[논문]HSPF 와 AEM3D를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 상사호 유역의 수질오염 부하 및 댐 내 수질 변화 특성 분석

고나연; 김재영; 서동일

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2022.55.11.877

HSPF 와 AEM3D를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 상사호 유역의 수질오염 부하 및 댐 내 수질 변화 특성 분석
Evaluation of water quality in the Sangsa Lake under climate change by combined application of HSPF and AEM3D 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.55 no.11, 2022년, pp.877 - 886

고나연 (충남대학교 환경IT융합공학과) , 김재영 (충남대학교 환경공학과) , 서동일 (충남대학교 환경공학과)

초록
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본 연구는 상사호(주암조절지)의 유량과 수질이 향후 기후변화에 따라 어떻게 변화하며 어떠한 대책이 필요한지에 대한 분석과 관리 대책을 수립하는 것을 지원하고자 수행되었다. 유역의 변화를 예측하기 위하여 HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) 와 호 내의 수질 예측하기 위해 AEM3D (Aquatic Ecosystem Model)를 연계하여 사용하였다. 기후변화 조건은 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)에 따른 AR5(5th Assessment Report)의 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5와 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 사용하였다. 기후변화 시나리오는 기상청에 의해 상사호 유역에 대한 상세화된 자료를 사용하였고, 2012년~2021년의 10년간의 기간에 대해 보정 및 검증 하고, 미래 상황의 예측을 위해 현재, 2025년~2036년, 2045년~2056년 그리고 2075년~2086년의 기간으로 구분하고 또한 연도별로 6월부터 8월까지의 여름철과 12월부터 2월까지의 겨울철에 대해 구분하여 분석하였다. 전체 모의 기간에 대한 상사호 유역의 유량은 산술 평균으로는 RCP 4.5보다 RCP 8.5 가 큰 것으로 나타났으며 TN, TP 또한 RCP 4.5에서 높은 경향을 나타내었다. 그러나 RCP 8.5에서 갈수기에는 오염물질의 유출이 감소하고, 여름철에는 오염물질의 유출이 증가하여 연간 오염물질 유출량이 홍수기에 집중되는 특성을 나타내었으며 이에 따른 대책이 필요할 것으로 분석된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This study was carried out to analyze how the flow and water quality of the Sangsa Lake (juam control basin) change according to future climate change and what countermeasures are needed. Aquatic Ecosystem Model) was used in conjunction. As climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of AR5 (5th Assessment Report) according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. For the climate change scenario, detailed data on the Sangsa Lake basin were used by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and after being evaluated as a correction and verification process for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021, the present, 2025-2036, 2045- The summer period from June to August and the winter period from December to February were analyzed separately for each year by dividing it into 2056 and 2075-2086. RCP 8.5 was higher than RCP 4.5 as an arithmetic mean for the flow rate of the watershed of the superior lake for the entire simulation period, and TN and TP also showed a tendency to be higher at RCP 4.5. However, in RCP 8.5, the outflow of pollutants decreased during the dry season and the outflow of pollutants increased during the summer, indicating that the annual pollutant outflow was concentrated during the flood season, and it is analyzed that countermeasures are needed.

주제어

표/그림 (10)

그림 Fig. 1. The study area and the location of Sangsa Lake
그림 Fig. 2. HSPF model schematic diagram
그림 Fig. 3. AEM3D model schematic diagram (Hipsey et al., 2005)
표 Table 1. Flow rate and water quality calibration results
그림 Fig. 4. Calibration (a) Flow and (b) Water quality results
그림 Fig. 5. (a) Grid development of AEM3D model and (b) water level calibration result
그림 Fig. 6. Water quality calibration of the study site
표 Table 2. Seasonal average of simulated flow and water quality result by period
그림 Fig. 7. (a) RCP 4.5 and (b) RCP 8.5 flow result by period
표 Table 3. Seasonal scenario RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 result by period

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