[논문]수치모델링과 예보

이우진; 박래설; 권인혁; 김정한

doi:10.14191/atmos.2023.33.2.073

수치모델링과 예보
Numerical Weather Prediction and Forecast Application 원문보기

대기 = Atmosphere, v.33 no.2, 2023년, pp.73 - 104

이우진 ((재) 차세대수치예보모델개발사업단) , 박래설 ((재) 차세대수치예보모델개발사업단) , 권인혁 ((재) 차세대수치예보모델개발사업단) , 김정한 ((재) 차세대수치예보모델개발사업단)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Over the past 60 years, Korean numerical weather prediction (NWP) has advanced rapidly with the collaborative effort between the science community and the operational modelling center. With an improved scientific understanding and the growth of information technology infrastructure, Korea is able to provide reliable and seamless weather forecast service, which can predict beyond a 10 days period. The application of NWP has expanded to support decision making in weather-sensitive sectors of society, exploiting both storm-scale high-impact weather forecasts in a very short range, and sub-seasonal climate predictions in an extended range. This article gives an approximate chronological account of the NWP over three periods separated by breakpoints in 1990 and 2005, in terms of dynamical core, physics, data assimilation, operational system, and forecast application. Challenges for future development of NWP are briefly discussed.

주제어

표/그림 (2)

그림 Fig. 1. Performance of operational numerical weather prediction system at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) during 1998~2021, in terms of root mean square error of geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere, for the projection of 24, 72, and 120 hours (source: Numerical Modeling Center, KMA). Seasonal variability is smoothed out in dotted curves. Three break points are evident where model error starts to decrease rapidly: around 1999, 2005, and 2010. Global spectral model (JMA GSM) with horizontal resolution dx~120 km, using univariate optimal interpolation (OI) scheme, had been in operation since 1998. Direct assimilation of satellite radiance with JMA 3DVar started since mid-2005. 4DVar started since 2010 along with the UM, and replaced by 4DEnVar with KIM in 2020.
표 Table 1. Physical parameterization used in Korea Integrated Model (KIM).

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표제어: PCR

동의어: Packet Collision Rate

용어 설명 출처 목록 (6)

용어 설명: PCR은 세균 특이성이 있는 primer를 이용하여 적은 수의 세균이 있을지라도 쉽게 검출할 수 있는 유용한 방법이며, 이를 이용하여 구강 내 치면세균막이나 타액에서 직접 세균을 검출할 수 있게 되었다[8].

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