[보고서]기후예측 시뮬레이터 개발

김영호

보고서 정보

주관연구기관

한국해양과학기술원
Korea Institute of Ocean Science ＆ Technology

연구책임자

김영호

참여연구자

박영규 , 김철호 , 장찬주 , 강석구 , 이광연

보고서유형

2단계보고서

발행국가

대한민국

언어

한국어

발행년월

2016-08

과제시작연도

2015

주관부처

미래창조과학부
Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning

등록번호

TRKO201800006716

과제고유번호

1711029871

사업명

기후변화대응기술개발

DB 구축일자

2018-05-12

키워드

기후변화.기후예측 시뮬레이터.물리과정 모수화.해양생지화학.기후시스템 모형.기후 피드백.Climate Changes.Climate Prediction Simulator.Physical Parameterization.Biogeochemical Processes.Climate System Model.Climate Feedback.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.23000/TRKO201800006716

표 Annual-mean climatological sea surface temperature in the (a) experiment of increased N_ocean value and (b) the reference experiment. (c) The difference of the two experiments (a – b).
표 Annual-mean climatological precipitable water in the (a) experiment of increased evapration value and (b) the reference experiment. (c) The difference of the two experiments (a – b).
표 Annual-mean climatological low level cloud amount in the (a) experiment of increased rthresh value and (b) the reference experiment. (c) The difference of the two experiments (a – b).
표 Annual-mean climatological sea surface temperature in the (a) experiment of increased mfac value and (b) the reference experiment. (c) The difference of the two experiments (a – b).
표 Annual-mean climatological precipitation in the (a) observation and (b) GAIA1.1 model. (c) The deviation from the oberservation.
표 Annual-mean climatological sea surface temperature in the GAIA1.1 model (upper). The deviation from the oberservation (bottom).
표 Annual-mean climatological sea surface temperature in the nudging experiment of GAIA1.1 model (upper). The deviation from the oberservation (bottom).
표 Annual-mean climatological precipitation in the nudging experiment of GAIA1.1 model (upper). The deviation from the oberservation (bottom).
표 Climatological mean 2m temperature (a) in the experiment of high ENT value case, (c) in the experiment of low ENT value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean 2m temperature (a) in the experiment of high Lndovocn value case, (c) in the experiment of low Lndovocn value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean 2m temperature (a) in the experiment of high numplum value case (double plum), (c) in the experiment of low numplum value case (single plum), and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high const_e value case, (c) in the experiment of low const_e value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high Rkm value case, (c) in the experiment of low Rkm value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high Criqc value case, (c) in the experiment of low Criqc value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high N_land value case, (c) in the experiment of low N_land value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high N_ocean value case, (c) in the experiment of low N_ocean value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high Qthalf value case, (c) in the experiment of low Qthalf value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high Beta_P value case, (c) in the experiment of low Beta_P value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation.
표 Hovmller diagram of 15°S―15°N averaged, 20―100-day filtered (shaded) and MJO filtered (contours) OLR (W m-2)
표 DI에 따른 MJO 특성.
표 Composited Hovmller diagram of OLR (w m-2, contours), and vertical integrated MSE(J, m-2 scaled by an arbitrary number 3 X 105, shaded) anomaly for (a) weak and (b) strong dry cases.
표 Composited Hovmller diagram of anomalous (a) zonal and (b) meridional advection term of column-integrated MSE budget for strong dry events.
표 Correlation map between JF Z500 anomalies and (a)JF Nino3, and (b) JF NATL indices using observations.
표 Partial correlation map between JF Z500 anomalies on (a)JF Nino3 index, and (b) JF NATL index, after removing the effect of the others.
표 JF Z500(left panel) and JF SSTA (right panel) composite map of
표 The Z500 anomaly composite map of
표 Same as Fig. 26, but for SST anomalies.
표 Spatial pattern of the linear trend in sea surface temperature based on the December-January-February (DJF) seasonal mean for the 1976/77-2011/12 periods.
표 Difference in North Pacific (20°N-60°N, 120°E-120°W) during winter-mean SST (°C)
