[논문]노후 장기공공임대주택의 경과 연수별 유지관리비 분석 및 예측 모형

정용찬; 김정훈; 현창택; 이상훈

doi:10.6106/kjcem.2022.23.3.083

[국내논문] 노후 장기공공임대주택의 경과 연수별 유지관리비 분석 및 예측 모형
The Analysis and Forecasting Model for Maintenance Costs Considering Elapsed Years of Old Long-Term Public Rental Housing 원문보기

한국건설관리학회논문집 = Korean journal of construction engineering and management, v.23 no.3, 2022년, pp.83 - 94

정용찬 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과) , 김정훈 (한국건설기술연구원) , 현창택 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과) , 이상훈 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과)

초록
AI-Helper

정부의 주거복지 로드맵(2017)에 따른 공공임대주택의 지속적인 증가, 장기공공임대주택의 노후화에 따른 시설 성능 개선 및 주거수준 향상 요구 등을 위한 시설물 유지관리비가 큰 폭으로 증가하여 재고주택 유지를 위한 공공임대사업자의 재정부담이 가중되고 있다. 그러나, 현재까지 노후 장기공공임대주택의 운영과정에서 시설물 수선종류 공사별, 내용연수 기간 경과 연수별로 집행되는 유지관리비 규모를 분석하는 객관적인 자료가 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구는 서울시에 위치한 33개 장기공공임대주택의 유지관리비 실적 자료를 바탕으로 경과 연수 14년에서 28년 기간의 집행 현황을 분석하였다. 또한, 경과 연수별 유지관리비를 '장기수선계획공사 및 국비지원사업[Y₁]', '계획수선공사 및 일반수선공사[Y₂]', '총 유지관리비[Y₃]'로 구분하여 예측 모형을 제안하였다. 본 연구는 공공임대사업자가 예산수립 단계에서 유지관리계획 수립과 공공임대주택의 지속 가능한 운영 계획수립을 위한 기초자료로 활용 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The number of public rental housing has increased according to the government's 「Housing Welfare Roadmap (2017)」, and facility maintenance costs for the demand of improvement of performance and residential standards due to the aging of long-term public housing are significantly increasing. Consequently, the financial burden of public housing rental business for maintaining stocked housing is aggravated. However, there is a lack of objective data to analyze the size of the maintenance costs that are executed by the type of repair work, and the elapsed years of the aged long-term public rental housing. This study analyzes the execution status of 33 long-term public rental housing complexes located in Seoul for 14 to 28 years of elapsed years based on the data of maintenance costs. In addition, this study proposes a model to predict the maintenance costs by elapsed years by dividing 'Long-term Repair Plan Work and Government-Funded Project [Y1]', 'Planned Repair Work and General & Unplanned Repair Work [Y2]', and 'Total maintenance costs [Y3]'. It is intended to be used as basic data for the establishment of the maintenance plan at the stage of setting up the budget and the establishment of the sustainable operation plan for public rental housing

주제어

표/그림 (21)

그림 Fig. 1. Maintenance concept diagram of multi-family housing
표 Table 1. Prior studies forecasting apartment maintenance costs
그림 Fig. 2. Budget establishment process of maintenance costs
표 Table 2. Type of repair work for facility maintenance
표 Table 3. Execution status by type of maintenance repair work (Cost: Nominal value, unit: million won)
그림 Fig. 3. The statue of total maintenance costs by year
그림 Fig. 4. The status of total maintenance costs by elapsed years
표 Table 4. Execution status by work type of maintenance repair items (Cost: Nominal value, unit: million won)
그림 Fig. 5. Forecasting model process of maintenance costs
표 Table 5. Influencing factors of maintenance costs in previous research
그림 Fig. 6. Trend line of maintenance costs for LRPW and GFP
표 Table 6. Influencing factors considering architectural characteristics of this study
표 Table 8. Maintenance execution costs by elapsed years of LRPW and GFP (Cost: Real value, unit: won/²(gross floor area))
표 Table 7. The number of complexes by elapsed years of LRPW and GFP
그림 Fig. 7. Trend line of maintenance costs for PRW and GURW
표 Table 9. Main project by elapsed years of LRPW and GFP
표 Table 10. Maintenance execution costs for each elapsed year of PRW and GURW (Cost: Real value, unit: won/m²(gross floor area))
그림 Fig. 8. Total maintenance costs trend line.
표 Table 11. Main projects by elapsed years of PRW
표 Table 12. Total maintenance execution costs by elapsed years (Cost: Real value, unit: won/m²(gross floor area))
표 Table 13. Quantitative verification results (Cost: Real value, unit: won/㎡(gross floor area))

