[논문]남한에서 기후변화에 따른 난아열대 목본식물, Myrica rubra와 Syzygium buxifolium의 잠재분포 변화 예측

임은영; 원현규; 원종서; 김다나; 조형진

doi:10.17820/eri.2022.9.4.282

남한에서 기후변화에 따른 난아열대 목본식물, Myrica rubra와 Syzygium buxifolium의 잠재분포 변화 예측
Prediction of Changes in Potential Distribution of Warm-Temperate and Subtropical Trees, Myrica rubra and Syzygium buxifolium in South Korea 원문보기

Ecology and resilient infrastructure, v.9 no.4, 2022년, pp.282 - 289

임은영 (국립산림과학원 난대.아열대산림연구소) , 원현규 (국립산림과학원 난대.아열대산림연구소) , 원종서 (주)에코앤지오) , 김다나 (주)에코앤지오) , 조형진 (주)에코앤지오)

초록
AI-Helper

한반도의 기후변화가 산림생태계에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것은 난아열대 산림생명자원 관리에 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 난아열대 목본식물인 소귀나무와 Syzygium buxifolium의 위치자료와 생물기후변수를 수집하고, 수집된 자료를 바탕으로 MaxEnt 모형에 적용하여 잠재분포 영역을 추정하였다. 소귀나무의 분포를 결정하는 주요 환경인자는 가장 따뜻한 분기의 강수와 온도 계절성이고, Syzygium buxifolium의 주요 환경인자는 가장 따듯한 분기의 강수와 가장 습한 분기의 강수로 나타났다. MaxEnt 모형의 행정구역별 결과, 소귀나무는 SSP2-4.5 기후변화 시나리오에서 4.6 - 17.7%의 면적 증가율을 보였고, SSP5-8.5 기후변화 시나리오에서 13.8 - 30.5%의 면적 증가율을 보였다. Syzygium buxifolium는 SSP2-4.5 기후변화 시나리오에서 4.8 - 32.2%, SSP5-8.5 기후변화 시나리오에서 12.9 - 48.6%의 면적 증가율을 보였다. 본 연구는 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 난대아열대 식물의 미래 잠재분포 영역을 확인하고 데이터베이스를 구축하는데 의의가 있다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Analyzing the impact of climate change on the Korean Peninsula on the forest ecosystem is important for the management of subtropical forest bioresources. In this study, we collected location data and bioclimatic variables of the warm-temperate woody plant species, Myrica rubra and Cyzygium buxifolium, and applied the MaxEnt model based on the collected data to estimate the potential distribution area. Precipitation and temperature seasonality in the warmest quarter were the main environmental factors that determined the distribution of M. rubra, and the main environmental factors for S. buxifolium were precipitation in the warmest quarter and precipitation in the wettest quarter. The results of the MaxEnt model by administrative district, the M. rubra showed an area increase rate of 4.6 - 17.7% in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 13.8 - 30.5% in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. S. buxifolium showed area increase rates of 4.8 - 32.2% in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 12.9 - 48.6% in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. This study is meaningful in establishing a database and identifying future potential distribution areas of warm and subtropical plants by applying climate change scenarios.

주제어

표/그림 (6)

표 Table 1. Bioclimatic variables selected to predict the potential distribution of the East Asian warm-temperate and subtropical trees
그림 Fig. 1. Environmental response curves of the top 10% environmental variables contributing to the species distribution model of Myrica rubra and Syzygium buxifolium. The red line represents the mean value by five iterations of the model, and the blue shading represents the standard deviation.
표 Table 2. Relative variable contributions to the MaxEnt model for Myrica rubra and Syzygium buxifolium. Values are averages of five repeated runs. Bold values indicate contribution ratios of greater than 10%
그림 Fig. 2. Predicted potential distribution of Myrica rubra and Syzygium buxifolium in South Korea under current (a) and future (2100) climatic conditions of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 (b) and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (c).
그림 Fig. 3. Predicted habitat suitability of Myrica rubra and Syzygium buxifolium in South Korea under present (a) and future (2100) climatic conditions of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 (b) and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (c).
표 Table 3. Percentage (%) of potential distribution area of Myrica rubra and Syzygium buxifolium to the total area of South Korean administrative districts under current and future (2100) climatic conditions of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

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