[논문]도시공간적 요인을 고려한 로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 체감더위 예측 모형 개발

성욱제; 박형민; 임재연; 서유진; 손정민; 민진규; 엄정희

doi:10.11108/kagis.2024.27.1.081

[국내논문] 도시공간적 요인을 고려한 로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 체감더위 예측 모형 개발
Development of a Prediction Model for Personal Thermal Sensation on Logistic Regression Considering Urban Spatial Factors

한국지리정보학회지 = Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, v.27 no.1, 2024년, pp.81 - 98

성욱제 (경북대학교 조경학과) , 박형민 (경북대학교 통계학과) , 임재연 (경북대학교 조경학과) , 서유진 (경북대학교 통계학과) , 손정민 (경북대학교 조경학과) , 민진규 (국립산림과학원 도시숲연구과) , 엄정희 (경북대학교 산림과학.조경학부 조경학전공)

초록
AI-Helper

본 연구는 시민들이 직접 체감하는 더위인 체감더위를 열환경 단위로 설정하여 공간적 요인과의 상관관계를 분석하고 체감더위 예측 모형을 개발하였다. 체감더위를 수집하기 위해 리빙랩이라는 시민 참여형 연구방법론을 적용하여 시민들이 직접 체감더위를 기록하고 주변의 온도를 측정하도록 하였다. 수집한 체감더위 정보의 입력지점에 기반하여 주변 도시공간적 요소를 수집하여 통계 분석을 위한 데이터셋을 구축하였다. 구축한 데이터를 활용하여 로지스틱 회귀분석을 수행하였다. 분석 결과, 기온은 주변 공간환경에 영향을 받으며, 건물 높이, 녹지율, 도로율과 음의 상관관계를 가지고, 기온과 천공률과 양의 상관관계를 가진다고 분석되었다. 또한 도로율, 천공률, 녹지율 순으로 체감더위에 강한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 기후변화 대응을 위한 국지적인 열환경 대책을 마련하기 위한 열환경 평가의 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This study analyzed the impact of urban spatial factors on the thermal environment. The personal thermal sensation was set as the unit of thermal environment to analyze its correlation with environmental factors. To collect data on personal thermal sensation, Living Lab was applied, allowing citizens to record their thermal sensation and measure the temperature. Based on the input points of the collected personal thermal sensation, nearby urban spatial elements were collected to build a dataset for statistical analysis. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the impact of each factor on personal thermal sensation. The analysis results indicate that the temperature is influenced by the surrounding spatial environment, showing a negative correlation with building height, greenery rate, and road rate, and a positive correlation with sky view factor. Furthermore, the road rate, sky view factor, and greenery rate, in that order, had a strong impact on perceived heat. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as basic data for assessing the thermal environment to prepare local thermal environment measures in response to climate change.

Keyword

표/그림 (19)

그림 FIGURE 1. Site study
그림 FIGURE 2. Analysis schemes for study
그림 FIGURE 3. Instruments for operating Living Labs
표 TABLE 1. Methods of operating Living Labs
그림 FIGURE 4. Spatial distribution of basic data in Jung-gu
표 TABLE 2. Basic data utilized in analysis
그림 FIGURE 5. Analysis of sky view factor
그림 FIGURE 6. Distribution of personal thermal sensation
그림 FIGURE 7. Analysis of urban spatial factors
표 TABLE 3. Descriptive statistics of each variable
그림 FIGURE 8. Box plots for the analysis variables
그림 FIGURE 9. Histograms of the analysis variables
그림 FIGURE 10. Correlation coefficients between variables
그림 FIGURE 11. ROC Curve
표 TABLE 4. Regression coefficients and statistics of the prediction model
표 TABLE 5. Classification table of personal thermal sensation based on the prediction model
그림 FIGURE 12. Distribution of personal thermal sensation types by temperature
표 TABLE 6. Evaluation of AUC in Machine Learning
표 TABLE 7. Prediction results using Machine Learning(Elastic net)

참고문헌 (28)

Agresti. 2006. An introduction to categorical？data analysis. Willey Publishing.
Bottyan, Z. and J. Unger. 2003. A multiple？linear statistical model for estimating the mean maximum urban heat island.？Theoretical and applied climatology？75:233-243.

