[논문]북극진동과 한반도 지표기온 관계의 장기변동성

전예준; 송강현; 손석우

doi:10.14191/atmos.2021.31.1.061

북극진동과 한반도 지표기온 관계의 장기변동성
Decadal Changes in the Relationship between Arctic Oscillation and Surface Air Temperature over Korea 원문보기

대기 = Atmosphere, v.31 no.1, 2021년, pp.61 - 71

전예준 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) , 송강현 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) , 손석우 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and surface air temperature (SAT) over Korea is re-examined using the long-term observation and reanalysis datasets for the period of December 1958 to February 2020. Over the entire period, Korean SAT is positively correlated with the AO index with a statistically significant correlation coefficient, greater than 0.4, only in the boreal winter. It is found that this correlation is not static but changes on the decadal time scale. While the 15-year moving correlations are as high as 0.6 in 1980s and 1990s, they are smaller than 0.3 in the other decades. It is revealed that this decadal variation is partly due to the AO structure change over the North Pacific. In the period of 1980s-1990s, the AO-related sea level pressure fluctuation is strong and well defined over the western North Pacific and the related temperature advection effectively changes the winter SAT over Korea. In the other periods, the AO-related circulation anomaly is either weak or mostly confined within the central North Pacific. This result suggests that Korean SAT-AO index relationship, which becomes insignificant in recent decades is highly dependent on mean flow change in the North Pacific.

주제어

표/그림 (8)

그림 Fig. 1. Correlation coefficients of (a) SLP anomaly and (b) SAT anomaly to the AO-index for 1958/59~2019/2020 winter. Contour interval is 0.2 and zero line is omitted. Values that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, based on Student's t-test, are shaded.
그림 Fig. 2. The time series of (a) AO-index and (b) SAT anomaly over Korea for 1958/59~2019/2020 winter. Black lines indicate 15-year moving averaged values.
그림 Fig. 3. Correlation coefficients of SAT anomaly from the KMA observation to the AO-index during (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) fall. (e-h) Same as (a-d) but for Japanese 55-year reanalysis SAT anomaly averaged over Korea (32.50°N-38.75°N, 123.75°E-30.00°E). Slashed (crossed) values indicate the correlations that are statistically significant at the 95% (99%) confidence level, based on Student's t-test.
그림 Fig. 4. The 15-year moving correlation coefficients of winter SAT anomaly over Korea to the AO-index. Dotted values (dashed lines) indicate the correlation coefficients (critical values) that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, based on Student's t-test.
그림 Fig. 5. Correlation coefficients of winter SLP anomaly to the AO-index during the winters in (a) P1 (1958/59~1972/73), (b) P2 (1981/82~1995/96), and (c) P3 periods (2005/06~2019/20). (d-f) Same as (a-c) but for winter SAT anomaly. Shaded values indicate the correlations that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, based on Student's t-test.
그림 Fig. 6. Linear regression coefficients of winter SLP anomaly to the AO-index in (a) P1 (1958/59~1972/73), (b) P2 (1981/ 82~1995/96), and (c) P3 periods (2005/06~2019/20). Shaded values indicate the linear regression coefficients that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, based on Student's t-test. Statistically significant surface winds are also indicated by green arrows.
그림 Fig. 7. Time series of the intensity (red line) and central longitude (blue line) of the linear relationship between AO-index and SLP anomaly over the North Pacific based on the 15-year moving linear regression.
표 Table 1. The intensity and central longitude of the linear relationship between AO-index and SLP anomaly over the North Pacific.

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