[보고서]GAIA 지구시스템 모형을 이용한 기후변화 진단 및 예측

이재학

보고서 정보

주관연구기관

한국해양과학기술원
Korea Institute of Ocean Science ＆ Technology

연구책임자

이재학

참여연구자

김성대 , 박영규 , 김경옥 , 권민호 , 진현근 , 이강진 , 황초롱 , 박혁민 , 김연경 , 박균도 , 김영호

보고서유형

최종보고서

발행국가

대한민국

언어

한국어

발행년월

2019-11

과제시작연도

2019

주관부처

과학기술정보통신부
Ministry of Science and ICT

등록번호

TRKO202000001331

과제고유번호

1711098006

사업명

기후변화대응기술개발(R&D)

DB 구축일자

2020-07-29

키워드

지구시스템 모형.기후변화.기후예측.자료동화.기후재분석자료.Earth System Model.Climate change.Climate prediction.Data assimilation.Climate reanalysis.

표 Kim and Kang (2012) 적운 모수화 방안의 개념도
표 Climatological mean 2m temperature (a) in the experiment of high ENT value case, (c) in the experiment of low ENT value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean 2m temperature (a) in the experiment of high Lndovocn value case, (c) in the experiment of low Lndovocn value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean 2m temperature (a) in the experiment of high numplum value case (double plum), (c) in the experiment of low numplum value case (single plum), and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high const_e value case, (c) in the experiment of low const_e value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high Rkm value case, (c) in the experiment of low Rkm value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high Criqc value case, (c) in the experiment of low Criqc value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high N_land value case, (c) in the experiment of low N_land value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high N_ocean value case, (c) in the experiment of low N_ocean value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high Qthalf value case, (c) in the experiment of low Qthalf value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 Climatological mean high cloud amount (a) in the experiment of high Beta_P value case, (c) in the experiment of low Beta_P value case, and (e) the difference of the two experiment (a - c). (b),(d),(f) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation
표 TOPAZ 생지화학과정 모식도
표 BLING의 모식도
표 Mean of (a) observed and (b) simulated chlorophyll concentration. Panels (c) and (d) are the standard deviation of the observed and modeled chlorophyll concentration, respectively
표 Chlorophyll anomalies in the model (black) and observation (green) averaged in (a) NINO3, (b) NINO3.4, and (c) NINO4 regions
표 Eigenvectors of chlorophyll concentration in the tropical Pacific. (a) and (b) are the first EOF modes in the observation and model, respectively. (c) and (d) are the second EOF modes in the observation and model, respectively
표 Lagged regressions of (a-c) chlorophyll and (d-f) SST against Nino3.4 index derived from observational data. (g-i) and (j-l) are same as (a-c) and (d-f) except using model data. Lag is in months. The areas exceeding the 95% confidence level are dotted
표 (a) Mean and (b) standard deviation of chlorophyll concentration from the observations. (c), (d) and (e), (f) are same as (a), (b) from the fully-coupled model experiment and ocean-only model experiment, respectively
표 Lagged regressions of observed (a)-(c) chlorophyll concentration and (d)-(f) SST against the first leading principle component of tropical chlorophyll. (g)-(i) and (j)-(l) are same as (a)-(c) and (d)-(f) except using data from fully-coupled experiment. Lag is in months. The stippled area denotes the 95% confidence region
표 (a) Vertical profile of chlorophyll and (b) shortwave heating in the equatorial Pacific (150°W―90°W; 5°S―5°N). The shortwave heating in (b) is presented as the difference from CHL.0
표 (a) Mean equatorial SST (averaged along the equator 5°S―5°N) from the (a) fully-coupled experiments and the (b) ocean-only experiments. (c), (d) are mean thermocline depth averaged in NINO3 region (150°W―90°W; 5°S―5°N) from the coupled and ocean-only model experiments, respectively
표 Mean difference of SST between CHL.on and CHL.0 from the (a) fully-coupled experiment and the (b) ocean-only experiment
표 Climatological mean phosphate (kg/mol) in (a) winter (December-January-February) and (b) summer (June-July-August). Upper pannel shows the observation (NODC World Ocean Atlas; upper pannel) while middle and bottom pannels show the differences of TOPAZ simulation and BLING simulation from the observation
