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Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The accuracy of exit poll mainly depends on the sampling method of voting places. For exit poll, we propose a probability sampling method of selecting voting places as an alternative to the bellwether polling place sampling. Through an empirical study based on the 2004 general election data, the eff...

The accuracy of exit poll mainly depends on the sampling method of voting places. For exit poll, we propose a probability sampling method of selecting voting places as an alternative to the bellwether polling place sampling. Through an empirical study based on the 2004 general election data, the efficiency of the suggested systematic sampling from ordered voting places was evaluated in terms of mean prediction error and it turns out that the proposed sampling method outperformed the bellwether polling places sampling. We also calculated the variance of estimator from the proposed sampling, and considered the sample size problem to guarantee the target precision using the design effect of the proposed sample design.

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