[보고서]기후변화 예측기술 지원 및 활용연구

조천호

기후변화 예측기술 지원 및 활용연구
Development and Application of Methodology for Climate Change Prediction 원문보기

보고서 정보
주관연구기관	국립기상연구소
연구책임자	조천호
참여연구자	백희정 , 강현석 , 변영화 , 부경온 , 박수희 , 이효신 , 현유경 , 이조한 , 송민경 , 김문현 , 최다희 , 김민지 , 이경미 , 박이형 , 간순영 , 이재호 , 성장현 , 김명훈 , 김경나 , 이현정
보고서유형	최종보고서
발행국가	대한민국
언어	한국어
발행년월	2010-12
과제시작연도	2010
주관부처	기상청
사업 관리 기관	기상청 Korea Meteorological Administration
등록번호	TRKO201100006182
과제고유번호	1365001089
DB 구축일자	2013-04-18

초록 ▼

1. 한반도 관측자료에 기반한 기후변화 경향 분석
제주, 강릉, 인천을 중심으로 우리나라 지역 기후변화 경향을 분석하였으며, 한반도의 최근 10년의 기후특성과 변화, 기후 지수 및 극한값의 변화, 상층 기온변화를 분석하여 지구 온난화에 따른 한반도 기후변화 경향을 살펴보았다.
한반도 지역 기후변화 분석에서 있어서 관측개시일의 차이에 따라 분석기간에는 차이가 있으나, 제주, 강릉, 인천 전 지점에서 기온과 강수량은 상승추세를 보이고 있다. 즉, 강릉의 연평균 기온은 ${1.4^{\circ}C}$, 연강수량은 14% 증가(1912~2009년)하였고, 춘천의 연평균 기온은 ${0.9^{\circ}C}$, 연강수량은 3.4% (1966~2009년)증가하였으며, 인천의연평균 기온은 ${2.2^{\circ}C}$, 연강수량은 39% (1905~2009년) 증가하였다. 호남 지역에서는 지난 67년(1943~2009) 동안 평균적으로 연평균 기온이 ${1.0^{\circ}C}$ 상승하였고, 연 강수량은 170.0 mm 증가하였다. 또한 분석 지역에서 강수일수는 감소하고 강수강도는 증가하였으며, 자연계절 길이에 변화가 나타나 특히 제주에서는 최근 10년(2000~2009년)에 겨울에 해당하는 시기가 나타나지 않았다.
최근의 기후변화 경향을 파악하기 위하여 최근 10년(2000~2009)의 기후 특성과 과거 평년값(1971~2000)과의 차이를 분석한 결과, 최근 10년간 우리나라 (60개 관측지점 평균) 연평균 기온은 ${12.8^{\circ}C}$로 과거 평년값인 ${12.3^{\circ}C}$보다 ${0.5^{\circ}C}$ 상승하였고, 겨울철 평균 기온 상승이 ${0.7^{\circ}C}$로 가장 컸으며, 최근 10년간 연 강수량은 1,388.7 mm로 과거보다 76.6 mm 증가하였고, 봄, 가을, 겨울에는 강수량이 감소한 반면에 여름철에는 95.8 mm 증가하였다.
우리나라 6개 지점(강릉, 서울, 인천, 대구, 부산, 목포)의 98년(1912~2009)의 일최고/최저기온 및 일강수 자료를 이용하여 각 지점별로 다양한 기후 지수를 산출하고 변화추세를 살펴보았다. 6개 지점 모두에서 최저기온의 상승률이 최고기온의 상승률보다 크게 나타남에 따라 일교차는 점차 줄어드는 경향${(-0.12^{\circ}C}$/10년)을 보였고, 최저기온에 근거한 기후 지수인 서리일수(-2.6일/10년), 영하일수(-1.0일/10년) 등의 감소와 평균기온의 상승에 따른 성장계절길이 증가(+3.53일/10년)가 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 일강수와 관련된 주요 변화로 미우일수는 감소하지만, 다우일수는 증가하였다.
26년(1984~2009년) 18UTC 오산 고층자료를 이용하여 한반도 상층 기온변화를 평가한 결과, 대류권 하부(1000 hPa) 기온은 ${1.15^{\circ}C}$ 상승하였으며, 이러한 상승추세는 대류권 상부 및 성층권 하부에서 하강추세를 보였다. 특히 고층 기온 자료는 1991년 Pinatubo 화산 폭발에 의한 대류권 기온 하강 및 엘리뇨 기간(1997~1998년)에는 대류권 상부를 제외한 지표부터 성층권 하부에서 온도가 상승하는 추세를 잘 반영하고 있다.