표 (a) Anomalous zonal-mean zonal wind in the period 1988/89-1997/98. (b) Anomalous zonal-mean meridional surface current for the period 1998/99-2007/08. (c)-(g) are the same as in (b) except but the anomalous zonal-mean meridional current averaged from the surface to the depth of 45m, 100m, 200m, 300m, and 3000m, respectively. The zonal mean is taken over 120°E-120°W.
표 Schematic diagram of the evolution feature of SST, surface zonal wind, wind stress curl, and upper-layer meridional current anomalies indicating the multi-decadal climate oscillation. The positive and negative wind stress curl are marked as () and (), respectively.
표 Time series of SST (°C) anomaly in North Equatorial Current bifurcation region (10°N -20°N, 120°E-170°E) during winter for the period 1976-2011 and the epoch averaged divided by the decadal abrupt changes. The decadal abrupt changes exceed the 95% confidence level.
표 Time series of sea surface temperature averaged in South China Sea during the boreal summer (June-July-August) for the period of 1979~2011. Unit is °C.
표 he 11-year running correlation coefficients between Sea Surface temperature and precipitation over South China Sea for the period of 1979-2011. Note that the X-axis indicates a center of year in the 11-year window, therefore, the 2004 indicates a correlation coefficient in the year of 1999-2009.
표 (a) Simultaneous correlation coefficients in Precipitation-SST during summer for the period 1979-1998. (b) is the same as in (a) except but the period of 1999-2011.
표 (a) Lead-lag correlation of SST and various atmospheric variables over South China Sea during summer for the period of 1979-1998. (b) is the same as in (a) except but the period of 1999-2011.
표 Correlation coefficients between sea surface temperature and precipitation over South China Sea and Northeast Asia, respectively, for the period of 1979-1998 and 1999-2011.
표 The regressed stream line against with the precipitation variations averaged in South China Sea during summer for the period of 1979-2011.
표 (a) Long-term mean sea surface temperature (SST) distribution from KIOST climate model during the entire simulation period. (b) The standard deviation of monthly SST variability.
표 Long-term mean Precipitation rate simulated from KIOST climate model during the entire simulation period.
표 (a) First and (b) second EOFs of Tropical Pacific SSTAs (nondimensional) for the entire simulation period during winter.
표 Time series of anomalous SST(°C) in the Nino3.4 region (190°E-240°E, 5°S-5°N) during winter for the entire simulation period.
표 Climatological mean sea surface temperature in late summer (July-August) for 1979-2013.
표 Time series of mean SST(°C) in the Warm Pool (120°E-170°E, 10°S-10°N) during the late summer (July-August) for 1979-2013. Red line indicates a linear trend. (b) As in (a), but subtracting the climatological mean.
표 Lead-lagged Deep convective cloud-SST, Precipitation-SST, Shortwave radiation-SST correlation coefficient over the Warm Pool for 1984-1994 and 1999-2009. respectively.
표 (a) 11-year running correlation coefficients between SST and Deep convective cloud over the Warm Pool for 1984-2009 during the late summer (June-August). (b) Same as in (a), but for SST and Precipitation. (c) Same as in (a), but for SST and Short wave radiation. Note that the X-axis indicates the center of the year in the 11-year window; for example, the correlation coefficient at 1989 indicates the correlation coefficient for 1984-1994
표 (a) Schematic diagram to summarize SST-Cloud-Radiation feedback processes for 1984-1994. (b) Same as in (a) except for 1999-2009.
표 Lead-lagged Deep convective cloud-Precipitation , Deep convective cloud-Shortwave radiation, Precipitation-Shortwave radiation correlation coefficient over the Warm Pool for 1984-1994 and 1999-2009.
표 Global surface temperature anomaly (base period: 1961-1990) for the historical run(1930-2005), RCP 8.5(2006-2100) run and observations(ERSST).
표 (a) Annual mean of global surface temperature spread in 1931-2100, (b) The time series of global mean surface temperature spread.
표 Linear trend of surface temperature spread. (a) Historical run 1930 ~ 2005. (b) RCP 8.5 run 2006 ~ 2100.
표 (a) 50-yr running NINO3.4 SST index standard deviation during DJF in 1931-2100. (b) is same with (a) except before 1850s forcing. Note that time in (a) is marked the last year of each windows.
표 (a) Annual mean of global TS spread in 1930-1980, (b) in 2050-2100, (c) b minus a.
