초록 ▼

○ 연구목표
- 글로벌 기상재해(한파/폭염 등) 원인으로 지목된 북극 소용돌이의 강도 및 진행 경로에 대한 예측기술 개발을 통해 극지역 기후변화에 따른 기상재해 예측능력을 확보한다.

○ 연구내용
- (관측) 북극 구름/경계층 관측 및 활용 연구
ㆍ니알슨/아라온 기반 북극 육/해상 구름-대기경계층 관측 인프라 구축 및 지속운영
ㆍ독자 경계층/구름미세물리 프로세스 개발
ㆍ에어로졸/구름 상호작용
- (예측) 극지 예측 시스템 (KPOPS) 개발 및 운용
ㆍ극지 기상/기후 예측 시스템 개발

○ 연구목표
- 글로벌 기상재해(한파/폭염 등) 원인으로 지목된 북극 소용돌이의 강도 및 진행 경로에 대한 예측기술 개발을 통해 극지역 기후변화에 따른 기상재해 예측능력을 확보한다.

○ 연구내용
- (관측) 북극 구름/경계층 관측 및 활용 연구
ㆍ니알슨/아라온 기반 북극 육/해상 구름-대기경계층 관측 인프라 구축 및 지속운영
ㆍ독자 경계층/구름미세물리 프로세스 개발
ㆍ에어로졸/구름 상호작용
- (예측) 극지 예측 시스템 (KPOPS) 개발 및 운용
ㆍ극지 기상/기후 예측 시스템 개발, 준현업 운영
ㆍ독자 물리과정 탑재, 예측성 향상
ㆍ2017-2019 극지 예측의 해 (YOPP) KOPRI 주도적 참여
ㆍ극지 기후 예측 시스템 초기화/검증 체계 구축
- (후처리 및 분석) KPOPS 활용 플랫폼 구축 및 글로벌-한반도 이상기후 원인 진단
ㆍ모델/원격탐사/현장관측 자료 활용 플랫폼 운용
ㆍ중위도-극지 이상기후 원인규명

○ 예상 연구성과
- 니알슨 (다산기지) 중심 구름 및 기상 관측 핵심역량 확보
- 아라온 해상 기상관측 역량 확보
- KOPRI 자체 극지역 악기상 및 중위도 계절예측 능력 확보
- 글로벌 기상재해 원인 규명에 관한 우수 극지논문 출판

○ 종료후 활용계획
- 극지 지구 시스템 모델 (KPOPS-Earth) 개발의 기반기술로 활용
- 아라온 남/북극해 항해시 선박 안전 운항에 필요한 기초자료로 활용
- 기상청과 지속적 협력, 국가 기후변화/기상재해 예측능력 질적 수준 향상
- 현장관측 및 모델 자료 공유, 국내 극지 공동연구 활성화에 기여

(출처 : 초록 5p)

Abstract ▼

IV. R&D Results
(1) Arctic cloud/boundary layer observations and applications
○ Construction of land-based observation system at Ny-Alesund, Arctic
- Preparation of the land-based observation system through international cooperation
∙Throughout 2015 and 2016, KOPRI consulted with the rel

IV. R&D Results
(1) Arctic cloud/boundary layer observations and applications
○ Construction of land-based observation system at Ny-Alesund, Arctic
- Preparation of the land-based observation system through international cooperation
∙Throughout 2015 and 2016, KOPRI consulted with the relevant atmospheric scientists of Ny-Alesund to prepare the optimal research area, site, and action plan
∙KOPRI planned providing power and communication for the Doppler wind lidar and cloud particle sensors to be installed at Ny-Alesund with Italian and Norwegian research team
- Establishment of the observation system at Ny-Alesund
∙In April 2017, the wind lidar was installed near the Climate Change Tower in cooperation with the German and Italian research teams, and the cloud sensor was installed at the Zeppelin Observatory in September 2017 in cooperation with the Swedish and Norwegian research teams to acquire data throughout the year
∙Doppler wind lidar, in conjunction with the Italian CCT tower and SODAR, implements a seamless wind observation system from the ground up to 1 km enabling data sharing and collaborative research
∙The cloud particle sensor is used to study the cloud-aerosol interaction with the Swedish team by observing the low-level cloud microphysics at the Zeppelin Observatory throughout the year
- Data acquisition through continuous operation of Ny-Alesund land observation network
∙During the research period, the equipments were maintained by on-site activities, and as of December 2019, wind data was obtained for 3 years and cloud droplet data for more than 2 years
∙In the spring and fall of 2019, the cloud sensor of KOPRI and the Italian tether balloon were combined to put the cloud sensor into the cloud over Ny-Alesund, achieving direct observation of microphysical properties within the cloud

