초록 ▼

◦ 연구목적 및 필요성
- 목적: 과거와 현재 기후변화 복원, 관측을 통한 극지 기후변화 정량화와 관측 자료 기반 수치적 재현을 통한 기후변화 메커니즘 규명
- 필요성: 급격한 온난화가 일어나고 있는 극지역의 기후변화를 이해하기 위해 빙하 프록시 자료, 현재기후요소 관측, 수치모델링을 통한 극지기후요소, 메커니즘 및 상호작용에 대한 이해가 필요함

◦ 주요연구내용 및 범위
- 그린란드 NEEM과 남극 빅토리아랜드의 빙하코어에서 고해상도 기후변동 멀티 프록시 자료 복원을 통한 과거의 극지기후 변동성 정도 파

◦ 연구목적 및 필요성
- 목적: 과거와 현재 기후변화 복원, 관측을 통한 극지 기후변화 정량화와 관측 자료 기반 수치적 재현을 통한 기후변화 메커니즘 규명
- 필요성: 급격한 온난화가 일어나고 있는 극지역의 기후변화를 이해하기 위해 빙하 프록시 자료, 현재기후요소 관측, 수치모델링을 통한 극지기후요소, 메커니즘 및 상호작용에 대한 이해가 필요함

◦ 주요연구내용 및 범위
- 그린란드 NEEM과 남극 빅토리아랜드의 빙하코어에서 고해상도 기후변동 멀티 프록시 자료 복원을 통한 과거의 극지기후 변동성 정도 파악
- 남극내륙에서 500m 중부빙하코어 시추를 위한 한국 주도형 국제빙하시추프로그램 개발 및 장보고 기지 인근에서 독자적인 100m 천부빙하코어 시추
- 극지역 대기-해빙-해양 에너지 교환 및 대기경계층 특성 현장 관측
- 북극 해빙의 중장기 변화 메커니즘 규명을 위한 현장 관측
- 전구 및 지역 기후모델을 이용한 양극의 기후변화 조절 메커니즘 파악
- 극진동-성층권 돌연승온과 극지고층대기 변화 메커니즘 규명

◦ 연구개발 결과
- 그린란드 NEEM, 남극 GV7 및 장보고기지의 빙하코어의 기후환경변화 기록 복원
- 한국주도형 남극 500미터급 국제공동 빙하시추 프로그램 개발
- 동서남극의 기후편차 평가 및 동남극 대류권 기상 및 대기과정 이해
- 저층대기 물리특성과 기후 상관성 파악 및 북극해 대기-해빙-해양 에너지 교환 분석
- 해빙, 극진동, 열대-극지 원격상관 등의 분석을 통한 양극 기후변화 메커니즘 제시
- 해빙모델 모수화 개선 기반 확립 및 양극해빙의 시공간 변화 패턴 관련 대기순환 모델링
- 극지 구름 특성의 변화에 따른 극지 기후변화 재현
- 성층권 돌연승온 발생 패턴에 따른 대류권-성층권 상호작용 메커니즘

◦ 연구개발결과의 활용계획
- 복원된 빙하코어 기록을 통한 고기후·고환경 변화 이해에 활용
- 연대측정법, 기온-물안정 동위원소 상관관계 규명 등에 활용
- 남극 대기구성물질 변화의 기후변화 피드백 효과를 정량적 규명하여 기후변동 예측성 향상에 활용
- 남극기지와 린지섬 관측 기후요소자료를 동서남극 기후편차 이해를 위한 기초자료로 활용
- 북극 대기경계층 열속 모수화 개발을 통한 기후모델의 북극기후 모의 성능 검증 및 개선에 활용
- 북극 해빙면적과 패턴을 활용, 겨울철 계절예보 정확성 향상에 활용
- 극진동 미래변화 전망을 통해 기후변화에 따른 지역별 이상기후 발생과 영향 평가에 활용
- 해빙예측모델의 성능 개선 방향에 대한 경험적 기반으로 활용
- 남극 기상현상 예측능력 향상 및 지역별 기상특성 분석 연구에 활용

(출처:보고서 초록)

Abstract ▼

3. Outcome of the study

(1) Reconstruction of Past Climate Change and Ice Coring

◦ Reconstruction of East Antarctic GV7 snow pit and ice core records
- Age dating of GV7 ice core
∙ 78.4 m long ice core was dated by combining methods of counting annual layers from water stable is