상세보기
Dimoudi, A. and M. Nikolopoulou. 2003.？Vegetation in the urban environment.？microclimatic analysis and benefits.？Energy and buildings 35(1):69-76.

상세보기
Georgi, J.N. and D. Dimitriou. 2010. The？contribution of urban green spaces to the？improvement of environment in cities.？Case study of Chania, Greece. Building？and environment 45(6):1401-1414.

상세보기
Ren, Y., Deng, Y.Z., Zuo, S.D., Song, X.D.,？Liao, Y.L., Xu, C.D. and Z.W. Li. 2016.？Quantifying the influences of various？ecological factors on land surface？temperature of urban forests.？Environmental pollution 216:519-529.

상세보기
Ryu, N.H. and C.S. Lee. 2014. Effects for？the thermal comfort index improvement？of park woodlands and lawns in summer.？Journal of the Korean Institute of？Landscape Architecture 42(6):21-30.
Ryu, J.W., Jung, E.H., H. Akira. 2011. A？study of evaluation of thermal？environment following the alleviation of？the limit on number of floors of？apartment complexes. Journal of the？Korean Housing Association？22(3):93-100.
Kim, B.C., Kang, J.W., Park, C. and H.J.？Kim. 2020. Analysis of urban heat island？alleviating effect of urban parks and？green space in Seoul using deep neural？network model. Journal of the Korean？Institute of Landscape Architecture？48(4):19-28.
Kim, D.W., Kim, J.K. and E.H. Jung. 2010.？An analysis of micro-climate？environmental changes followed by？establishment of an urban park -Focused？on the Junggu in Daegu City. Journal of？The Urban Design Institute of Korea？11(2):77-94.
Kim, G.A., Choi, J.M. and K.H. Park. 2016. Analysis of thermal environment？in buildings according to color change of？roof and applicability of cool roof.？Journal of Korean Institute of？Architectural Sustainable Environment？and Building Systems 10(6):409-415.
Kim, M.K., Kim, S.P., Kim, N.H. and H.G.？Sohn. 2014. Urbanization and urban heat？island analysis using LANDSAT imagery:？Sejong City as a case study. Journal of？Civil and Environmental Engineering？Research 34(3):1033-1041.
Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency(KDCA). 2023.
Kolokotroni, M. and R. Giridharan. 2008.？Urban heat island intensity in London:？An investigation of the impact of？physical characteristics on changes in？outdoor air temperature during summer.？Solarenergy 82(11):986-998.
Joh, H.D. and T.K. Kwon. 2022. Effect of？urban park on thermal comfort in？summer -An analysis of micromclimate？data of Seoul Forest Park-. Journal of？the Korean Institute of Landscape？Architecture 50(6):30-41.
Jonsson, P. 2004. Vegetation as an urban？climate control in the subtropical city of？Gaborone, Botswana. International Journal？of Climatology; A Journal of the Royal？Meteorological Society 24(10):1307-1322.

상세보기
Lee, S.H., Lee, K.S., Jin W.C. and H.K.？Song. 2009. Effect of an urban park on？air temperature differences in a central？business district area. Landscape and？Ecological Engineering 5(2):183-191.

상세보기
Lee, S.M., Kweon, I. and Y.J. Kim. 2019. A？study on the Influence of urban？environment on the generation of？thermal disease. The Korea Contents？Association 19(12):84-92.
Lee, J.A., Jung, D.Y., Chon, J.H., Lee, S.M.？and Y.B. Song. 2010. An Evaluation of？human thermal comfort and improvement？of thermal environment by spatial？structure. Journal of the Korean Institute？of Landscape Architecture 38(5):12-20.
Lehmann, I., Mathey, J., Rossler, S.,？Brauer, A. and V. Goldberg. 2014. Urban？vegetation structure types as a？methodological approach for identifying？ecosystem services-Application to the？analysis of micro-climatic effects.？Ecological indicators 42:58-72.