표 Climatological mean 2m temperature (℃) (a) in the GCM simulation with BLING, (c) in the GCM simulation with TOPAZ, and (e) the difference of two simulations (a - c). (b),(d), and (e) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for precipitation (mm day-1)
표 Climatological mean 10m wind field (m s-1) (a) in the GCM simulation with BLING, (c) in the GCM simulation with TOPAZ, and (e) the difference of two simulations (a - c). (b),(d), and (e) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for low cloud amounts (%)
표 Climatological mean SST (℃) (a) in the GCM simulation with BLING, (c) in the GCM simulation with TOPAZ, and (e) the difference of two simulations (a - c). (b), (d), and (e) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but for mixed layer depth (m)
표 standard normalization of regressions between NINO 3.4 index and 2m temperature (a) in the BLING simulation, (c) in the TOPAZ simulation, and (e) the difference of two simulations (a - c). (b), (d), and (e) are same as (a), (c), and (e), but regression between NINO 3.4 index and precipitation
표 Characteristics of component models in KIOST Earth System Model
표 Global ensemble-mean SST bias of CMIP5 models. Wang (2014)
표 Mean SST bias in boreal winter (DFJ)
표 Mean SST biasn in boreal summer (JJA)
표 Comparison of precipitation in boreal winter (DJF)
표 Comparison of zonal winter in boreal winter (DJF)
표 Climatological monthly mean sea ice concentration in the Arctic region
표 Climatological monthly mean sea ice concentration in the Antarctic region
표 Spectral analysis of the NINO indeces
표 SST Regression to NION3.4 index
표 Comparison of El Niño phase locking
표 Skewness of SST variability in the tropical Pacific
표 Comparison of MJO Phase Map and spectral analysis
표 Schematic diagram of Ensemble Optimal Interpolation. Red, cyan, blue and green dots denote time-invariant historical ensemble members, forecast state, analysis state and observation, respectively. M means numerical model to evolve the analysis state in the present time step (t=i) to the forecast state in the next time step (t=i+1)
표 Number of temperature (left panel) and salinity (right panel) profiles by year (upper panel) and month (lower panel)
표 Horizontal distribution of the number of temperature profiles by year
표 Example of the actual filtering area in each filter domain
표 Sea Surface Temperature from the observation (World Ocean Atlas2009; upper panel) and KIOST Climate Reanalysis (middle panel), and difference between them (lower panel) averaged in December to February (left panel) and June to August (right panel)
표 Vertical section of the temperature along the equator averaged in time from 1947 to 2012 from observation (World Ocean Atlas 2009, left panel) and KIOST climate reanalysis (right panel)
표 Mixed layer depth (MLD) of (a) Montégut, (b) DASK, and (c) difference (DASK-Montégut). Left panels show boreal winter (December, January, February; DFJ) and right panels boreal summer (June, July, and August; JJA) averaged from 2004 to 2008. Units are m
표 Meridional temperature sections averaged from 2001 to 2010 along the dateline in (a) DASK, (b) EN4, (c) SODA and (d) ECDA. Units are °C
표 Meridional sections of temperature difference from the EN4 along the dateline for the (a) DASK, (b) SODA and (d) ECDA. Units are °C
표 Meridional salinity sections averaged from 2001 to 2010 along the dateline in (a) DASK, (b) EN4, (c) SODA and (d) ECDA. Thick white contours denote 25.6 and 26.8 density surfaces and units are psu
표 Meridional sections of salinity difference from the EN4 along the dateline for the (a) DASK, (b) SODA and (d) ECDA. Thick white contours denote 25.6 and 26.8 density surfaces and units are m
표 Horizontal distribution of salinity averaged from 2001 to 2010 on the = 26.8 density surface, on which NPIW disperses southwestward in the (a) DASK, (b) EN4, (c) SODA and (d) ECDA. Units are psu
표 (a) Meridional temperature section from the EN4, and sections of temperature difference from the EN4 for (b) DASK-EN4, (c) SODA-EN4 and (d) ECDA-EN4. The temperature fields are averaged in 160°-180°E from 2001 to 2010. Units are °C
표 (a) Meridional salinity section from the EN4, and sections of salinity difference from the EN4 for (b) DASK-EN4, (c) SODA-EN4 and (d) ECDA-EN4. Thick white contours in (a) 25.6 and 26.8 density surfaces. The salinity fields are averaged in 160° -180°E from 2001 to 2010. Units are psu
