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NTIS 바로가기한국인구학 = Korea journal of population studies, v.33 no.1, 2010년, pp.161 - 189
우해봉 (국민연금연구원)
Dealing with uncertainty has been a critical issue in demographic and population forecasting since 1980. This study reviews methodological developments in demographic and population forecasting over the last several decades. First, this study reviews the important issue of the uncertainty surroundin...
핵심어 | 질문 | 논문에서 추출한 답변 |
---|---|---|
전문가 판단법이란 무엇인가? | 전문가 판단법은 인구추계 과정에서 전문가의 인구학적 지식을 고려하는 특성을 갖는데, 기본적으로 아직 발생하지 않은 사건의 발생 개연성에 관한 전문가의 의견에 기초하여 예측구간이 갖는 확률을 계산하는 방법이다. 예를 들면, 장기적인 사망력 예측에 수반된 불확실성은 생존율에 유의미한 영향을 미칠 수있는 과학기술 혁신에 크게 의존하며, 장기적인 인구이동과 관련된 불확실성은 세계경제에서 발생하는 구조적 변동과 밀접한 관련이 있다. | |
출산력의 경우 단기적으로 큰 변화를 보이지는 않지만, 장기적인 불확실성의 정도는 매우 큰 이유는 무엇인가? | 반면 출산력의 경우 단기적으로 커다란 변화를 보이지는 않지만 장기적인 불확실성의 정도는 매우 큰 특성을 보인 다. 이는 가임 연령대에 위치한 여성의 규모 예측에 수반된 불확실성뿐만 아니라 이들 여성들이 각각 얼마의 자녀를 출산할 것인가에 관한 추가적인 불확실성이 발생하기 때문이다. 출산력이나 인구이동에 비해 사망력은 대체로 방향성을 갖고 점진적으로 변하는 경향이 있기에 추세 예측과 관련된 불확실성의 정도는 상대적으로 낮은 것으로 평가되고 있다(De Beer, 2000). | |
인구추계 과정에서 발생하는 불확실성의 가장 중요한 원천은 무엇인가? | 인구추계의 불확실성은 일정 부분 현시점의 인구학적 정보가 불확실한 것에 기인한다(예컨대, 기준연도 정보의 부정확성). 그러나 인구추계 과정에서 발생하는 불확실성의 가장 중요한 원천은 인구변동 요인들의 미래 추세, 즉 출산력, 사망력, 인구이동 예측에 수반되는 불확실성이라고 할 수 있다(De Beer, 2000) 4) . |
김종면, 김우철 (2007) 한국조세연구원
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