상세보기
Min, J.K., Eum, J.H., Sung, U.J. and J.M.？Son. 2023. Collecting and mapping？information on personal thermal？sensation through the living lab program.？11th International Conference on Urban？Climate.
Oliveira, S., Andrade, H. and T. Vaz. 2011. The cooling effect of green？spaces as a contribution to the mitigation？of urban heat: A case study in Lisbon.？Building and Environment？46(11):2186-2194.

상세보기
Park, C., Ha, J. and S. Lee. 2017. Association？between three-dimensional built environment？and urban air temperature: Seasonal and？temporal differences.Sustainability 9(8):1338.
Park, J.H., and G.H. Cho. 2016. Influence of？park size on the park cooling effect:？Focused on Ilsan new town in Korea.？Journal of Korea Planning Association？51(5):247-261.
Park, S.K., Jo, S.M., Hyun, C.J., Kong, H.Y.,？Kim, S.H. and Y.K. Shin. 2017. Air temperature modification of an urban？neighborhood park in summer - Hyowon？Park, Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do, Journal of？Environment Science society？26(9):1057-1072.
Santamouris, M. 2015. Regulating the？damaged thermostat of the cities-Status,？impacts and mitigation challenges.Energy？and Buildings 91:43-56.

상세보기
Sung, U.J., Min, J.K., Jung, H.H., Son, J.M.？and J.H. Eum. 2023. Construction of a？thermal environment prediction map？based on perceived heat using machine？learning. Proceedings of 2023 Fall？conference of the Korean Association of？Geographic Information Studies.？pp.204-205.
Yin, C., Yuan, M., Lu, Y., Huang, Y. and Y.？Liu. 2018. Effects of urban form on the？urban heat island effect based on spatial？regression model. Science of the Total？Environment 634:696-704.

상세보기
Yoon, S.H. and I.A. Yeo. 2007. An analysis？of the urban structure and the evaluation？of thermal environment of a coastal city.？Journal of the Architectural Institute of？Korea Planning & Design？23(12):285-294.

표제어: PCR

동의어: Packet Collision Rate

용어 설명 출처 목록 (6)

용어 설명: PCR은 세균 특이성이 있는 primer를 이용하여 적은 수의 세균이 있을지라도 쉽게 검출할 수 있는 유용한 방법이며, 이를 이용하여 구강 내 치면세균막이나 타액에서 직접 세균을 검출할 수 있게 되었다[8].

내보내기 구분	파일저장 인쇄 메일전송
구성항목	기본정보 상세정보 관리번호, 논문명, 저널/프로시딩명, 저자 , 발행년, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, 발행기관 관리번호, 논문명, 대등논문명, 저자 , 저널/프로시딩명, 발행기관, 발행년, 발행언어, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, ISBN, ISSN, 주제분야, 키워드, 초록(한글), 초록(영문), 저자(소속기관)
저장형식	Text(ASCII format) Excel format RefWorks Direct Export RIS format (for Reference Manager, ProCite, EndNote), Scholar's Aids, Mendeley
메일정보	받는사람 (필수) @ 보내는사람 (선택) @ 제목 내용 KISTI 검색결과 이메일 서비스
안내	총 건의 자료가 검색되었습니다. 다운받으실 자료의 인덱스를 입력하세요. (1-10,000) 검색결과의 순서대로 최대 10,000건 까지 다운로드가 가능합니다. 데이타가 많을 경우 속도가 느려질 수 있습니다.(최대 2~3분 소요) 다운로드 파일은 UTF-8 형태로 저장됩니다. 파일의 내용이 제대로 보이지 않을실 때는 웹브라우저 상단의 보기 -> 인코딩 -> 자동선택 여부를 확인하십시오. ~ Text(ASCII format) Excel format

연합인증