[논문]SPI와 EDI를 이용한 충남 서부지역 과거와 미래 가뭄 평가

안효원; 하규철

doi:10.7857/jsge.2020.25.4.014

SPI와 EDI를 이용한 충남 서부지역 과거와 미래 가뭄 평가
Evaluation of the past and future droughts using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) in the western region of Chungnam Province 원문보기

지하수토양환경 = Journal of soil and groundwater environment, v.25 no.4, 2020년, pp.14 - 27

안효원 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경연구본부 지하수연구센터) , 하규철 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경연구본부 지하수연구센터)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The drought has occurred from the past, and has caused a lot of damage. It is important to analyze the past droughts and predict them in the future. In this study, the temperature and precipitation of the past and the future from climate change RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were analyzed for Seosan and Boryeong in the western region of Chungnam Province, which is considered as a drought-prone area on the Korean Peninsula. Comparing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) based on the past droughts, EDI was verified to be more suitable for the drought assessment. According to RCP 4.5, the frequency and intensity of droughts in the early future (2021~2060) were expected to increase and to be stronger. Particularly, severe droughts were predicted for a long time from 2022 to 2026, and from 2032 to 2039. Droughts were expected to decrease in the late future (2061~2100). From RCP 8.5, drought occurrences were predicted to increase, but the intensity of the droughts were expected to decrease in the future. As a result of evaluation of the frequencies of droughts by seasons, the region would be most affected by fall drought in the early future and by spring drought in the late future according to RCP 4.5. In the case of RCP 8.5, the seasonal effects were not clearly distinguished. These results suggest that droughts in the future do not have any tendency, but continue to occurr as in the past. Therefore, the measures and efforts to secure water resources and reinforcement of water supply facilities should be prepared to cope with droughts.

주제어

표/그림 (14)

그림 Fig. 1. The location of the meteorological weather station for the drought assessment in the western region of Chungnam Province.
표 Table 1. Recent droughts in Chungnam Province
그림 Fig. 2. The temperature variation according to the past and the RCP scenarios.
표 Table 2. The classifications of drought intensity by SPI and EDI
그림 Fig. 3. The precipitation variation according to the past and the RCP scenarios.
표 Table 3. The precipitation trend according to the past and the RCP scenarios from annual time series data
그림 Fig. 4. The time-series of EDI and SPI 3, SPI 12 from 2012 to 2017.
표 Table 4. The precipitation trend according to the past and the RCP scenarios from 5 year moving average
표 Table 5. The comparisons between drought and each drought index from 2013 to 2017 according to the EDI and SPI 3, SPI 12
그림 Fig. 5. The time-series of EDI from 1981 to 2019.
표 Table 6. Drought frequency trend according to drought intensity
그림 Fig. 6. The time-series of EDI from RCP 4.5.
그림 Fig. 7. The time-series of EDI from RCP 8.5.
표 Table 7. Seasonal drought frequency trend according to drought intensity

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