표 (a) The 50yr running Nino3.4 SST index standard deviation of 30 ensemble mean during DJF(green solid), The 50yr running average of Nino3.4 SST index(red solid) and The 50yr running average of Nino3.4 SST index(black solid). (b) Same as in (a) but detrended all.
표 (a) Long-term mean sea surface temperature (SST), (b) Precipitation, (c) OLR distribution from Observation for 1979-2013. (d),(e),(f) As in Figure (a),(b) and (c) but for 101-200 from KIOST climate model.
표 (a) Regression of Precipitation (mm/day) anomaly onto the NINO3.4 index of 1979-2012 DJF from observation. (c) As in Figure 1a but for the NINO3.4 index of 101-199 DJF from KIOST climate model. (b) Regression of OLR (W/m2) anomaly onto the NINO3.4 index of 1979-2012 DJF from observation. (d) As in Figure 1a but for the NINO3.4 index of 101-199 DJF from KIOST climate model. The dots denote the 95% confidence level.
표 Mean Precipitation values for 0.5°C SST bins.
표 (a) Point-wise correlation coefficient between SST and Precipitation in JJA for 1984-2009 from observation. (b) As in Figure 1a but for 101-200 from KIOST climate model. The dots denote 95% confidence level based on a Student’s t-test. Blue circle indicate the domain in the western tropical Pacific (WP; 136-160°E, 5°S-10°N). (c) Monthly lead/lags are represented by the correlation coefficients between SST and Precipitation. SST and Precipitation are averaged over the western tropical Pacific. A negative correlation coefficients when precipiation leads the SST indicates that the atmosphere is driving the ocean. The red bars denote 95% confidence level based on a Student’s t-test.
표 Correlation coefficients between SST and Precipitation over the western tropical Pacific (WP; 136-160°E, 5°S-10°N) for the boreal summer (JJA) for 1906-2005 from CMIP5 coupled models.
표 (a) Long-term mean sea surface temperature (SST) from positive CMIP5 models for 1906-2005. (b) As in Figure (a) but for negative CMIP5 models. (c) Long-term mean Precipitation from positive CMIP5 models for 1906-2005. (d) As in Figure (a) but for negative CMIP5 models.
표 Correlation coefficients between SST and Precipitation in Figure 5 compared to mean SST(°C) in NINO4 region (160°E-150°W, 5°S-5°N) for the boreal summer (JJA) for 1906-2005 from CMIP5 coupled models. Correlation coefficient between Correlation and NINO4 SST index is -0.62.
표 (a) The difference between positive and negative CMIP5 models of mean SST for the boreal summer (JJA) for 1906-2005. (b) As in Figure 22a but for mean Precipitation.
표 (a) Composite SST anomalies for the warm phase of ENSO for 1906-2004 from negative CMIP5 models. (c) As in Figure 15 but for positive CMIP5 models. (c) Composite SST anomalies for the cold phase of ENSO for 1906-2004 from negative CMIP5 models. (c) As in Figure 1 but for positive CMIP5 models.
표 The CRR-OLR relationships in CMIP5 simulation. Model names and their corresponding regression slopes are indicated. Note the different scales of each panel.
$The CRR-CiF relationships in CMIP5 simulation. The models are not the same as those shown in Figure 1, because some models do not simulate cirrus cloud fraction in the atmospheric layer about 0.1 hybrid sigma pressure coordinate.$ 표 The CRR-CiF relationships in CMIP5 simulation. The models are not the same as those shown in Figure 1, because some models do not simulate cirrus cloud fraction in the atmospheric layer about 0.1 hybrid sigma pressure coordinate.
표 The SST-CRR relationships in CMIP5 simulation.
표 The CRR-CiF_SST(shading; C) relationships in CMIP5 simulation.
표 The CiF-OLR_SST(shading; C) relationships in CMIP5 simulation.
표 An illustration of the concentration effect of deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the TWP region.
표 Regression coefficient field between EASM index and Precipitation(GPCP) & U850(NCEP) of observation. The redbox of Fig. 40a is the east asian rainband area(EARA).
표 Same as Fig. 40, except the ensemble mean of CESM-LE data.
표 a, Time series of EARA precipitation and EASM index of observation data. b, The 21yr running correlation between EARA season precipitation and EASM in 1979~2012(observation). The last year of each 21 year running period is plotted on the x axis.
표 a, The 21yr running correlation between EARA JJA season precipitation and EASM in 1979~2012(observation). b, as a, bur June. c, as a, bur July. d, as a, but August. The last year of each 21 year running period is plotted on the x axis.
표 Ensemble mean of regression coefficient field between EASM index and Precipitation of CESM-LE. a, in 1930~1950. b, in 2080~2100.