Abstract ▼

1. Analysis of the climate change trend based on the observation data in the Korean Peninsula
The regional climate change trend in Korea was analyzed focusing on Jeju, Gangreung, and Incheon. We investigated the climate change trend by analyzing the climate characteristics and change in the last decade in Korea, changes in the climate index and the extreme values, and the vertical air temperature change using Osan upper air observaton data.
The air temperature and precipitation showed an increase trend in all Jeju, Gangreung, and Incheon, though there is a difference in the analyzed period depending on the starting date of the observation. The annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation of Gangreung increased by ${1.4^{\circ}C}$ and 14%(1912-2009), respectively, those of Chuncheon by ${0.9^{\circ}C}$ and 3.4% (1966-2009), and those of Incheon by ${2.2^{\circ}C}$ and 39% (1905-2009). In Honam regions, the air temperature increased by ${1.0^{\circ}C}$ and the annual precipitation by 170.0 mm over the past 67 years (1943~2009). Moreover, the number of rainfall days was decreased, while the rain rate was increased, and the duration of the natural seasons was changed. In particular, there appeared no period that corresponds to winter season in the last decade (2000-2009) in Jeju.
To investigate the climate change trend in recent times, we analyzed the climate characteristics in the last decade (2000~2009) and the values in the normal years (1971~2000). The result showed that the annual average air temperature in Korea in the last decade (the average at 60 observation locations) was ${12.8^{\circ}C}$ that is ${0.5^{\circ}C}$ of increase from ${12.3^{\circ}C}$ in the normal years(1971~200). The winter mean air temperature was increased the most by ${0.7^{\circ}C}$. The annual precipitation in last decade was 1,388.7 mm, increased by 76.6 mm when compared with that in the normal years. While the precipitation in spring, fall and winter was decreased, that in summer was increased by 95.8 mm.
Using the daily maximum/minimum temperature and daily precipitation data in the past 98 years (1912-2009) at six locations in Korea (Gangreung, Seoul, Inchoen, Daegu, Busan and Mokpo), various climate indices were calculated and the trend in the change was examined for each location. In all the six locations, the increasing rate of the daily minimum temperature was higher than that of the daily maximum temperature, and thus the trend was that the daily temperature difference became smaller (${-0.12^{\circ}C}$/10 years). A clear increase was found in the number of frost days (-2.6 days/10 years) and the number of ice days (-1.0 day/10 years), which are the climate indices based on the daily minimum temperature, and also in the growing season length (+3.53 days/10 years) by the increase of the mean temperature. A major change related to daily rainfall was that the number of days of no rain was decreased but the number of days of heavy rain was increased.
The air temperature change in the upper atmospheric layer over the Korean Peninsula was evaluated using the upper atmospheric layer data over Osan at 18UTC over last 26 years (1984-2009). The evaluation showed that the air temperature was increased by ${1.15^{\circ}C}$ at the lower troposphere (1000 hPa). The increasing rate was less at the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere. In particular, the upper layer air temperature data well reflected the air temperature decrease at the troposphere by the Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991 and the temperature increase between the ground surface to the lower stratosphere except the upper troposphere during the El Nino period (1997-1998).

목차 Contents

표지...1
연구보고서...3
목차...5
CONTENTS...9
LIST OF TABLES...13
LIST OF FIGURES...16
국문 요약문...29
Summary...38
제 1 장 서론...51
제 2 장 관측 자료를 활용한 기후변화 분석...55
제 1 절 한반도 지역별 100년 기후변화 추세 분석...56
1. 강원의 기후변화...56
2. 호남의 기후변화...87
3. 인천의 기후변화...106
4. 대구의 기후변화...125
제 2 절 최근 10년 기후 특성 및 변화 분석...144
1. 서론...144
2. 우리나라의 기온과 강수 분포 특성...144
3. 최근 10년 우리나라의 기후 및 현상일수 변화...147
4. 결론...159
제 3 절 기후 지수 및 극한 기후변화 분석...160
1. 서론...160
2. 분석결과...162
제 4 절 한반도 상층 기온변화 분석...169
1. 서론...169
2. 자료 및 방법...170
3. 결과...171
4. 결론 및 토의...174
제 3 장 기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 기후변화 분석...176
제 1 절 멀티모델 앙상블을 이용한 불확실성 평가...178
1. 서론...178
2. 실험방법 및 모델선정...179
3. 모델평가...182
4. 미래전망...185
5. 소결론...192
제 2 절 전지구 및 아시아 지역 물수지 평가 및 전망...195
1. 서론...195
2. 실험방법 및 모델선정...195
3. 모델평가...198
4. 물수지 평가 및 물 순환...202
5. 미래 물 순환 변화 전망...206
6. 소결론...209
제 3 절 장주기 흐름과 종관규모 에디와의 상호작용 연구...211
1. 서론...211
2. 자료 및 방법...212
3. IPCC AR4 모델에서의 에디피드백 모의성능...213
4. 장주기 흐름과 에디 피드백의 미래변화...218
5. 소결론...221
제 4 절 고해상도 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 한반도 극한 강수 분석...223
1. 서론...223
2. 분석자료...224
3. 분석 방법...225
4. 분석 결과...226
5. 소결론...240
제 5 절 지역기반 미래 홍수위험도 평가체계 구축 제안 및 사례 분석...241
1. 서론...241
2. 본론...242
3. 소결론 및 향후연구...261
제 4 장 새로운 온실가스 시나리오에 따른 기후변화 시나리오 개발...264
제 1 절 서론...264
제 2 절 IPCC AR5 시나리오 개발 전략의 주요 특성...266
1. IPCC AR5를 위한 새로운 온실가스 시나리오...266
2. 시나리오 개발에 있어서 평행적 접근방법...268
3. IPCC AR5 시나리오 개발과 보고서 발간 일정 및 현황...269
제 3 절 IPCC AR5를 위한 전지구/지역기후변화 시나리오 개발 국제 사업...271
1. CMIP5...271
2. CORDEX...273
제 4 절 국립기상연구소 국가 표준 기후변화 시나리오 개발 전략 및 현황...276
제 5 절 전지구 기후변화 적분 모의 실험 및 성능 평가...279
1. 적분 모의 실험...279
2. 성능 평가를 위한 자료 및 분석 지역...279
3. 모의 성능 평가 결과...282
제 6 절 고해상도 RCP 기후변화 시나리오 생산...292
제 7 절 국가표준 기후변화 시나리오 활용 방안 연구: 연안도시의 대응 방안...295
제 5 장 12개월 예측시스템 개발...301
제 1 절 기후예측자료 생산을 통한 현업 장기예보 지원...301
1. 3개월 예측시스템 구조 및 운영 체계...301
2. 3개월 예측 시스템의 2010년도 기후개황...306
3. 결론 및 요약...322
제 2 절 12개월 기후예측시스템 구축 및 모델 기후값 산출...324
1. 12개월 예측시스템 구조 설명...324
2. 12개월 예측시스템 예측성 분석...332
3. 결론 및 요약...338
제 3 절 UM 기반 역학적 상세화 시스템 개발...357
1. 역학적 상세화 시스템 개발...357
2. 역학적 상세화 시스템 검증...362
3. 결론 및 요약...366
제 4 절 기후예측모델의 후처리 기법 개발...368
1. 연구 배경...368
2. 연구 결과...370
제 6 장 결론...379
참고문헌...386

