[논문]기후변화 시나리오별 한강유역의 수계별 수온상승 가능성

김민희; 이정희; 성경희; 임철수; 황원재; 현승훈

doi:10.15681/kswe.2022.38.1.19

[국내논문] 기후변화 시나리오별 한강유역의 수계별 수온상승 가능성
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Temperature of the Streams in Han-River Basin 원문보기

한국물환경학회지 = Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, v.38 no.1, 2022년, pp.19 - 30

김민희 (환경부 한강유역환경청 측정분석과) , 이정희 (환경부 한강유역환경청 측정분석과) , 성경희 (환경부 한강유역환경청 측정분석과) , 임철수 (환경부 한강유역환경청 측정분석과) , 황원재 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) , 현승훈 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Climate change has increased the average air temperature. Rising air temperature are absorbed by water bodies, leading to increasing water temperature. Increased water temperature will cause eutrophication and excess algal growth, which will reduce water quality. In this study, long-term trends of air and water temperatures in the Han-river basin over the period of 1997-2020 were discussed to assess the impacts of climate change. Future (~2100s) levels of air temperature were predicted based on the climate change scenarios (Representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). The results showed that air and water temperatures rose at an average rate of 0.027℃ year-1 and 0.038℃ year-1 respectively, over the past 24 years (1997 to 2020). Future air temperatures under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 increased up to 0.32℃ 1.18℃, 2.14℃, and 3.51℃, respectively. An increasing water temperature could dissolve more minerals from the surrounding rock and will therefore have a higher electrical conductivity. It is the opposite when considering a gas, such as oxygen, dissolved in the water. Water temperature also governs the kinds of organisms that can live in rivers and lakes. Fish, insects, zooplankton, phytoplankton, and other aquatic species all have a preferred temperature range. As temperatures get too far above or below this preferred range, the number of individuals of the species decreases until finally there are none. Therefore, changes of water temperature that are induced by climate change have important implications on water supplies, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems of a watershed.

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표/그림 (8)

표 Table 1. Reliability evaluation (level of agreement) classification of climate change (ME, 2020)
그림 Fig. 1. Han-river Basin and locations of the monitored watershed sites. Four streams (Namhan-gang, Bukhan-gang, Han-gang, and Anseong-cheon) were obtained within Han-river Basin.
그림 Fig. 2. (A) Change in the annual average air and water temperatures over the period 1997~2020; (B) The relationship between air and water temperatures.
그림 Fig. 3. Change rate of monthly average temperature over the past 24 years (1997 to 2020).
그림 Fig. 4. Trend of monthly average air and water temperatures over the past 24 years (1997 to 2020).
그림 Fig. 5. Time series of air temperature under each of the extended RCP scenarios for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. Historical air temperature (black) covers the period 1997-2020, and the RCPs and extended RCPs are continued from 2021 and 2100. Time series of the annual global mean surface air temperature for RCP 2.6 (blue), RCP 4.5 (green), RCP 6.0 (orange), and RCP 8.5 (red).
표 Table 2. Predicted air temperatures for the period of 2021~2100, for four scenarios driven by CO₂ alone
그림 Fig. 6. Predicted air temperature under each of the extended RCP scenarios for (A) RCP 2.6, (B) RCP 4.5, (C) RCP 6.0, and (D) RCP 8.5 of the four streams (Han-gang (blue), Anseong-Cheon (red), Namhan-gang (pink), and Bukhan-gang (green)) obtained within the Han-river Basin.

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