3. Outcome of the study

(1) Reconstruction of Past Climate Change and Ice Coring

◦ Reconstruction of East Antarctic GV7 snow pit and ice core records
- Age dating of GV7 ice core
∙ 78.4 m long ice core was dated by combining methods of counting annual layers from water stable isotope ratios and identification of large volcanic events using high electric conductivity due to inputs of ions from large volcanic eruptions.
∙ The bottom of the ice core dated back to AD 1785.
∙ The age dating results from Korea Polar Research Institute are in good agreement with that from Italy in error range representing authenticity of age of GV7 ice core.
- Seasonal changes in aerosols recovered from GV7 snow pit samples
∙ Concentrations of ion species related to sea-salt such as Na⁺,Cl^- and Mg²⁺ generally increased during winter season, meanwhile those of MSA and non sea salt SO₄^2- known to originate from marine plankton increased during summer season probably due to decrease in sea ice extent
∙ The increase of dust concentration during the spring season and the maxima during summer may be related to transport of mineral dust from ice-free areas of the Trans Antarctic mountains by air masses traveling from the Ross Sea to GV7
∙ On the other hand, during winter air masses reaching GV7. mainly derived from the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, thus brining clean air masses to the site.
∙ The seasonal changes in concentrations of trace metals such as Mn, Sc and V were similar to that of Al representing crust dust was dominant source for those elements, while those of As, Zn and Sr implied that contributions from anthropogenic sources (As, Zn) and sea salt (Sr) were relatively significant for these elements.

◦ Reconstruction of snow pit and ice core records of Styx glacier near to Antarctic Jang Bogo station
- Age dating of Styx glacier ice core
∙ The electric conductivity record of Styx glacier ice core presented large volcanic eruptions such as Tambora (1885), Kuwae (1451) and El Chichon (1257) which could be used as reference age.
∙ Upper 27 m of Styx glacier ice core was dated 80 years by counting of annual signals of water stable isotope ratios and application of Herron-Langway model.
- Changes in aerosol recovered from snow pit and ice core samples of Styx glacier ice core
∙ The concentrations of MSA were high at the early 1990s and then decreased rapidly. MSA concentrations showed no trend from the mid 1990s to the mid 2000s, and then steadily increased to the present.
∙ MSA concentrations are highly correlated with sea ice extent for spring, fall and winter during 1995~2008.
∙ Dust concentrations in snow pit samples showed weak correlation with water stable isotope ratios impling increase in atmospheric dust during summer.
∙ Trace metals related to volcanic eruption display high crustal enrichment factors (EFc) of prior to warm years representing possibility of volcanic activity influence on climate change over this area.

◦ Intermediate ice core drilling program
- GV7 ice core drilling
∙ One intermediate ice core (250 m), two shallow ice cores (88, 80 m) and five firn cores (5~50 m) were drilled Northern Victoria Land, East Antarctica through Korea-Italy collaborative research project during 2013/14.
- Styx glacier ice core drilling
∙ As a preliminary research of development of intermediate ice core drilling program, 210.5 m deep ice core was recovered from Styx glacier near to Antarctic Jang Bogo station in 2014/15.
- Hercules Neve ice sheet ice core drilling
∙ For the selection of proposed site for intermediated ice core drilling, geophysical survey and shallow ice core (80 m) drilling were performed at Hercules Neve ice sheet located in 150 km north of Antarctic Jang Bogo station in 2015/16.

◦ Reconstruction of Greenland NEEM snow pit and ice core records
- Seasonal changes of aerosols recorded in snow pit samples
∙ The seasonal changes in atmospheric dust in Greenland NEEM snow pit samples together with air mass back trajectories calculation represented that they mainly originated from arid regions in Asia and long range transported into Greenland
∙ The increases in Se concentrations during winter and spring and high EFc values over whole year implied that atmospheric Se in Greenland were significantly influenced by anthropogenic emissions from coal combustion in Asia
- Trace metals in Greenland ice core
∙ The first centennial ice record of As and V recovered from Greenland NEEM shallow ice core presented significant anthropogenic influences from North America and Europeon those elements in hemispheric scale as well as Cd and Pb
∙ According to the records of trace metals of Greenland deep ice core, atmospheric trace metals such as Al, As, Ba, Co, Mn, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sr, Th, U and V were dominantly controlled by changes in atmospheric input of crust dust from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to the Early Holocene
∙ Atmospheric fluxes of Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb and Zn increased from LGM to the Early Holocene probably due to intensified volcanic activities, while those of Cd and Se were additionally influenced by increased bio-activities.

