[논문]기후변화에 따른 한국꼬리치레도롱뇽(Onychodactylus koreanus)의 분포 예측에 대한 연구

이수연; 최서윤; 배양섭; 서재화; 장환진; 도민석

doi:10.13047/kjee.2021.35.5.480

기후변화에 따른 한국꼬리치레도롱뇽(Onychodactylus koreanus)의 분포 예측에 대한 연구
Distribution Prediction of Korean Clawed Salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) according to the Climate Change 원문보기

한국환경생태학회지 = Korean journal of environment and ecology, v.35 no.5, 2021년, pp.480 - 489

이수연 (인천대학교 생명과학부) , 최서윤 (국립생물자원관 동물자원과) , 배양섭 (인천대학교 생명과학부) , 서재화 (국립생물자원관 동물자원과) , 장환진 (국립생태원 외래생물연구팀) , 도민석 (국립생물자원관 동물자원과)

초록
AI-Helper

기후변화는 동·식물의 서식지와 개체군을 감소, 소멸시키며, 생물다양성 보존에 위협이 되고 있다. 특히, 도롱뇽과 (Hynobiidae)에 속한 종들은 다른 분류군들에 비해 행동권이 작고, 분산 능력이 극히 제한되기 때문에 기후변화에 매우 취약한 분류군이다. 본 연구에서는 한국꼬리치레도롱뇽(Onychodactylus koreanus)의 관찰지점과 종 분포 모델링 기법을 바탕으로 국내 서식하고 있는 한국꼬리치레도롱뇽의 주요 분포지역과 서식특성을 파악하고 기후변화에 따른 분포변화를 예측하였다. 그 결과 고도가 그들의 분포에 가장 주요한 영향을 끼친 환경변수로 확인되었으며, 강원도와 경상북도와 같은 고도가 높은 산림 지역에 밀집된 분포 형태를 보였다. 이처럼 종 분포 모델에서 예측된 공간적 분포 범위와 서식특성은 선행 조사 결과를 충분히 포함하고 있었다. 기후변화에 따른 분포변화를 확인한 결과, 한국꼬리치레도롱뇽은 현재 분포 범위에 비해 RCP4.5 시나리오에서 62.96% 가 감소할 것으로, RCP8.5 시나리오에서는 98.52% 감소할 것으로 예측되어 기후변화로 인해 서식 적합 공간들이 급격하게 감소하는 것으로 확인되었다. 모델의 AUC값은 현재에서 0.837, RCP4.5에서 0.832, RCP8.5에서 0.807로 높게 측정되었다. 이러한 결과들은 기후변화로 인해 영향을 받는 양서류의 보전 대책 수립에 중요한 기초자료가 될 수 있을 것이다. 추후, 한국꼬리치레도롱뇽의 생활사에 따른 서식지 특성과 미세한 서식 요인들이 반영된 다양한 분석기법을 통한 추가적인 연구가 수행된다면 종 감소에 영향을 끼치는 주요환경 요인들을 밝혀낼수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Climate change poses great threats to wildlife populations by decreasing their number and destroying their habitats, jeopardizing biodiversity conservation. Asiatic salamander (Hynobiidae) species are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their small home range and limited dispersal ability. Thus, this study used one salamander species, the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus), as a model species and examined their habitat characteristics and current distribution in South Korea to predict its spatial distribution under climate change. As a result, we found that altitude was the most important environmental factor for their spatial distribution and that they showed a dense distribution in high-altitude forest regions such as Gangwon and Gyeongsanbuk provinces. The spatial distribution range and habitat characteristics predicted in the species distribution models were sufficiently in accordance with previous studies on the species. By modeling their distribution changes under two different climate change scenarios, we predicted that the distribution range of the Korean clawed salamander population would decrease by 62.96% under the RCP4.5 scenario and by 98.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating a sharp reduction due to climate change. The model's AUC value was the highest in the present (0.837), followed by RCP4.5 (0.832) and RCP8.5 (0.807). Our study provides a basic reference for implementing conservation plans for amphibians under climate change. Additional research using various analysis techniques reflecting habitat characteristics and minute habitat factors for the whole life cycle of Korean-tailed salamanders help identify major environmental factors that affect species reduction.

주제어

표/그림 (7)

그림 Figure 1. The topographic map of South Korea. Red points represent the occurrence of the Korean clawed salamander (O. koreanus).
그림 Figure 2. (A) Kernel density plot of the occurrence of the Korean clawed salamander (O. koreanus) according to the altitude of South Korea. (B) Bar graph of the occurrence of the Korean clawed salamander (O. koreanus) according to three habitat types in South Korea.
그림 Figure 3. The bar graph of average percentage contribution of each variable in the 10 Maximum Entropy model for Korean clawed salamander (O. koreanus) in the South Korea.
표 Table 1. The summary of species distribution models for Korean clawed salamander (O. koreanus) using the Maxent modelling
그림 Figure 4. The spatial prediction of the Korean clawed salamander (O. koreanus) distribution in South Korea. Different colors represent degrees of the occurrence probabilities of the Korean clawed salamander.
그림 Figure 5. Changes in spatial distribution of the Korean clawed salamander (O. koreanus) in South Korea following current(A), RCP4.5(B) and RCP8.5(C) scenario. Red cells represent stable distribution ranges.
표 Table 2. Predicted spatial information of the Korean clawed salamander (O. koreanus) distribution under the current and two future (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climatic conditions. Cell numbers represent their distribution ranges (with 2.5 arc-min unit per cell)

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