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[국내논문] 퍼지기법을 이용한 상수관로의 노후도예측 모델 연구
Deterioration Prediction Model of Water Pipes Using Fuzzy Techniques 원문보기

上下水道學會誌 = Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater, v.30 no.2, 2016년, pp.155 - 165  

최태호 (K-water Research Institute, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ,  최민아 (K-water Research Institute, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ,  이현동 (Environmental Engineering Research Division, Korea Institute of Construction Technology(KICT) and Department of Construction and Environment Engineering, University of Science and Technology(UST)) ,  구자용 (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul)

Abstract AI-Helper 아이콘AI-Helper

Pipe Deterioration Prediction (PDP) and Pipe Failure Risk Prediction (PFRP) models were developed in an attempt to predict the deterioration and failure risk in water mains using fuzzy technique and the markov process. These two models were used to determine the priority in repair and replacement, b...

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제안 방법

  • Based on Kleiner (2006)’s development of a reliable decision-making tool for the repair and replacement of deteriorated pipes based on fuzzy technique and the markov process, the present study used the PDP and Pipe Failure Risk Prediction (PFRP) models via the following three-stage process.
  • By focusing on the fact that volumetric water flowability is directly dependant on the size of the pipe diameter, this study adopted a subfactor of pipe diameter as the determinants for "predicted failure consequences"; more specifically, by relying on lost water volume in the case of pipe fracture (failure) and the number of households cut off for water supply by using fuzzy technique based on the 9 grades (from extremely low to extremely severe).
  • The deterioration of 32 water mains pipelines was assessed using data obtained from the analysis and investigation of multi-regional waterworks and industrial waterworks with respect to facility data, burial environment, pipe state, outer state, inner state, soil corrosivity, microbial characteristics, construction state, management state, historical data, physical strength, chemical composition, and water corrosion. Among these factors, deterioration assessment was carried out with pipelines and assessment indices that showed relatively suitable results and were readily assessable.
  • In the second stage, the PDP model was developed by using fuzzy deterioration to estimate the fuzzificated degree of deterioration in the above first stage, as well as the markov process and pipe ages. The values in deterioration velocity and remaining lifetime of the targeted 32 mains were calculated by controlling the PDP model in such a way as to minimize the summed value of the square of the difference between the predicted value and the actual measured value against fuzzy deterioration.
  • Therefore, this study aims to develop the water pipe deterioration prediction model using the fuzzy technique and markov process by Kleiner(2006) and to examine its applicability.
  • 2 is changed. Using this method, PDP modeling was finalized in the pertinent piping network so as to minimize the summed value of the square of the difference between the predicted value and actual measured value.

대상 데이터

  • The 32 pipelines were largely used for conveying raw water, treated water, or industrial water. The pipe material was CIP, DCIP, SP, or PC, and they were mostly large pipes with diameters ranging from 300mm to 2,200mm.

이론/모형

  • This study used a generalized fuzzy rule-set, as shown in Table 2. The proposed fuzzy rule-set, however, is fully modifiable based on empirical grounds.
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참고문헌 (15)

  1. Al Barqawi, H. and Zayed, T., 2006, Condition rating model for underground infrastructure sustainable water mains, J. Perform. Constr. Facil, 20(2), pp.126-135 

  2. Kleiner, Y. and Rajani, B., 2001a. Comprehensive review of structural deterioration of water mains: Physically based models, Urban Water, 3(3), pp.151-164 

  3. Kleiner, Y. and Rajani, B., 2001b. Comprehensive review of structural deterioration of water mains: Statistical models, Urban Water, 3(3), pp.131-150 

  4. Pandey, M.D., 1998. Probabilistic models for condition assessment of oil and gas pipelines, NDT & E International, 31(5), pp.349-358 

  5. Davis, P., Burn, S., Moglia, M. and Gould, S., 2007. A physical probabilistic model to predict failure rates in buried PVC pipelines, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 92(9), pp.1258-1266 

  6. Moglia, M., Davis, P. and Burn, S., 2008. Strong exploration of a cast iron pipe failure model, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 93(6), pp.885-896 

  7. Walski, T. M., 1987. Replacement rules for water mains, Journal of the American Water Works Association, 79(11), pp.33-37 

  8. Jacobs, P. and Karney, B., 1994. GIS development with application to cast iron main breakage rate, Proc., 2nd Int. Conf. on Water Pipeline Systems, BHR Group Ltd., Edinburgh, Scotland. 

  9. Kleiner, Y., 2001. Scheduling inspection and renewal of large infrastructure assets, Journal of infrastructure Systems, 7(4), pp.136-14 

  10. Kropp, I. and Baur, R., 2005. Integrated failure forecasting model for the strategic rehabilitation planning process, Water Science & Technology : Water Supply, 5(2), pp.1-8 

  11. Kleiner, Y., Rajani, B. B. and Sadiq, R., 2006. Modeling the deterioration and managing failure risk of buried critical infrastructure, National Research Council Canada, pp.294-306 

  12. Park, S. B., 2008. Development of a probability model for water main burst risks using the leakage type analysis methods, University of Seoul 

  13. Lim, K. Y., 2011. Assessment of the priorities for rehabilitation of water pipes using the fuzzy techniques, Pusan National University 

  14. Lee, M. R., 2010. A Study on deterioration evaluation model of water main using integrated PCA and ANN, University of Seoul 

  15. Yoon, J. H. et al., 2002. Deteriorated water main assessment and management manual, Ministry of Environment 

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