표 Comparison of precipitation between KIOST climate reanalysis (middle panel) and observations (CMAP-left panel; GPCP-right panel) in average from December to February (upper panel) and June to August (lower panel). The precipitation from the CMAP and GPCP is averaged in time from 1983 to 2012 while the reanalyzed one averaged from 1947-1960
표 Comparison of precipitation between KIOST climate reanalysis (middle panel) and observations (CMAP-left panel; GPCP-right panel) in average from December to February (upper panel) and June to August (lower panel). The precipitation from the CMAP and GPCP is averaged in time from 1983 to 2012 while the reanalyzed one averaged from 1961-1980
표 Comparison of precipitation between KIOST climate reanalysis (middle panel) and observations (CMAP-left panel; GPCP-right panel) in average from December to February (upper panel) and June to August (lower panel). The precipitation from the CMAP and GPCP is averaged in time from 1983 to 2012 while the reanalyzed one averaged from 1983-1988
표 Correlation coefficients between time series of HC300 (from 1980 to 2010) estimated from EN4 observations and each reanalysis of DASK, SODA, and ECDA
표 Mean observed HC300 from observation(EN4) and mean offsets of HC300 in DASK, SODA, and ECDA from EN4
표 Anomalies of upper 300 m Heat Content (HC300) from 1980 to 2010 averaged in (a) Northern Ocean, (b) Southern Ocean, (c) Tropical Pacific, (d) Tropical Atlantic, (e) Tropical Indian Ocean, and (f) Northwest Pacific. Black, red, blue and green lines denote HC300 from DASK, EN4, SODA and ECDA, respectively
표 Horizontal map of correlation coefficient between upper HC300 estimated from EN4 and modeled HC300 (from 1980 to 2010) for (a) DASK, (b) DASK with wind correction, (c) SODA and (d) ECDA
표 Comparison between estimates of meridional heat transport by two reanalysis (DASK and ECDA) and previously published estimates of meridional heat transport based on observations in the (a) global ocean of DASK, (b) Indo-Pacific of DASK, (c) Atlantic of DASK, (d) global ocean of ECDA, (e) Indo-Pacific of ECDA, and (f) Atlantic of ECDA. Errror bars are based on data from observations
표 1st EOF modes of HC300 in the tropical Pacific for (a)DASK (b)EN4 (c)SODA (d)ECDA and (e)their Principal Component time series
표 1st EOF modes of HC300 in the north Pacific for (a)DASK, (b)EN4, (c)SODA,(d)ECDA and (e)their time series
표 1st EOF modes of HC300 in the Indian Ocean for (a)DASK, (b)EN4, (c)SODA, (d)ECDA and (e)their timeseries
표 Comparison of the mean zonal current (cm/s) of historical run (without data assimilation) (dotted line), DASK without wind correction (solid line) and DASK with wind correction (dashed line) with the TAO current observations (solid line) at four equatorial mooring sites at 165°E (a,b), 170°W (c,d), 140°W (e,f), and 110°W (g,h) for two periods, before 1999 (a,c,e,g) and after 2000 (b,e,f,h). Left (right) panel in each figure shows mean zonal current (RMSD)
표 Sea Ice Thickness (m) produced by DASK without wind nuding (left panel) and with 50% wind nuding (right panel)
표 Temperature increment by ocean data assimilation of the DASK averaged from 1979 to 2012 in March-April-May (Left upper panel), Jun-July-August (Right upper panel), September-October-November (Left lower panel), and December-January-February (Right lower panel)
표 Salinity increment by ocean data assimilation of the DASK averaged from 1979 to 2012 in March-April-May (Left upper panel), Jun-July-August (Right upper panel), September-October-November (Left lower panel), and December-January-February (Right lower panel)
표 Introduction of the KIOST Climate Reanalysis in the APDRC
표 기후재분석 자료의 해면 수온 비교
표 기후재분석 자료의 해면 염분 비교
표 강수량 모의 성능 비교
표 바람장 모의 성능 비교
표 1 year forcasts of NINO3.4 from initial condition at every FEB, MAY, AUG, and NOV from 1982 to 2011. The correlation at 12 months lead time is 0.604, 0.705, 0.312, 0.554, respectively
표 Hovmöller diagram of 1 year forecasts of NINO3.4
표 Horizontal maps of correlation between forecasted Sea Surface Temperature and observed on for 6 month leading time at (a) February start simulation, (b) May start simulation, (c)August start simulation, and (d) November start simulation. Green, yellow, and red shading above 99% confidence level
