[논문]기술로드맵을 통한 기술기획: 특허인용네트워크의 활용

정유진; 윤병운

doi:10.5762/kais.2011.12.11.5227

기술로드맵을 통한 기술기획: 특허인용네트워크의 활용
Technology Planning through Technology Roadmap: Application of Patent Citation Network 원문보기

한국산학기술학회논문지 = Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society, v.12 no.11, 2011년, pp.5227 - 5237

정유진 (동국대학교 산업시스템공학과) , 윤병운 (동국대학교 산업시스템공학과)

초록
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기술로드맵은 기술, 제품, 시장의 관계를 고려하여 기술전략 및 기획을 지원하는 강력한 도구로서 기술 로드맵을 개발하거나 실무에 적용시킨 사례 등과 관련된 연구가 다수 수행되었다. 그러나 대부분의 기술로드맵 연구들은 체계적이고 정량적인 분석보다는 브레인스토밍, 전문가 그룹 활용, 델파이 등과 같은 정성적인 방법에 의존하고 있다. 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위해, 본 연구에서는 대표적인 정량적 분석인 특허분석을 활용하였다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 기술수명주기를 고려한 특허인용네트워크를 개발하여 기술로드맵 작성에 적용하고, 이를 통해 유망한 미개발 기술을 기획하는 것이다. 이를 위하여, 우선 특허데이터와 인용정보가 수집되고 이를 바탕으로 특허인용 네트워크가 작성된다. 둘째, 기술수명주기 및 특허출원연도를 고려하여 수명주기에서의 위치를 분석하고, 향후 기술개발기간이 추정된다. 기술진화를 보여주기 위해 하위 세부기술들은 그룹핑되어 상위기술을 설명하고 이는 기술로드맵에 포함되는 노드로서 지칭된다. 마지막으로 기술 층의 각 기술 노드들을 연결 짓고 개발기간을 추정하여 기술로드맵을 작성한다. 이 기술로드맵을 바탕으로 기술기획을 수행하기 위해 텍스트 마이닝을 적용하여 미개발 기술을 제시하고, 향후 개발될 필요가 있는 기술의 특성을 제안한다. 본 연구는 수소저장 기술을 선정하여 앞에서 제시된 방법과 과정을 설명하였다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Technology roadmap is a powerful tool that considers relationships of technology, product and market and referred as a supporting technology strategy and planning. There are numerous studies that have attempted to develop technology roadmap and case studies on specific technology areas. However, a number of studies have been dependant on brainstorming and discussion of expert group, delphi technique as qualitative analysis rather than systemic and quantitative analysis. To overcome the limitation, patent analysis considered as quite quantitative analysis is employed in this paper. Therefore, this paper proposes new technology roadmapping based on patent citation network considering technology life cycle and suggests planning for undeveloped technology but considered as promising. At first, patent data and citation information are collected and patent citation network is developed on the basis of collected patent information. Secondly, we investigate a stage of technology in the life cycle by considering patent application year and the technology life cycle, and duration of technology development is estimated. In addition, subsequent technologies are grouped as nodes of a super-level technology to show the evolution of the technology for the period. Finally, a technology roadmap is drawn by linking these technology nodes in a technology layer and estimating the duration of development time. Based on technology roadmap, technology planning is conducted to identify undeveloped technology through text mining and this paper suggests characteristics of technology that needs to be developed in the future. In order to illustrate the process of the proposed approach, technology for hydrogen storage is selected in this paper.

주제어

AI 본문요약
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문제 정의

Consequently, this paper aims to propose a new technology roadmapping based on patent citation network considering technology life cycle and to suggest technology planning through text mining.

제안 방법

The main objective of a proposed approach is to propose a new technology roadmapping and technology planning based on technology roadmap. First of all, a new technology roadmapping approach is developed on the basis of patent citation network through several steps using patent and citation information.
Therefore, this paper is distinguishable from existing studies. While the work of Yoon and Park [3] utilized keyword vectors to develop a patent network, the proposed approach in this research applied patent citation information, adding the dynamic dimension of patent application. Moreover, the approach provides the future trends of technology with emerging keywords, enabling this paper to be differentiated from the previous research of Jeong and Yoon that just drew a technology roadmap [22].

이론/모형

Third, a stage of selected technology in the life cycle is investigated, considering application year and technology life cycle. The life cycle of technology is inspected by using inner citing proportion and moving average method. Then, the lifetime of a technology is estimated to plan the duration of technology development through the technology life cycle.
Secondly, developing at the present or undeveloped technology is analyzed through text mining and the keywords implying characteristics of promising technology areas are extracted at the contents of technology level. The results of suggested approach can be evaluated quantitative and systematic roadmapping approach. Therefore, this paper is distinguishable from existing studies.

참고문헌 (22)

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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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