우리나라는 세계에서 가장 빠르게 고령화 사회로 접어들고 있다. 본 연구는 급속한 고령화 사회를 대비하기 위하여 고령 해기사와 해양사고와의 관계를 분석하여 고령화되어 가는 해기사 정책에 기초 자료를 제공하고자 한다. 수집한 데이터는 2006년부터 2016년까지 11년간이며, 부원을 제외한 해기사만을 대상으로 현황 조사 및 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 연구결과 첫째, 60대 이상의 고령 해기사의 취업자 수는 지난 11년 동안 약 2.7배 증가하여 증가 추이 폭이 다른 연령대 보다 큰 것으로 조사되었다. 둘째, 해양사고로 징계를 받은 고령 해기사사는 약 2.6배 증가 추이를 보였다. 셋째, 고령 해기사는 비고령 해기사보다는 해양사고율이 약 1.5배 높은 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 고령 해기사의 취업자 수와 징계자 수 간에 회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 고령 해기사 취업자 수가 고령 해기사 징계자 수를 설명하는 설명력의 정도가 75.1 %로 나타났다. 고령화 사회가 신속히 진행될 수 있으므로 고령 해기사 면허 갱신 교육과 갱신 자격을 강화하는 규정 등의 정책이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.
우리나라는 세계에서 가장 빠르게 고령화 사회로 접어들고 있다. 본 연구는 급속한 고령화 사회를 대비하기 위하여 고령 해기사와 해양사고와의 관계를 분석하여 고령화되어 가는 해기사 정책에 기초 자료를 제공하고자 한다. 수집한 데이터는 2006년부터 2016년까지 11년간이며, 부원을 제외한 해기사만을 대상으로 현황 조사 및 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 연구결과 첫째, 60대 이상의 고령 해기사의 취업자 수는 지난 11년 동안 약 2.7배 증가하여 증가 추이 폭이 다른 연령대 보다 큰 것으로 조사되었다. 둘째, 해양사고로 징계를 받은 고령 해기사사는 약 2.6배 증가 추이를 보였다. 셋째, 고령 해기사는 비고령 해기사보다는 해양사고율이 약 1.5배 높은 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 고령 해기사의 취업자 수와 징계자 수 간에 회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 고령 해기사 취업자 수가 고령 해기사 징계자 수를 설명하는 설명력의 정도가 75.1 %로 나타났다. 고령화 사회가 신속히 진행될 수 있으므로 고령 해기사 면허 갱신 교육과 갱신 자격을 강화하는 규정 등의 정책이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.
The Republic of Korea has a more rapidly aging society than any other country in the world. In order to prepare for the attendant challenges, this research provides basic data for policies related to aging ship officers, analyzing the relationship between elderly ship officers and marine accidents. ...
The Republic of Korea has a more rapidly aging society than any other country in the world. In order to prepare for the attendant challenges, this research provides basic data for policies related to aging ship officers, analyzing the relationship between elderly ship officers and marine accidents. The data used here spans 11 years, from 2006 to 2016, and the survey and regression analysis were conducted only on ship officers, excluding crew. As a result of this research, first, it was found that the number of employed ship officers older than 60 has increased 2.7 times over the past 11 years and the range of this increase was larger than for other age categories. Second, the number of elderly ship officers disciplined for marine accidents increased by around 2.6 times. Third, elderly ship officers had around 1.5 times the rate of marine accidents compared to non-elderly ship officers. Fourth, as a result of conducting regression analysis between the number of employed elderly ship officers and the number of officers disciplined, the degree of explanatory power of elderly ship officers for disciplined officials was 75.1%. Since our society will age quickly, policies such as license renewal education for elderly ship officers and regulation enforcing the quality of renewal will be needed.
The Republic of Korea has a more rapidly aging society than any other country in the world. In order to prepare for the attendant challenges, this research provides basic data for policies related to aging ship officers, analyzing the relationship between elderly ship officers and marine accidents. The data used here spans 11 years, from 2006 to 2016, and the survey and regression analysis were conducted only on ship officers, excluding crew. As a result of this research, first, it was found that the number of employed ship officers older than 60 has increased 2.7 times over the past 11 years and the range of this increase was larger than for other age categories. Second, the number of elderly ship officers disciplined for marine accidents increased by around 2.6 times. Third, elderly ship officers had around 1.5 times the rate of marine accidents compared to non-elderly ship officers. Fourth, as a result of conducting regression analysis between the number of employed elderly ship officers and the number of officers disciplined, the degree of explanatory power of elderly ship officers for disciplined officials was 75.1%. Since our society will age quickly, policies such as license renewal education for elderly ship officers and regulation enforcing the quality of renewal will be needed.