표 Horizontal maps of correlation between forcasted Sea Surface Temperature and observed on for 12 month leading time at (a) February start simulation, (b) May start simulation, (c)August start simulation, and (d) November start simulation. Green, yellow, and red shading above 99% confidence level
표 1year forecasts of NINO3.4 from initial condition from different wind bias correction rate (0%, 25%, 50%) from 1982 to 2011. The correlation at 12 months lead time is 0.776, 0.740, 0.705, respectively
표 Forecast error of GAIA Climate Model initialized from February every year by ocean data assimilation. Forecast error was obtained from the difference between forecasted SST and climate reanalysis
표 Same with Figure 2.3.6 but initialized from May every year
표 Same with Figure 2.3.6 but initialized from August every year
표 Same with Figure 2.3.6 but initialized from November every year
표 Forecasted NINO3.4 index from May, 2014 to April, 2015 (blue line for ensemble average, and grey lines for each ensemble member) and the real NINO3.4 index to March, 2015
표 CMIP6 endorsed experiments
표 CMIP6 experiments of KIOST
표 Anthropogenic forcings in CMIP6 runs of KIOST-ESM
표 Spatial distributions of (a-b) SST obtained from EN4 climatology, SST differences relative to that from EN4 of (c-d) PI-control and (e-f) CM2.5K during (a,c,e) JFM and (b,d,f) JAS. Unit is °C
표 Spatial distributions of (a-b) SSS obtained from EN4 climatology, SSS differences relative to that from EN4 of (c-d) PI-control and (e-f) CM2.5K during (a,c,e) JFM and (b,d,f) JAS. Unit is psu
표 Spatial distributions of (a-b) MLD obtained from EN4 climatology, MLD differences relative to that from EN4 of (c-d) PI-control and (e-f) CM2.5K during (a,c,e) JFM and (b,d,f) JAS. Unit is m
표 (a-c) Spatial distributions of annual averaged precipitation rate obtained from (a) GPCP, (b) PI-control and (c) CM2.5K. (d-e) Spatial distributions of model biases of annual averaged precipitation rate obtained from (d) PI-control and (e) CM2.5K. Unit is mm/day
표 Spatial distributions of (a-b) 2 m air temperature obtained from ERA-Interim, 2 m air temperature differences relative to that from ERA-interim of (c-d) PI-control and (e-f) CM2.5K during (a,c,e) DJF and (b,d,f) JJA. Unit is K
표 Wavenumber-frequency spectra for summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) obtained from (a-b) NCEP/NOAA reanalysis, (c-d) PI-control, and (e-f) CM2.5K simulation calculated from (a,c,e) zonal velocity at 850 hPa (U850) and (b,d,e) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The vertical lines correspond the periods of 30 and 80 days
표 Phase propogation of the BSISO (Boral Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation) in the Historical run
표 (a) The standard deviation of monthly SST anomalies simulated in KIOST-ESM PI control. (b) is the same as (a) but HadISST. (c), the climatological standard deviation of Nĩno 3.4 SST in each month. Black (blue) bar indicates HadISST (KIOST-ESM PI control), respectively
표 The composite analysis of tropical Pacific SST with El Nino and La Nina events. (a) El nĩno events simulated in KIOST-ESM PI control. (b) as (a), but La nĩna events (c) El nĩno events in HadISST. (d) as (c), but La nĩna events
표 The composite analysis of tropical Pacific precipitation with El Nino and La Nina events. (a) Precipitation anomalies during El nĩno events in KIOST-ESM PI control. (b) as (a), but La nĩna events (c) El nĩno events in HadISST. (d) as (c), but La nĩna events
표 Scatter plot of between SST (x axis) and precipitation (y axis) during DJF in the Nĩno 3.4 region. a. observation, b. KIOST ESM PI control
표 The evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration prescribed in KIOST ESM experiment. Pink line indicates 4×CO2 concentration experiment and blue denotes 1%/year increase experiment
표 The time series of the annual global mean surface temperature simulated in KIOST ESM 4×CO2 experiment
표 Linear trend maps of surface temperature in KIOST ESM 4×CO2 experiment. (a) The annual mean. (b) DJF season mean. (c) JJA season mean
표 The mean state difference map between KIOST ESM 4×CO2 and PI control. (a) surface temperature. (b) precipitation (shading). Contour denotes the climatological mean SST and precipitation in (a), (b)
표 a. The standard deviation of monthly SST anomalies simulated in KIOST-ESM PI control. (b) as (a), but KIOST ESM 4×CO2 experiment
표 The scatter plot of between SST (x axis) and precipitation (y axis) during DJF in the Nĩno 3.4 region in KIOST ESM 4×CO2 experiment
