks and six aftershocks were newly detected from continuous waveform for 25 days by using cross-correlation. Seismic events of 191 around the epicenter of the Geumsan earthquake (M_L 3.5) were also classified by hierarchical clustering for waveform similarity. We concluded that the 87 % of the seismic events could be considered as blats from the quarry located around the epicenter of Geumsan earthquake. For the Boryeong offshore earthquake sequence, we used correlation between a time-lag vector and a vector for inter-events distances to verify relocation results. We proposed that the Boryeong sequence comprise four segments in spatial after classifying waveforms, and specified the segment that could occur the largest event (M_L 3.8) in the Boryeong sequence.

The greatest earthquake occurred in korea after starting to record the earthquake event with instrument recording hit Gyeongju city in September 12, 2016. This event caused the great damage of the roofs of the korean traditional houses made of ceramic roof tile but did’t cause the structural damage of the houses and buildings because characteristics of this event is to exert the ground motion with strong high frequency amplitude. The moment tensor inversion of this event represents the strike slip of the fault with dip of 70° and strike of NNE 24°, rake of 180°. results of moment tensor inversion for big foreshock and several great aftershocks show the similar fault solutions. These fault solutions were matched with the direction of distribution of relocations of aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters roughly follow the NNE-SSW strike of the mainshock (ML 5.8), and the epicentral zone extends to ~5 km. All of the hypocenters locate to the west of the NNE-trending Yangsan fault system that has experienced right-lateral strike-slip deformation. Most of the events occurred between 12 and 16 km depth, dipping towards ENE with over 70°. We deduced the spatio-temporal evolution of the foreshock-mainshock sequence and aftershocks that occurred within 12 hours after the mainshock, and defined three clusters of hypocenters implying asperities on inferred fault plane after the hierarchical clustering for waveform similarity. Additionally, the urgency on-site survey was conducted considering site effect zonation map to identify the correlations between damage status and site response characteristics.

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1제 출 문 ... 3최종보고서 요약서 ... 5요 약 문 ... 9SUMMARY ... 13CONTENTS ... 17목차 ... 19표목차 ... 23그림목차 ... 25제 1 장 연구개발 과제의 개요 ... 31제 2 장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 34제 3 장 연구개발수행 내용 및 결과 ... 37 제 1 절 지진 통합 인프라 구축 및 활용 기술 개발 ... 37 1. 지진자료 통합 기술 개발 ... 37 2. 지진분석 활용 기술 개발 ... 48 제 2 절 지진 지반운동 예측기술 개발 및 지진원 정밀 분석 ... 56 1. 강지진동 시뮬레이션 기술 개발 ... 56 2. 지반지진공학 특성 정량화기반 지진재해 평가 ... 84 3. 군집발생 유사파형 지진군 정량분석 ... 132 제 3 절 경주지진 발생 특성 예비 분석 ... 146 1. 지진원 특성 규명을 위한 경주지진 단층해 계산 및 진원재결정 ... 146 2. 경주지진 진앙인근 지역 부지응답정보 연계 지진피해 공간분석 ... 159제 4 장 목표달성도 및 관련분야에의 기여도 ... 163제 5 장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 166제 6 장 연구개발과정에서 수집한 해외과학기술정보 ... 169제 7 장 참고문헌 ... 171끝페이지 ... 180