[논문]WRF 모형에서 한반도 여름철 강수 예측에 모의영역이 미치는 영향

김형규; 이혜영; 김주완; 이승우; 부경온; 이송이

doi:10.14191/atmos.2021.31.1.017

WRF 모형에서 한반도 여름철 강수 예측에 모의영역이 미치는 영향
Effect of Model Domain on Summer Precipitation Predictions over the Korean Peninsula in WRF Model 원문보기

대기 = Atmosphere, v.31 no.1, 2021년, pp.17 - 28

김형규 (공주대학교 대기과학과) , 이혜영 (공주대학교 대기과학과) , 김주완 (공주대학교 대기과학과) , 이승우 (기상청 수치모델링센터 수치자료응용과) , 부경온 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부) , 이송이 (공주대학교 대기과학과)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

We investigated the impact of domain size on the simulated summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two different domains are integrated up to 72-hours from 29 June 2017 to 28 July 2017 when the Changma front is active. The domain sizes are adopted from previous RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) and current LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration, while other model configurations are fixed identically. We found that the larger domain size showed better prediction skills, especially in precipitation forecast performance. This performance improvement is particularly noticeable over the central region of the Korean Peninsula. Comparisons of physical aspects of each variable revealed that the inflow of moisture flux from the East China Sea was well reproduced in the experiment with a large model domain due to a more realistic North Pacific high compared to the small domain experiment. These results suggest that the North Pacific anticyclone could be an important factor for the precipitation forecast during the summer-time over the Korean Peninsula.

주제어

표/그림 (11)

그림 Fig. 2. Domain configurations used for the model experiments. Number at the top-left corner indicate horizontal resolution and the number of grids in the domain. Both DM2L and DM2S are simulated using DM1 data for their lateral boundaries every 6 hours.
그림 Fig. 1. (a) Locations of KMA weather stations for ASOS (green) and AWS (orange). The blue dots are selected ten stations of ASOS which locate in large cities. (b, c) Cumulative daily precipitation for the ten selected stations. The black line indicates averaged precipitation of the selected ten stations.
표 Table 1. Summary of the WRF model configuration.
표 Table 2. Contingency table for verification of 1-day accumulated rain.
그림 Fig. 3. Averaged cumulative daily precipitation for the ten selected stations. Each result indicates ASOS (black), DM2L (green), and DM2S (blue) for a 48-hr forecast. The gray shade shows the analysis period, which is the overlapping period between ASOS and model experiments.
그림 Fig. 4. Horizontal distribution of accumulated precipitation from 2 July to 29 July for 2017. (a) ASOS, (b-d) 24, 48, 72-hr forecasts from DM2L, (e) AWS, and (f-h) 24, 48, 72-hr forecasts from DM2S.
그림 Fig. 5. (a-c) Threat score (solid line) and equivalent threat score (dashed line) of 1-day accumulated precipitation for 24, 48, 72-hr forecasts. (d-f) The same as in the upper panel but for bias score. Results for DM2L and DM2S indicate green and blue, respectively. The rate of samples (in %) for each threshold is shown at the top of the figure.
그림 Fig. 6. Horizontal distribution of 900-hPa mixing ratio averaged from 2 July to 29 July 2017 for (a) ERA-Interim, (b-d) 24, 48, 72-hr forecasts of DM2L, and (e-g) DM2S. (h-j) Differences between DM2L and DM2S (DM2L-DM2S) for 24, 48, 72-hr forecasts are also shown.
그림 Fig. 7. Same as Fig. 6, but for VIMT (shaded) and 850-hPa wind (vector). Blue line indicates geopotential height for 1520 gpm at 850-hPa.
그림 Fig. 8. Same as Fig. 6, but for geopotential height at 900-hPa.
그림 Fig. 9. (a) Same as Fig. 8a. (b) 900-hPa geopotential height for the area B (white box) in Fig. 9a. (c) Scatter plot for VIMT and gradient of geopotential height in the area A (black box). Each dot indicates the result of a 1-day case for ERA-Interim (gray), ERA5 (orange), 24, 48, 72-hr forecasts of DM2L (green), and DM2S (blue). The plus and square dot represents averaged results for reanalysis and forecast data. Each line indicates the regression result for each experiment (dashed) and averaged results for a domain (solid). The correlation coefficient between meridional VIMT and gradient of geopotential height is shown in brackets.

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