표 Annual average of area-mean 2m air temperature in the (a) global domain and (b) Korean Peninsula (125°–130°E, 35°– 42°N) obtained from Historical run (1850-2014) and ScenarioMIPs simulations (2015-2100). Blue, green, red, and black lines indicate those obtained from SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 and Historical run, respectively. Unit is °C. Vertical line indicates the boundary of Historical run and scenarioMIPs simulation
표 Spatial distributions of the increment of the SST of the averages for (a,d,g) 2030-2040, (b,e,h) 2060-2070, and (c,e,i) 2090-2100 in the global domain under the influences of the (a-c) SSP1-2.6, (d-f) SSP2-4.5, and (g-i) SSP5-8.5 scenarios relative to the averages for 2005-2014 estimated from the Historical run
표 Same as Figure 24, except for the domain around Korea
표 Northern Annular Mode for ERA40, NCEP2, and KIOST
표 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Mode for ERA40, NCEP2, and KIOST
표 EOF1 of SST anomalies for ERA40, NCEP2, and KIOST
표 Nino3.4-regressed zonal wind anomalies at 300 hPa for ERA40, NCEP2, and KIOST
표 Correlation coefficients of Nino indices from KIOST and NOAA OI sea surface temperatures with prediction leads in month
표 Nino3.4-regressed precipitation anomalies from (a) NOAA OI SST and CMAP precipitation, (b) KIOST hindcast results in 3-month lead, and (c) KIOST hindcast results in 6-month lead
표 Predictability of sea surface temperatures from hindcast results of KIOST Earth System model
표 Predictability of sea surface temperatures from hindcast results of KIOST Earth System model in East Asian region
표 Predictability of precipitation rates from hindcast results of KIOST Earth System model
표 Nino-index-regressed upper level zonal wind anomalies from (a), (b), (c) NCEP2 reanalysis dataset and (d), (e), (f), (g), (h), and (i) the hindcast results from KIOST Earth System model
표 Map of GPI climatology from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. (a) annual mean, and (b) JASON (July, August, September, October, and November ) season
표 Composite GPI anomaly for (a) positive SST index, and (b) negative SST index during JASON (July, August, September, October, and November) season
표 (a) Map of climatology of GPI during JASON (July, August, September, October, and November) season for 20-model ensemble of AR4-IPCC models. (b) Same as (a) but except for SSTI-regressed GPI anomaly
표 Partial contribution of each variables to GPI anomaly. (a) vorticity, (b) relative humidity, (c) potential intensity, and (d) vertical wind shear of horizontal winds for ensemble of 20-AR4-IPCC coupled GCMs
표 Maps of correlation coefficient between SSTI and (a) vorticity, (b) relative humidity, (c) potential intensity, and (d) vertical wind shear of horizontal winds
표 Climatological mean of GPI from (a) NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and (b) KIOST reanalysis by KIOST climate model in JASON (July, August, September, October, and November) season. (b) Genesis locations of tropical cyclones from JTWC (the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) in JASON. Colors indicate mean genesis frequency of 5.0 by 5.0 degree grid box
표 Annual cycle of mean genesis potential index and climatological number of tropical cyclones in the (a) Northern Hemisphere, (b) western North Pacific, (c) northern Indian, and (d) Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins. Closed bar, red open circle, and blue closed circle indicate observed TC genesis, GPI from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and GPI from KIOST reanalysis, respectively
표 Maps of relative error of relative humidity at 700 hPa in JASON season for (a) KIOST reanalysis, (b) 18-model ensemble mean, (c) CanESM2, (d) CCSM4, (e) CESM1(CAM5), (f) CNRM-CM5, (f) CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, (g) GFDL-ESM2M, (h) GISS-E2-H, (i) GISS-E2-R, (j) HadGEM2-AO, (k) HadGEM2-CC, (l) HadGEM2-ES, (m) INM-CM4, (n) IPSL-CM5A-MR, (o) MIROC5, (p) MPI-ESM-LR, (q) MRI-CGCM3, (r) NorESM1-ME, and (s) NorESM1-M. The relative error is defined as the difference of the model climatology and the reanalysis climatology at each grid point normalized by the magnitude of the reanalysis climatology at that grid point
표 Maps of genesis potential index differences of historical and RCP 4.5 scenario runs in CMIP5 climate models