○ Relationships between cloud, radiative flux and surface temperature over the Ny-Alesund, Arctic
- Analysis of correlation between cloud, radiation, and surface air temperature in winter
∙Using 10-year observation data of Ny-Alesund, we analyzed the variability of cloud, radiation, and air temperature thus evaluated the effects of regional-scale atmospheric circulation on cloud cover, longwave radiation, and temperature
∙The correlation analysis of the monthly average longwave radiation and temperature revealed that the net longwave radiation affects the temperature increase
∙On a scale of several days, cold or warm advection can cause rapid changes in temperature, cloudiness, and longwave radiation. And the duration of low level cloud condition is short to offset the temperature change caused by advection

○ Construction of ship-borne Arctic upper-air and cloud observations
- Establishment of the meteorological observation system on the Araon
∙Reinforcing the upper-air observation by regular radiosonde balloon launches during the Arctic cruise
∙Monitoring of sky conditions by the all-sky camera and operating the LIDAR equipment for cloud/aerosol detection to establish the ship-borne cloud monitoring network with radiosonde

○ Late-summer relationship between radiative flux and surface air temperature in the Arctic Ocean
- Successful synthetic atmospheric observations during the 2018 Arctic cruise
∙Analysis on the relationship between cloud radiation effect, surface temperature, and sea ice concentration using acquired data
∙Estimating cloud bottom temperature by combining observations of LIDAR cloud base height and radiosonde temperature profile. The altitude below the cloud appeared close to the surface when it was cold and increased when it was warm
∙ Although the positive linear relationship between the longwave radiation controlled by the cloud, the presence of warm and sunny days significantly weakens the relationship

○ Impact of the UNICON scheme on the KPOPS
- Effect of detrained cumulus parameterization
∙The new physics parameterization scheme that simulates the detrainment process in cumulus convection was developed by using a unified convection scheme
∙The detrained cumulus parameterization has improved the global performance of shortwave cloud radiative forcing, especially by the stratified cloud
∙The CAM5 unified convection scheme with the detrained cumulus parameterization simulates well the marine stratocumulus resembling downstream extension of the observed marine stratocumulus
- Poleward heat transport impacts on Arctic clouds and climate simulation
∙GCMs suffer from cold bias over the Arctic, which has been speculated to be caused by radiation biases associated with cloud fraction and cloud liquid mass underestimation over the Arctic
∙CAM5 underestimates the cloud fraction and cloud liquid mass in the Arctic lower troposphere throughout the year, while UNICON alleviates these problems
∙Enhanced poleward heat and moisture transport can improve simulations of Arctic clouds and climate

○ Simulation of the recent change in winter Arctic cloud
- Analysis and simulation of the change in the winter Arctic cloud during the recent four decades
∙Winter Arctic cloud amount has consistently increased since 1998 in two satellite and two reanalyses datasets
∙Sensitivity experiments with atmospheric global circulation model show that recent reduced Arctic sea ice induces an increase in winter Arctic clouds by enhanced turbulent heat fluxes from open-ocean

○ Evaluation of the performance of winter Arctic cloud and related radiative fluxes simulated by cloud-microphysics parameterization
- The temporal evolution of the Arctic cloud from December 2015 to January 2016 was simulated with the two microphysics of Polar WRF, and compared with CloudSat, CALIPSO, and CERES satellite observation data
- Polar WRF well simulates the observed vertical distribution of hydrometeors in the Arctic cloud, resulting in the modeled cloud top heights had a correlation coefficient of 0.69–0.72 with those from satellite retrievals

