[논문]시스템다이내믹스 모델을 이용한 농업용수 시스템의 기후 복원력 평가

최은혁

doi:10.5389/ksae.2021.63.4.065

시스템다이내믹스 모델을 이용한 농업용수 시스템의 기후 복원력 평가
Climate Resilience Assessment of Agricultural Water System Using System Dynamics Model 원문보기

한국농공학회논문집 = Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, v.63 no.4, 2021년, pp.65 - 86

최은혁 (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This study aims at testing a hypothesis that the resilience of agricultural water systems is characterized by trade-offs and synergies of effects from climate and socioeconomic change. To achieve this, an Agricultural Water System Climate Resilience Assessment (ACRA) framework is established to evaluate comprehensive resilience of an agricultural water system to the combined impacts of the climate and socioeconomic changes with a case study in South Korea. Understanding dynamic behaviors of the agricultural water systems under climate and socioeconomic drivers is not straightforward because the system structure includes complex interactions with multiple feedbacks across components in water and agriculture sectors and climate and socioeconomic factors, which has not been well addressed in the existing decision support models. No consideration of the complex interactions with feedbacks in a decision making process may lead to counterintuitive and untoward evaluation of the coupled impacts of the climate and socioeconomic changes on the system performance. In this regard, the ACRA framework employs a System Dynamics (SD) approach that has been widely used to understand dynamics of the complex systems with the feedback interactions. In the ACRA framework applied to the case study in South Korea, the SD model works along with HOMWRS simulation. The ACRA framework will help to explore resilience-based strategies with infrastructure investment and management options for agricultural water systems.

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표/그림 (25)

그림 Fig. 1 Four domains in axiomatic design process (Suh 2001)
표 Table 1 FRs and DPs for ACRA framework
그림 Fig. 2 Components and their relationships in ACRA framework
그림 Fig. 3 Case study area (Seongju agricultural water system)
표 Table 2 Classification of climate data from RCP scenarios
그림 Fig. 4 Change in future annual precipitation in Seongju-gun
그림 Fig. 5 Change in future annual temperature in Seongju-gun
그림 Fig. 6 Change in future annual evapotranspiration in Seongju-gun
그림 Fig. 7 Change in future socio-economic factors in Seongju-gun
그림 Fig. 8 Change in future reservoir inflow to Seongju dam
그림 Fig. 9 Change in unit irrigation demand for paddy crop
그림 Fig. 10 Change in unit irrigation demand for field crop
그림 Fig. 11 Failure occurrence of Seongju agricultural water system in the future periods
그림 Fig. 12 Dynamic hypothesis for Seongju agricultural water system
그림 Fig. 13 SD model for Seongju agricultural water system
그림 Fig. 14 Functionality variation of Seongju water system in historical period
그림 Fig. 15 Water balance of Seongju dam reservoir
표 Table 3 Classification of system performance analysis
그림 Fig. 16 Variation of system functionality under climate and socio-economic impacts
그림 Fig. 17 Reliability of Seongju agricultural water system
그림 Fig. 18 Resilience of Seongju agricultural water system
그림 Fig. 19 Vulnerability of Seongju agricultural water system
표 Table 4 Uncertainty components and their variation
그림 Fig. 20 Uncertainty of system performances for short-, mid-, and long-term period under RCP4.5 scenario
그림 Fig. 21 Uncertainty of system performances for short-, mid-, and long-term period under RCP 8.5 scenario

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표제어: PCR

동의어: Packet Collision Rate

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