표 Same as Figure 2.5.19 except for 18-model ensemble mean. Shaded areas indicate statistically significant at 95% confidence level by Student’s t-test
표 Difference of climatological potential intensity between two periods, historical and RCP4.5 in JASON season for varying (a) sea surface temperature, (b) mean sea level pressure, (c) air temperature, and (d) specific humidity with the other variables as climatology of historical run. All results are 18-model ensemble mean
표 Differences of potential temperatures between Historical and RCP4.5 scenarios over the western North Pacific region (130E-180, 5N-15N) during JASON season and temperature profiles. Blue and orange lines indicate Historical and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively
표 Spatial distribution of correlation coefficients of JFM SST and (a, d) SH index, (b, e) negative local DJF turbulent heat flux (Qtur), and (c, f) negative local DJF surface meridional wind speed (V) during (a-c) 1971-1985 and (d-f) 1991-2005. The area of significant correlation at 95% confidence level is marked with black contour line. Target area of this study (the SRG region, 130°-150°E, 26°-33°N) is overlaid with black squares
표 Lead-lag correlation coefficients of temperature in each month and each depth with JFM SST (black squares) during (a, c, e) 1971-1985 and (b, d, f) 1991-2005 from (a-b) SODA, (c-d) GECCO, and (e-f) DASK. Significant correlation at 90% confidence level is marked with solid contour
표 Lead-lag correlation coefficients of temperature in each month and each depth with previous FMA SST (black squares) during (a, c) 1971-1985 and (b, d) 1991-2005 from (a-b) SODA, and (c-d) DASK. Significant correlation at 95% confidence level is marked with solid contour
표 Lead-lag correlation coefficients of temperature in each month and each depth with preceding March SST during (a, c) 1971-1985 and (b, d) 1991-2005 from (a-b) Imitation run and (c-d) Exp-UV run. Significant correlation at 90% confidence level is marked with solid contour
표 Correlation coefficients of JFM SST with March SST and NDJ Qtur during 1971-1985 and 1991-2005 from various numerical experiment cases (Imitation, Exp-UV, Exp-Ta, Exp-Qs, and Exp-Hum). Significant correlation at 95% confidence level is marked with boldface
표 (a) 15yr moving average (contour) and anomaly (color) and (b) 15yr moving temporal standard deviation of wind speed of each season
표 15yr moving average (solid line) and standard deviation (dotted line) of the SH index
표 (a) EOF of Meridional stream function obtained from DASK (b) As in (a) but for SODA data
표 Mass Balance (bar), Accumulation (sky blue line) and Melting (yellow line) rate of snow for last 50years averaged over Greenland obtained from (a) NCEP and (b) KIOST. Units are mm year-1
표 Mass balance averaged over Greenland obtained Form (a) FOAM and (b) KIOST (GFDL)
표 CMIP5의 모델 리스트 및 데이터 해상도
표 The EOF analysis using the surface temperature within 27 CMIP5 multi model ensembles in the historical (1930∼2005) run. X axis in right column indicates each ensemble model
표 as Figure 2.7.1 but the RCP 8.5 period (2006∼2100)
표 The time series of global mean surface temperature anomaly (from 1961-1990 mean) in the historical run (1930-2005), RCP 8.5(2006-2100) run and NCEP reanalysis
표 a. The total period (1931-2100) mean in the ensemble spread map of annual surface temperature in the CESM-LE. b. the time series of global mean surface temperature spread
표 Linear trend map of surface temperature spread during (a) Historical (1930–2005). (b). RCP 8.5 (2006 – 2100)
표 (a) The 50-years running standard deviation DJF Nĩno 3.4 SST index during 1931-2100 in CESM-LE. (b) as (a), but 100 times randomly selected 170 years in CESM PI control. Note that X axis in (a) indicates the last year of 50 years running window
표 (a) The mean annual SST spread during 1930-2005. (b) as (a) but 2050-2100 mean. (c) (b) minus (a)
표 (a) The ensemble mean of 50 years running standard deviation in Nĩno3.4 SST index shown in Figure 2.7.6a (Green solid), the 50 years running mean of Nĩno3.4 SST index spread (Red Solid) and the 50 years running mean of global mean surface temperature spread during DJF (Black Solid). (b) is the same as in (a) except using the detrended time series
표 as Figure 2.7.1 but 40 ensembles in CESM-LE
표 as Figure 2.7.2 but 40 ensembles in CESM-LE
