[논문]자영업이 국가경제에 미치는 영향

김우형

자영업이 국가경제에 미치는 영향
The Impact of Self-Employment on the National Economy 원문보기

JSBI : The journal of small business innovation = 기업가정신과 벤처연구, v.20 no.1, 2017년, pp.19 - 33

초록
AI-Helper

우리는 본 논문에서 자영업의 변화가 국민경제에 미치는 영향 분석을 통해 올바른 정책 방향을 제시하고자 한다. 즉, 자영업의 현황 및 자영업자 지원의 정책 방향을 제시하고자 한다. 우리는 변수들의 동태적 관계를 파악하기에 위해 VAR 모형을 사용하여 자영업 추이와 경시경제 변수 간의 상호 영향을 파악하였다. 분석 결과 자영업자 비중의 외생적 충격은 실질성장률에 대해 유의한 영향이 없으나, 고용 있는 자영업자와 고용 없는 자영업자로 구분하여 분석할 경우 고용 있는 자영업자의 비중의 증가는 실질성장에 긍정적 영향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 향후 연구에서는 자영업자 비중 변화에 대한 거시경제 변수의 단기적 효과를 추정하기 위해 분기별 자료 등으로 추가 분석을 시도할 필요가 있다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

In this paper, we suggest proper policy directions through an analysis onthe impact of changes in self-employment on the national economy. In other words, we intend to identify the current status of self-employment jobs and present policy directions for supporting self-employed workers. In order to grasp the dynamic relationship of variables, we used a VAR model to measure the impact of self-employment job fluctuations and macroeconomic variables on each other. The analysis results demonstrate that an exogenous shock to the ratio of self-employed workers does not show a significant impact on the nominal growth ratio. However, when the analysis was done separately on an exogenous shock to the ratio of self-employed workers with employees and without employees, an increase in the ratio of self-employed workers with employees showed a positive impact on nominal growth. On the other hand, an increase in the ratio of self-employed workers without employees showeda negative impact on nominal growth. In future studies, it will be necessary to do additional analysis on quarterly data to estimate the short-term impact of macroeconomic variables on changes in the ratio of self-employed workers.

주제어

AI 본문요약
AI-Helper

* AI 자동 식별 결과로 적합하지 않은 문장이 있을 수 있으니, 이용에 유의하시기 바랍니다.

문제 정의

First, we use the self-employment job statistics to conduct comparisons between the status of self-employment jobs in Korea and OECD member countries. This study examines the signs of the fall of self-employment and analyzes the change in the productivity of self-employment jobs. Second, we estimate the national economic impact of self-employment job fluctuations from macroeconomic perspectives.
Since previous studies have mainly dealt with overseas cases, there have hardly been any cases of empirically analyzing the comovement and impact of Korean self-employment job fluctuations and macroeconomic variables. This study intends to examine the causality between major self-employment job-related variables and macroeconomic variables such as GDP and unemployment. The impact of self-employment job-related variables’ variability on macroeconomic variables is quantified to estimate the impact of self-employment jobs.

가설 설정

2) Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics and ^** is significant at the 5% level.
2) The lag length is set up to max lag 8 based on Schwarz information criterion.

제안 방법

In terms of the time-series trends of the main variables used in the analysis, it can be seen that some variables, such as the ratio of self-employed workers, tend to show time-series trends. In order to see this more clearly, a unit root test was performed. The analysis shows that it was unlikely to reject the null hypothesis that the ratio of selfemployed workers has a unit root.
If the variables used in the analysis are non-stationary data, a spurious regression problem may occur. In order to take this into consideration, a unit root test was performed. In terms of the time-series trends of the main variables used in the analysis, it can be seen that some variables, such as the ratio of self-employed workers, tend to show time-series trends.
In Korea, Ryu and Choi (1999)’s analysis is the beginning of the relevant self-employment research that seeks self-employment characteristic and the process of change using Statistics Korea’s materials. In these studies, the status of self-employment jobs was analyzed in regard to the comovement of self-employment jobs with macroeconomic variables in terms of activation of entrepreneurship from the econometric viewpoint by using VAR (vector autoregressive) model and other similar methods. Previous research results show that there is a negative Granger Causality between the self-employment job activation and the unemployment ratio and that there is either no correlation or weak pro-cyclicality between the self-employment job activation and real GDP.
In other words, self-employed workers under OECD standards include employers, own-account workers and members of producers’ cooperative along with unpaid family workers. In this study, the KOSTAT definition of selfemployment jobs was applied but other statistical data are used as needed.