(2) Observation and Quantification of Polar Climate Elements

◦ Understanding the east-west contrast of Antarctic climate variability
- Quantification of meteorological variables of Antarctica
∙ Year-round measurement of meteorological variables at King Sejong Station(KSS) with high quality during 2014-2016 with annual mean air temperatures of -1.9, -2.3, -1.1℃, respectively. A weak cooling trend was found from 1988-2016 annual air temperature record
∙ Wind speed at KSS is usually strong, with highest gust of 51.9 m/s in July 2014 and 49.1 m/s in 2015. It seems that wind gust occurence over 40 m/s increases since 2010s.
∙ Global solar radiation of KSS shows less than 50 MJ/㎡ in monthly total sense during winter (May to July) while recording over 300 MJ/㎡ from November to February
∙ Heat flux measured at KSS shows vivid diurnal variation if wind is from land in summer with maximum of about 200 W/㎡. With on-shore wind condition, weak upward heat flux is usually observed. Otherwise, sensible heat flux is very small with no distict diurnal variation.
- Analysis of characteristics of meteorology and atmospheric processes over east-Antarctica
∙ Sensible heat flux at Jang Bogo station shows upward heat flux during summer (i.e. Nov-Jan) while small downward flux otherwise
∙ In winter, stable condition occured more than 40% and unstable condtion occurred about 20%
∙ Upper-air sounding had been carried out from February to October at the Jang Bogo station
∙ During summer-time, unstable mixed layer with 500 depth was observed, and advection of warm on-shore wind below 100 m a.s.l. was often observed.

◦ Observation of physical characteristic in low atmosphere and Understanding interrelation with polar climate
- Observation of physical characteristics of aerosol particles
∙ Analysis of physical characteristics of aerosol particles from March 2009 to February 2015 at the King Sejong Station
∙ Using various instruments for investigating physical characteristics of aerosol particles
∙ Comparison with physical characteristics of aerosol particles according to the orgin and transport pathway of air masses
∙ Observation of highest concentration of CN_2.5 and CN₁₀ during austral summer (DJF) and of lowest concentrations of CN_2.5 and CN₁₀ during austral winter (JJA)
∙ Clear seasonality of CCN concentrations was observed similar to trend of CN concentrations
∙ No clear seasonal trends of BC concentrations was observed
∙ Higher BC concentrations at the King Sejong Station than those at the Jabogo Station
∙ Observation of higher CN2.5 concentrations of aerosol particles originated from ocean than those originated form continent
- Linkage between nucleation mode particles and marine biota in remote Antarctic environment
∙ Clear seasonality of the number concentration of nucleation mode particles (3-10 nm in diameter) was observed at the King Sejong Station
∙ Clear seasonality of the number concentration of nucleation mode particles (3-10 nm in diameter) was observed at the King Sejong Station
∙ Comparison between observed nucleation mode particles and satellite derived primary productivities and aerosol optic thickness indicates that two basin (including South Pacific Ocean and South Atlantic Ocean) near KSJ show different characteristic in terms of emission of aerosol precursor.

◦ Energy exchanges between the Arctic atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean
- KOPRI scientists joined N-ICE2015 cruise from January to March 2015 to carry out upper-air sounding, weather observation, flux measurement etc.
- Inversion layer over Arctic sea-ice was usually 500-1000 m depth and the inverstion strength was between +1.2℃/100m to +2.0℃/100m
- Especially in lowest 1-m layer, vertical temperature gradient was shown to be 56℃/100m which is more than 50-times of the value in troposphere of the standard atmosphere
- Observed sensible heat flux showed small downward heat flux during wintertime mostly balancing radiative cooling of the sea ice surface
- Comparison of the observed heat flux with simulated values by numerical model revealed that downward heat flux is 1.5-times overestimated by model in many cases with some cases of underestimation in windy conditions

(출처:SUMMARY)

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1제 출 문 ... 2보고서 초록 ... 3요 약 문 ... 5SUMMARY ... 25CONTENTS ... 40목차 ... 41제 1 장 서론 ... 42 1.1 배경 및 필요성 ... 44 1.2 목적 및 연구 범위 ... 49제 2 장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 55 2.1 국내 기술개발 현황 ... 57 2.2 국외 기술개발 현황 ... 61제 3 장 연구개발 수행내용 및 결과 ... 66 3.1 과거 기후변화 자료 복원 및 빙하시추 ... 68 3.2 극지역 기후요소 관측 및 정량화 연구 ... 255 3.3 관측 자료 활용, 수치적 재현을 통한 극지 기후변화 메커니즘 규명 ... 365제 4 장 연구개발 목표 달성도 및 대외 기여도 ... 548 4.1 총괄 목표 달성 내용 ... 550 4.2 연차별 목표 달성 내용 ... 551제 5 장 기술개발 결과 활용계획 ... 556제 6 장 연구개발 과정에서 수집한 해외과학기술 정보 ... 563제 7 장 참고문헌 ... 568끝페이지 ... 601