표 The EOF based on 30 times randomly selected 76 years mean surface temperature simulated in CESM-LE pre-industrial run for the simulation period of 1100 years
표 The EOF analysis based on the surface temperature during DJF in CESM-LE (a-c), historical run (1930∼2005) EOF 1,2,3 mode. (d-f), RCP 8.5 run (2006∼2100)
표 The scatter plot of between the zonal gradient of the equatorial Pacific SST (5°S~5°N, 130°E-160°E SST minus 5S~5N, 210°E~270°E SST ) change (2050∼2100 mean minus 1930∼1980 mean) during DJF and ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE
표 (a) The scatter plot of between the western equatorial Pacific SST (5°S∼5°N, 130°E∼160°E SST mean) change (2050∼2100 mean minus 1930∼1980 mean) during DJF and ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE. (b) as (a) but eastern equatorial Pacific SST (5°S∼5°N, 210°E ∼270°E SST) during DJF
표 The CRR-OLR relationships in CMIP5 simulation. Model names and their corresponding regression slopes are indicated. Note the different scales of each panel
$The CRR-CiF relationships in CMIP5 simulation. The models are not the same as those shown in Figure 2.7.15, because some models do not simulate cirrus cloud fraction in the atmospheric layer about 0.1 hybrid sigma pressure coordinate$ 표 The CRR-CiF relationships in CMIP5 simulation. The models are not the same as those shown in Figure 2.7.15, because some models do not simulate cirrus cloud fraction in the atmospheric layer about 0.1 hybrid sigma pressure coordinate
표 The SST-CRR relationships in CMIP5 simulation
표 The CRR-CiF_SST(shading; C) relationships in CMIP5 simulation
표 The CiF-OLR_SST(shading; C) relationships in CMIP5 simulation
표 An illustration of the concentration effect of deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the TWP region
표 Spatial pattern of the linear trend in sea surface temperature based on the December-January-February (DJF) seasonal mean for the 1976/77-2011/12 periods
표 Difference in North Pacific (20°N-60°N, 120°E-120°W) during winter-mean SST (°C) (a) between 1976-87 and 1988-97 (b) between 1988-97 and 1998-11. Dots denote the region where the statistical significance is above the 95% confidence level based on a Student’s t test. (c) Time series of SST (°C) anomaly in the western and central North Pacific (20°N-44°N, 120°E-150°W) during winter for the period 1976-2011 and the epoch averaged divided by the decadal abrupt changes. The decadal abrupt changes exceed the 95% confidence level
표 (a) Anomalous zonal-mean zonal wind in the period 1988/89-1997/98. (b) Anomalous zonal-mean meridional surface current for the period 1998/99-2007/08. (c)-(g) are the same as in (b) except but the anomalous zonal-mean meridional current averaged from the surface to the depth of 45m, 100m, 200m, 300m, and 3000m, respectively. The zonal mean is taken over 120°E-120°W
표 Schematic diagram of the evolution feature of SST, surface zonal wind, wind stress curl, and upper-layer meridional current anomalies indicating the multi-decadal climate oscillation. The positive and negative wind stress curl are marked as () and (), respectively
표 Time series of SST (°C) anomaly in North Equatorial Current bifurcation region (10°N -20°N, 120°E-170°E) during winter for the period 1976-2011 and the epoch averaged divided by the decadal abrupt changes. The decadal abrupt changes exceed the 95% confidence level
표 Time series of sea surface temperature averaged in South China Sea during the boreal summer (June-July-August) for the period of 1979~2011. Unit is °C
표 The 11-year running correlation coefficients between Sea Surface temperature and precipitation over South China Sea for the period of 1979-2011. Note that the X-axis indicates a center of year in the 11-year window, therefore, the 2004 indicates a correlation coefficient in the year of 1999-2009
표 (a) Simultaneous correlation coefficients in Precipitation-SST during summer for the period 1979-1998. (b) is the same as in (a) except but the period of 1999-2011
표 (a) Lead-lag correlation of SST and various atmospheric variables over South China Sea during summer for the period of 1979-1998. (b) is the same as in (a) except but the period of 1999-2011
표 Correlation coefficients between sea surface temperature and precipitation over South China Sea and Northeast Asia, respectively, for the period of 1979-1998 and 1999-2011