이론/모형

In order to grasp the dynamic relationship of variables, we use a VAR model to grasp the impact of self-employment job fluctuations and macroeconomic variables on each other (Sims, 1980).
That is to say, the past figures of y, was able to explain a certain part of x. The impact of an exogenous shock to self-employment job-related variables on macroeconomic variables in the dynamic structural formula was analyzed by means of the Impulse Response Analysis. The number of self-employed workers and the percentage of self-employed workers in the KOSTAT (2016b) “Economically Active Population Survey” are used as the variables in the analysis.

성능/효과

The analysis shows that it is possible to reject that each first difference variable (i.e., the amount of the change compared to the previous period) has a unit root at a 5% significance level. In order to solve the problem caused by the non-stationariness, the variable of the ratio of self-employed workers was analyzed by using the amount of the change compared to the previous period.
In order to see this more clearly, a unit root test was performed. The analysis shows that it was unlikely to reject the null hypothesis that the ratio of selfemployed workers has a unit root. Therefore, it was regarded as non-stationary data.
The results of the Impulse Response Analysis showed that an exogenous shock to the ratio of total self-employed workers does not show a significant impact on Gini’s coefficient.
The results of the VAR model estimation showed that the impact of the change in the unemployment ratio on the ratio of selfemployed workers is only significant in the case of the impact of the ratio of self-employed workers with employees and the unemployment ratio on each other. It is similar to the two cases above.
The results of the estimation showed that the impact of the ratio of self-employed workers on Gini’s coefficient is only significant in the case of self-employed workers with workers with employees and Gini’s coefficient, all mutual causality is significant, while all mutual causality between the ratio of self-employed workers without employees and Gini’s coefficient is not significant.

후속연구

In future studies, it will be necessary to do additional analysis on quarterly data in order to estimate the short-term impact of macroeconomic variables on the change in the ratio of self-employed workers.

내보내기 구분	파일저장 인쇄 메일전송
구성항목	기본정보 상세정보 관리번호, 논문명, 저널/프로시딩명, 저자 , 발행년, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, 발행기관 관리번호, 논문명, 대등논문명, 저자 , 저널/프로시딩명, 발행기관, 발행년, 발행언어, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, ISBN, ISSN, 주제분야, 키워드, 초록(한글), 초록(영문), 저자(소속기관)
저장형식	Text(ASCII format) Excel format RefWorks Direct Export RIS format (for Reference Manager, ProCite, EndNote), Scholar's Aids, Mendeley
메일정보	받는사람 (필수) @ 보내는사람 (선택) @ 제목 내용 KISTI 검색결과 이메일 서비스
안내	총 건의 자료가 검색되었습니다. 다운받으실 자료의 인덱스를 입력하세요. (1-10,000) 검색결과의 순서대로 최대 10,000건 까지 다운로드가 가능합니다. 데이타가 많을 경우 속도가 느려질 수 있습니다.(최대 2~3분 소요) 다운로드 파일은 UTF-8 형태로 저장됩니다. 파일의 내용이 제대로 보이지 않을실 때는 웹브라우저 상단의 보기 -> 인코딩 -> 자동선택 여부를 확인하십시오. ~ Text(ASCII format) Excel format

연합인증

자영업이 국가경제에 미치는 영향
The Impact of Self-Employment on the National Economy 원문보기

초록
AI-Helper

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

주제어

AI 본문요약
AI-Helper

문제 정의

가설 설정

제안 방법

이론/모형

성능/효과

후속연구

이 논문을 인용한 문헌

저자의 다른 논문 :

관련 콘텐츠

원문 보기

원문 URL 링크

이 논문과 함께 이용한 콘텐츠

AI-Helper ※ AI-Helper는 오픈소스 모델을 사용합니다.

선택된 텍스트

연합인증

자영업이 국가경제에 미치는 영향 The Impact of Self-Employment on the National Economy 원문보기

초록 용어보기논문에서 용어와 풀이말을 자동 추출한 결과로, 시범 서비스 중입니다. AI-Helper

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

주제어

AI 본문요약 엑셀 다운로드 AI-Helper

문제 정의

가설 설정

제안 방법

이론/모형

성능/효과

후속연구

이 논문을 인용한 문헌

저자의 다른 논문 :

김우형 (6)

관련 콘텐츠

원문 보기

원문 URL 링크

이 논문과 함께 이용한 콘텐츠

AI-Helper ※ AI-Helper는 오픈소스 모델을 사용합니다.

선택된 텍스트

자영업이 국가경제에 미치는 영향
The Impact of Self-Employment on the National Economy 원문보기

초록
AI-Helper

AI 본문요약
AI-Helper