표 a, The mean state difference of horizontal wind vector (2051~2100 minus 1951~2000) of CESM-LE ensemble mean. b, as a, but precipitation.
표 The ensemble spread of EASM index in CESM-LE.
표 Mean of (a) observed and (b) simulated chlorophyll concentration. Panels (c) and (d) are the standard deviation of the observed and modeled chlorophyll concentration, respectively.
표 Chlorophyll anomalies in the model (black) and observation (green) averaged in (a) NINO3, (b) NINO3.4, and (c) NINO4 regions.
표 Eigenvectors of chlorophyll concentration in the tropical Pacific.
표 Lagged regressions of (a-c) chlorophyll and (d-f) SST against Nino3.4 index derived from observational data. (g-i) and (j-l) are same as (a-c) and (d-f) except using model data. Lag is in months. The areas exceeding the 95% confidence level are dotted.
표 (a) Mean and (b) standard deviation of chlorophyll concentration from the observations. (c), (d) and (e), (f) are same as (a), (b) from the fully-coupled model experiment and ocean-only model experiment, respectively.
표 Lagged regressions of observed (a)-(c) chlorophyll concentration and (d)-(f) SST against the first leading principle component of tropical chlorophyll. (g)-(i) and (j)-(l) are same as (a)-(c) and (d)-(f) except using data from fully-coupled experiment. Lag is in months. The stippled area denotes the 95% confidence region.
표 (a) Vertical profile of chlorophyll and (b) shortwave heating in the equatorial Pacific (150°W―90°W; 5°S―5°N). The shortwave heating in (b) is presented as the difference from CHL.0
표 (a) Mean equatorial SST (averaged along the equator 5°S―5°N) from the (a) fully-coupled experiments and the (b) ocean-only experiments. (c), (d) are mean thermocline depth averaged in NINO3 region (150°W―90°W; 5°S―5°N) from the coupled and ocean-only model experiments, respectively.
표 Mean difference of SST between CHL.on and CHL.0 from the (a) fully-coupled experiment and the (b) ocean-only experiment
표 Climatological mean phosphate (kg/mol) in (a) winter (December-January-February) and (b) summer (June-July-August). Upper pannel shows the observation (NODC World Ocean Atlas; upper pannel) while middle and bottom pannels show the differences of TOPAZ simulation and BLING simulation from the observation.
표 Climatological mean 2m temperature (℃) (a) in the GCM simulation with BLING, (c) in the GCM simulation with TOPAZ, and (e) the difference of two simulations (a - c). (b),(d), and (e) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation (mm day-1).
표 Climatological mean SST (℃) (a) in the GCM simulation with BLING, (c) in the GCM simulation with TOPAZ, and (e) the difference of two simulations (a - c). (b), (d), and (e) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for mixed layer depth (m).
표 standard normalization of regressions between NINO 3.4 index and 2m temperature (a) in the BLING simulation, (c) in the TOPAZ simulation, and (e) the difference of two simulations (a - c). (b), (d), and (e) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but regression between NINO 3.4 index and precipitation.
표 두 혼합방안에 따른 혼합층깊이(m) 차이 (N방안-KPP방안). 해칭한 영역은 95% 신뢰수준에서 차이가 유의함을 나타냄.
표 두 혼합방안에 따른 해면수온 차이 (N방안-KPP방안). 해칭한 영역은 95% 신뢰수준에서 차이가 유의함을 나타냄.
표 Annual mean SST difference. (a) GCM_1.0 - observation, (b) GCM_0.5 - GCM_1.0
표 Ice concentration difference in February between model and observation. (a) GCM_1.0 - observation, (b) GCM_0.5 - observation
표 Annual mean SST in (a) new GAIA simulation, and (d) old GAIA simulation, and (g) there difference. (b), (e), (h), and (c), (f), (i) are same as (a), (d), (g), but for DJF season and JJA season, respectively.
표 Same as Fig.91 but for mixed layer depth.
표 Same as Fig. 46 but for 2m temperature
표 Same as Fig. 91, but for total precipitation.
표 Same as Fig. 91 but for total cloud
표 Same as Fig. 91 but for low cloud
표 Same as Fig. 91 but for high cloud
표 Annual mean SST in (a) new GAIA simulation, and (d) DASK dataset,and (g) there difference. (b), (e), (h), and (c), (f), (i) are same as (a), (d), (g), but for DJF season and JJA season, respectively.
표 Same as Fig. 98 but for MLD
표 Same as Fig. 98 but for 2m temperature
표 Same as Fig. 98 but for total precipitation.
표 Same as Fig. 98 but for total cloud amount.
표 Same as Fig. 98 but for low cloud amount.
표 Same as Fig. 98 but for high cloud amount.

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