표 The regressed stream line against with the precipitation variations averaged in South China Sea during summer for the period of 1979-2011
표 Climatological mean sea surface temperature in late summer (July-August) for 1979-2013
표 Time series of mean SST(°C) in the Warm Pool (120°E-170°E, 10°S-10°N) during the late summer (July-August) for 1979-2013. Red line indicates a linear trend. (b) As in (a), but subtracting the climatological mean
표 (a) 11-year running correlation coefficients between SST and Deep convective cloud over the Warm Pool for 1984-2009 during the late summer (June-August). (b) Same as in (a), but for SST and Precipitation. (c) Same as in (a), but for SST and Short wave radiation. Note that the X-axis indicates the center of the year in the 11-year window; for example, the correlation coefficient at 1989 indicates the correlation coefficient for 1984-1994
표 Lead-lagged Deep convective cloud-SST, Precipitation-SST, Shortwave radiation-SST correlation coefficient over the Warm Pool for 1984-1994 and 1999-2009. respectively
표 (a) Schematic diagram to summarize SST-Cloud-Radiation feedback processes for 1984-1994. (b) Same as in (a) except for 1999-2009
표 Lead-lagged Deep convective cloud-Precipitation , Deep convective cloud-Shortwave radiation, Precipitation-Shortwave radiation correlation coefficient over the Warm Pool for 1984-1994 and 1999-2009. respectively
표 (a) Linear trend in sea surface temperature based on the December-January-February (DJF) seasonal mean for the 1979-2010 period. (b) Time series of mean SST (°C) in the western and central North Pacific (20°-44°N, 120°E-150°W) during winter for the period of 1979-2010
표 (a) Difference in Pacific (20°N-60°N, 120°E-120°W) during winter-mean SST (°C) between 1979-97 and 1998-10. (b) Difference in Pacific (20°S-20°N, 120°E-120°W) during winter-mean SST (°C) between 1979-97 and 1998-10. Dots denote the region where the statistical significance is above the 95% confidence level based on a Student’s t test
표 (a) First and (b) second EOFs of North Pacific SSTAs(nondimensional) for the period 1979-2010 during winter. (c),(d) PC time series of the first and second EOFs for the period 1979-2010, respectively
표 (a) Linear trend in sea surface height on the December-January-February (DJF) seasonal mean for the 1979-2007eriod. (b) Difference in Pacific (30°S-30°N, 120°E-120°W) during winter-mean SSH(m) between 1979-97 and 1998-07Dots denote the region where the statistical significance is above the 95% confidence level based on a Student’s t test
표 Time series of the NEC bifurcation latitude Yp(t)based on the observed SSH anomaly data in 12°N-14°N and 127°E-130°E. Red line denotes the linear trend
표 Mean SST regressed for NEC bifurcation latitude time series during winter for the period 1979-2007. For a convenience, -1 is multiplied
표 Correlation coefficients between Korean winter temperature and Arctic Oscillation Index, Siberian High Index and Aleutian Low Index for each period
표 The linear regression coefficients between the normalized Korean winter temperature and sea level pressure (a) before 1986 and (b) after 1986. Shading indicates the 90% confidence level. Unit is hPa
표 The 15-year running correlation coefficients between Korean winter temperature anomaly and (a) Arctic Oscillation Index, (b) Siberian High Index, and (c) Aleutian Low Index, respectively, for the period of 1970-2010
표 Composite maps of sea level pressure anomalies during the positive phase of Arctic Oscillation (a) before 1986 and (b) after 1986. (c) and (d) are the same as (a) and (b), except but the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation. Each composite member is 7, 13, 9 and 12 in order. Shading indicates the 90% confidence level. Unit is hPa and contour interval is 0.5 hPa. A positive (negative) phase of Arctic Oscillation indicates that its index is above (below) zero
표 The differences of low-level wind at 1000 hPa between the positive and the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (a) before 1986 and (b) after 1986. Shading indicates the 90% confidence level
표 (a) and (b) is the same as in fig. 4.3.10(a) and 3.20(b) except but the geopotential height at 500 hPa. Box shown in figure represents the region to define the East Asian Winter Monsoon Index by Cui and Sun(1999). Shading indicates the 90% confidence level. Unit is hPa

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