참고문헌 (15)

Goodman, Jack. (2004). "Determinants of Operating Costs of Multifamily Rental Housing." Journal of Economics, 13, pp. 226-244.
Graduate School of Design. (2003). "Public Housing Operating Cost Study", Harvard University Final Report.
Kang, H.K., and Han, C.H. (2006). "An Empirical analysis of the Effect of Variables on Maintenance Expenses." Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, KJCEM, 7(6), pp. 185-192.
Kang, H.W., Won, Y.M., and Kim, Y.C,. (2010). "A Study on Long-Term Maintenance Costs and Elemental Maintenance Costs for Apartment Buildings." Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea, JAIK, 29(11), pp. 111-118.
Kim, S.H., and Sung H.S. (2012). "A Maintenance Cost Forecast According to Deterioration of Public Rental Housing." Journal of the Seoul Institute, 13(4), pp. 136-146.
Kim, S.R., Jin, R.Z., Hyun, C.T., and Cho, C.G. (2013). "Development of Operation & Maintenance Cost Estimation Model for Facility Management of Buildings." Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea, JAIK, 29(1), pp. 11-21.
Koo, K. J., Bae, C. J., Park, S. H., and Cho, D. H., (2017),. "Estimation of Maintenance Costs for Budget Planning based on Regression Analysis.", Autumn Annual Conference of AIK, AIK, 37(2), pp. 860-863.
Koo, S. K., Kim, J. H., Jun, I. Y., Yoon, Y. S., and Hyun, C. T., (2017),. "Estimation and Adjustment Model Considering Time Value of Money for Long-Term Maintenance Cost of Apartment House." Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, KJCEM, 18(3), pp. 12-21.

원문보기 상세보기
Land & Housing Institute (2016). A Study on the Strategic Management Methods through the Funding of Accumulation of Reserves for Long-Term Repairs of Apartment Houses.
Lee, H.J., Kim, S.H., Kim, D.H., and Cho., H.H. (2018). "Forecast of Repair and Maintenance Costs for Public Rental Housing." The Korea Institute of Building Construction, JKIBC, 18(6), pp. 621-631.
Lee, K.H., and Chae. C.U., (2016). "Repair Accumulation Cost for the Long-Term Repair Plan in Multifamily Housing Using the Forecasting Model of the Repair Cost." Korea Institute of Ecological Architecture and Environment Journal, KIEAE, 16(3). pp. 137-143.
Lee, K.H., and Chae. C.U. (2019). "Forecasting Model of the Maintenance Cost in the Governmental Research Building." Korea Institute of Ecological Architecture and Environment Journal, KIEAE, 19(36), pp. 107-122.
Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport, Central Multi-Family Housing Management Support Center. (2017). "Long-term Repair Plan Practice Guide Line." pp. 05.
National Assembly Research Service. (2020). "Public Rental Housing Supply Trends and Policy Tasks.", Legislative Policy Report, 65, pp. 51-53.
Springer, Thomas M. (1996). "Maintenance of Residential Rental Property: An Empirical Analysis." The Journal of Real Estate Research, 12, pp. 89-99.

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