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제안 방법
Afterward, it is necessary to analyze which causation and interrelation personal and circumstantial factors related directly to the elderly ship officers’ marine accidents have, and to develop the model of elderly ship officers’ marine accidents based on this analysis.
Because of the limitation of collected data, this research has a limitation that it wasn’t analyzed according to the types of marine accidents such as collision, grounding, and so on.
This research examined the present condition according to the age groups by using the data about the number of employed ship officers and that of the disciplined related to accidents, and divided it into elderly and non-elderly ship officers. In addition, the ratio of marine accidents was indicated by comparing the number of the employed ship officers with that of the disciplined.
대상 데이터
As for the data for this analysis, the current condition of employed crews with the age groups from Korea seafarers’ welfare and employment center and the current data for the number of the disciplined for marine accidents with the age groups from Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal were used.
The current condition of employed crews with the age groups was analyzed only for the ship officers excluding the crews. The data has been collected for 11 years from 2006 to 2016, and the data before 2006 was excluded in the analysis as missing data.
데이터처리
Finally, the relationship between the number of employed elderly ship officers and that of the disciplined was analyzed, and regression analysis was conducted.
성능/효과
As a result of regression analysis, it was indicated that the number of employed elderly ship officers gave a meaningful effect (p<.05) on that of disciplined elderly ship officers (Table 4), and it was shown that the larger the number of employed elderly ship officers was (B=0.015), the larger that of disciplined elderly ship officers was (Table 5).
The results of this analysis were as follows. First, it was found out that the number of employed ship officers over 60s had been increased around 2.7 times for the past 11 years and the range of increasing trend was larger than those of other ages, and that of non-elderly ship officers was decreased around 0.8 times. Second, it was represented that the number of elderly ship officers disciplined for marine accidents showed increase trend of around 2.
05) with that of disciplined elderly ship officers. For this, it was analyzed that the number of disciplined elderly ship officers also increased because elderly ship officers relatively increased as non-elderly ship officers decreased. It was not analyzed that the number of employed elderly ship officers had a meaningful relationship with that of disciplined non-elderly ship officers.
5 times of marine accident rate more than non-elderly ship officers. Fourth, as the result of conducting regression analysis between the number of employed elderly ship officers and that of the disciplined, it was found out that the number of employed elderly ship officers had a significant effect on that of disciplined elderly ship officers, and explanatory power in which the number of employed elderly ship officers explained that of disciplined elderly ship officers was indicated as 75.1 %.
However, it could be affirmed that the increasing number of employed elderly ship officers had a great effect on that of the disciplined elderly ship officers because the number of employed elderly ship officers and that of the disciplined elderly was indicated as 0.866 of a positive correlation coefficient (p<.01).
It was found out that the number of elderly ship officers in 2016 compared to 2006 showed 4,508 persons’ increase representing the difference of around 2.7 %, but that of non-elderly ship officers between 20s and 50s decreased by 2,862 persons showing the difference of around 0.8 %.
8 times. Second, it was represented that the number of elderly ship officers disciplined for marine accidents showed increase trend of around 2.6 times, but that of non-elderly ship officers showed decrease trend of around 0.7 times. It was analyzed that the number of the disciplined increased as that of employed elderly ship officers over 60s increased.
It was analyzed that the number of the disciplined increased as that of employed elderly ship officers over 60s increased. Third, it was indicated that elderly ship officers had around 1.5 times of marine accident rate more than non-elderly ship officers. Fourth, as the result of conducting regression analysis between the number of employed elderly ship officers and that of the disciplined, it was found out that the number of employed elderly ship officers had a significant effect on that of disciplined elderly ship officers, and explanatory power in which the number of employed elderly ship officers explained that of disciplined elderly ship officers was indicated as 75.
후속연구
Therefore, in order to prepare for the rapidly-aging society, this research intends to provide basic data for the policy of ship officers who became aged, by conducting regression analysis of the relationship between the elderly ship officers and marine accidents.
Meanwhile, the age classifications of the data are different from each other because the current condition of the disciplined for marine accidents with the age groups collected in this research is the data totalized from 61 and the current condition of employed seafarers with the age groups is the data totalized from 60. Therefore, this research intends to classify and analyze people over 60 as the elderly, assuming that the data of the disciplined for marine accidents with the age groups is the one totalized from 60.
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