○ Evaluating Arctic clouds in the KPOPS using satellite observations
- Deriving NASA MODIS Arctic cloud regimes and Evaluating the KPOPS Arctic cloud simulation
∙Arctic cloud regimes (CRs) based on the classification of joint histograms of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites
∙Quantifying the cloud radiative effects of each CR at the surface by compositing radiative fluxes provided by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System instrument (CERES) and CloudSat/CALIPSO ∙Comparison of observations and models with the relative occurrence frequency and cluster center of the cloud system shows that the optical thickness is thick and the amount of clouds is large, but it simulates the Arctic cloud system with considerable accuracy

(2) Developing KOPRI Polar Prediction System (KPOPS) and construct system prototype
- Development of operation system of KPOPS-Climate
∙A flexible framework for climate prediction system was developed and used to construct the prototype of seasonal climate prediction system with NCAR CESM1.2
∙The KPOPS-Climate hindcast simulations for winters from 2001 to 2015 were performed, and its predictability of surface air temperature over the Arctic, East Asia, and North America was evaluated
- Characteristics of dynamical cores in KPOPS-Climate system
∙Characteristics of finite volume, global spectral, spectral element dynamical cores in the CMIP5-AMIP were investigated for the Arctic region
∙Different dynamical model cores can significantly affect simulations of Arctic winter climate and associated teleconnection in midlatitude
∙A spectral element core on cubed-sphere grid simulates a warmer Arctic winter surface than a finite volume core on a latitude-longitude grid
∙Based on predictions with the KPOPS-Climate, finite-volume core shows higher predictability for winter surface air temperature over East Asia compared to spectral element core

○ Development and operation of KPOPS-Weather
- Development history and operation system of KPOPS-Weather
∙KPOPS-Weather consists of two components: Polar WRF forecast model and WRFDA 3D-Var data assimilation system. Polar WRF is specialized for prediction over polar regions, and its physics schemes are selected from sensitivity experiments to maximize its predictability
∙KPOPS-Weather can assimilate satellite radiance observations as well as conventional observations, such as radiosonde, aircraft, ship, and buoy observations. KPOPS-Weather includes bias correction, thinning, channel selection, and quality control to assimilate radiance observations
∙Background error covariance is calculated using NMC method.
KPOPS-Weather continuously assimilates observations every 6 hours, and at every 00 UTC it performs 10-day deterministic forecast
- Data assimilation and forecast experiments during summer Arctic expedition of IBRV Araon
∙From 2015, radiosonde observations have been conducted during summer Arctic expedition of IBRV Araon. Real-time forecasts with assimilating 6-hourly radiosonde observations from Araon have been carried out using KPOPS-Weather since 2017
∙In 2017 and 2018, in order to investigate effects of assimilating radiosonde observations from Araon, data assimilation experiments are conducted. Forecast results are transmitted to Araon, and they are used for outdoor activities of KOPRI scientists
∙In 2019, 6-hourly data assimilation cycles are conducted, which are similar to real-time forecast systems of operational centers, and 10-day forecasts are made every 00 UTC. Forecast results are evaluated by comparing them with forecasts from University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Florida State University, and European Centres for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
- Participating the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
∙In 2017, we submitted an application for participation in the YOPP to the World Meteorological Organization's Polar Prediction Project (PPP), passed peer-review, and officially participated in the YOPP
∙Conducting YOPP observation activities by sharing the radiosonde upper-air profile observations by successfully transmitting them on-line for GTS broadcasting
∙Performing (Semi) real-time Arctic weather forecasting with the assimilation of radiosonde data and sending it to the Araon to support sea ice field activity

○ Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations
- The process that additional radiosonde could impact on tropical and mid-latitude cyclones
∙In certain climatic states, the jet stream can intrude remarkably into the mid-latitudes, even in summer, then additional Arctic observations might effect on mid-latitude
∙Additional Arctic radiosonde observations during summer sometimes reduce the uncertainty and errors in the initial conditions of upper-level troposphere, and improve the prediction of atmospheric circulations over the North Hemisphere

○ Impact of data assimilation using extra observation for Arctic weather forecast
- Improvement of the short-range predictability over Alaska with the extra radiosonde observations during ARAON cruise
∙Assessment of the impact of the extra radisonde observation with two sets of ensemble forecast experiments with/without additional data assimilation
∙The results from the ensemble forecast experiments with 30 initial conditions showed that the forecasts from the reanalysis data with extra radiosonde assimilations have an improved 5-day forecast skill in 15 forecasts among the total of 23 initial conditions after 3.5 days

○ Development of verification system for KPOPS
- Development of verification scores for the KPOPS
∙ The verification system for the KPOPS-Climate was established by using the anomaly correlation coefficient, mean squared skill score, Brier skill score, and relative operating characteristics index
∙ Wintertime seasonal forecast performances of hindcast simulation by KPOPS-Climate and KPOPS-UNICON were compared and analyzed by using the verification system
(3) Constructing KPOPS application platform and diagnosing causes of climate extremes over the globe and Korea

○ Development of platform for storing and sharing diverse datasets
- development of data storage
∙ Network data storage system for prediction results of KPOPS-Climate and KPOPS-Weather, other prediction results, and reanalysis data was developed
- development of storage for ECMWF medium-range prediction
∙ Requested to use the ECMWF real-time prediction data and received approval
∙ Storage for ECMWF real-time medium-range prediction data was developed
- Development and operation of the visualization system for KPOPS predictions
∙ The web-based KPOPS-Climate and KPOPS-Weather's post-processing system was developed and used to provide semi-operational prediction results by visualizing surface temperature, precipitation, and wind and geopotential height

○ Arctic-North Pacific coupled impacts on the late autumn cold in North America
- Climatic impacts of the PDO and the warm arctic during the late autumn ∙Under the warm Arctic condition in the late Autumn, the altered PDO teleconnection pattern over North America and North Atlantic enhances the cold anomaly in the central North American region
- Physical understanding of the modulation effect of a warm arctic
∙The modulation effect of the Arctic manifests itself as an altered Rossby wave response to a transient vorticity forcing that results from an equatorward storm track shift, which is induced collaboratively by the PDO and the warm Arctic

○ Identifying of cause of the regional Arctic warming over the Barents-Kara Seas during early winter using climate model
- Analysis of the relation between the surface air temperature over the Barents-Kara Seas (BKSAT) and sea surface temperature over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO)
∙Growth of transient eddy in association with the changes in the storm track accompanied by warming over WNAO region contributing to the formation of the large-scale teleconnection pattern that links the North Atlantic and Arctic regions
∙Warming over the Barents-Kara Seas partly induced by the enhanced warm advection along the western edge of the anticyclonic anomaly over western Europe
∙Reasonable reproduction of importance of sea surface temperature over the WNAO for Arctic warming using fully coupled model experiments

○ Diagnosis of causes of extreme weather/climate in the mid-latutide
- Relationship between temperature extremes and a subseasonal hemispheric teleconnection pattern over the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer
∙By applying self-organizing map (SOM) analysis to 200-hPa geopotential fields for the period 1979–2012, a teleconnection pattern is identified that increased dramatically in its occurrence after the late 1990s
∙This pattern is characterized by a zonal wavenumber-5 pattern with anomalous high pressure cores, which coincide with regions of increasingly frequent temperature extremes in recent decades

○ Extreme Arctic warming caused by Atlantic windstorms
- A role of an Atlantic windstorm in extreme Arctic warming in January 2016
∙In January 2016, the Arctic experienced an extremely anomalous warming event after an extraordinary increase in air temperature at the end of 2015. During this event, a strong intrusion of warm and moist air and an increase in downward longwave radiation, as well as a loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas, were observed
∙Observational analyses revealed that the abrupt warming was triggered by the entry of a strong Atlantic windstorm into the Arctic in late December 2015, which brought enormous moist and warm air masses to the Arctic. Although the storm terminated at the eastern coast of Greenland in late December, it was followed by a prolonged blocking period in early 2016 that sustained the extreme Arctic warming
∙Numerical experiments indicate that the warming effect of sea ice loss and associated upward turbulent heat fluxes are relatively minor in this event. This result suggests the importance of the synoptically driven warm and moist air intrusion into the Arctic as a primary contributing factor of this extreme Arctic warming event
- A critical role of extreme Atlantic windstorms in Arctic warming
∙The Atlantic windstorms of extreme category in northern winter tend to follow a well-defined route toward the Atlantic sector of Arctic, and that heat and moisture transported by these extreme storms significantly warm the Arctic
∙A positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) condition and the associated intensified upper-level Atlantic jet provide favorable conditions for those extreme storm developments through enhanced vertical wind shear ∙These extreme windstorms lead to two discernible impacts on the Arctic: 1) enhanced poleward energy transport by moisture intrusion to the Arctic, which accompanies increased longwave downward radiation and 2) the occurrence of blocking-like patterns after the storm break-up ∙During these periods, significant Arctic warming was observed of a 10-fold increase versus normal and weak storms. The poleward deflections of extreme storms, and the Arctic warming driven by such storms, are well simulated in numerical experiments with ocean-atmosphere coupled models

○ Role of black carbon from gas flaring on Arctic warming
- Sensitivity experiments using an earth system model
∙Continuous emission of black carbon by gas flaring near the Arctic causes strong warming in spring due to reduced albedo by black carbon deposition in the area
∙The increased BC emissions over the pan-Arctic region result in additional sea-ice melting in the Arctic Ocean through changes in circulation and local sea-ice feedback
∙Both energy consumption and production processes can increase Arctic warming

○ Identifying characteristics of anomalous behaviors of polar vortex by type classification of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)
- Algorithms for classifying the types of SSW
∙Three-type classification based on different evolution of polar vortex during pre- and postwarming periods
∙Significant differences among three types identified using reanalysis datasets
∙Obtain and analysis of data by simulating atmospheric model installed on the Korea Polar Research Institute server. Reproduction of three types of SSW and support observation evidence

○ Relationship between Arctic circulations and storms
- Role of synoptic cyclones for the formation of Arctic summer circulation patterns
∙Quantitative contribution of synoptic cyclone activity to the amplitude of seasonal-mean anomalies in individual activity cores of the three dominant Arctic summer circulation patterns as clustered by the SOM method was investigated
∙The spatiotemporal distribution of synoptic cyclones in the Arctic domain is a major controlling factor for the Arctic summer circulation patterns

(출처 : SUMMARY 17p)

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1제 출 문 ... 3보고서 초록 ... 5요 약 문 ... 6S U M M A R Y ... 16C O N T E N T S ... 28목차 ... 29제 1 장 서론 ... 30 1.1 배경 및 필요성 ... 32 1.2 목적 및 연구 범위 ... 35제 2 장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 40 2.1 국내 기술개발 현황 ... 42 2.2 국외 기술개발 현황 ... 43제 3 장 연구개발 수행 내용 및 결과 ... 46 3.1 북극 구름/경계층 관측 및 활용 연구 ... 48 3.2 극지 예측 시스템(KPOPS) 개발 및 운용 ... 216 3.3 KPOPS 활용 플랫폼 구축 및 글로벌-한반도 이상기후 발생 예측 모델링 및 원인 진단 ... 343제 4 장 연구개발 목표 달성도 및 대외 기여도 ... 462 4.1 연차별 연구개발 목표 및 달성도 ... 464 4.2 대외 기여도 ... 471제 5 장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 472 5.1 향후 연구 방향 ... 474 5.2 성과 활용 계획 ... 475제 6 장 참고문헌 ... 476끝페이지 ... 530