표/그림 (193)

표 Fig. 2.1.1. Monthly mean temperature and precipitation in Gangneung (a) and Chuncheon (b)
표 Fig. 2.1.2. Annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature in Gangneung (1912∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.3. Time series of extreme heat days in Gangneung (1912∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.4. Time series of tropical nights in Gangneung (1912∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.5. Time series of days with daily minimum below 0℃ in Gangneung (1912∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.6. Time series of HDD and CDD in Gangneung
표 Fig. 2.1.7. Anomalies in precipitation (upper), days with precipitation (middle) and precipitation intensity (lower) in Gangneung (1912∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.8. Snowfall (upper), its frequency (middle) and intensity (lower) in Gangneung (1937∼2008)
표 Fig. 2.1.9. Days with snowfall over 5 cm in Gangneung (1937∼2008)
표 Fig. 2.1.10. Yellow sand days in Gangneung (1960∼2007)
표 Fig. 2.1.12. Changes in season lengths in Chuncheon (1966∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.11. Changes in season lengths in Gangneung (1912∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.13. Distribution of mean temperature (a), maximum temperature (b) and minimum temperature for Gangwon (1973∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.14. Annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature on meteorological observation site in Gangwon area
표 Fig. 2.1.15. Annual precipitation on meteorological observation site in Gangwon area
표 Fig. 2.1.16. Monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1971 to 2000 in Honam (a: Jeonju, b: Gwangju, c: Mokpo, d: Yeosu)
표 Monthly mean temperature (℃) in Honam
표 Monthly precipitation totals (mm) in Honam
표 Fig. 2.1.17. Anomalies of annul mean temperature (left) and decadal changes (right) of mean temperature in Honam
표 Fig. 2.1.18. Anomalies of annul precipitation (left) and decadal changes (right) of precipitation in Honam
표 Fig. 2.1.20. Anomalies of annul relative humidity (left) and decadal changes (right) of relative humidity in Honam
표 Fig. 2.1.19. Decadal changes of mean (left) and maximum (right) wind velocity in Honam
표 Fig. 2.1.21. Changes in onset and length of seasons in Honam (a: Jeonju, b: Gwangju, c: Mokpo, d: Yeosu)
표 Fig. 2.1.22. Changes of snowfall intensity in Honam (a: Jeonju, b: Gwangju, c: Mokpo, d: Yeosu)
표 Fig. 2.1.23. Frequency of heavy snowfall days and the damage during 2000~2009 (Data: Annals of disaster)
표 Fig. 2.1.24. Distribution of mean (a), maximum (b), and minimum (c) temperature and precipitation in Honam (a: Jeonju, b: Gwangju, c: Mokpo, d: Yeosu)
표 Fig. 2.1.25. The difference temperature (upper, ℃) and precipitation (bottom, mm) between the last ten years (2000~2009) and the first ten years (1973~1982) on 14 observation stations in Honam
표 Fig. 2.1.26. Annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature in Incheon (1905 ∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.27. Time series of annual (left) and decadal (right) changes with tropical days (upper), tropical nights (middle) and daily minimum below 0℃ (lower) in Incheon (1905~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.28. Time series of HDD and CDD in Incheon (1905~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.29. Time series of (a) precipitation, (b) days with precipitation, (c) precipitation intensity in Incheon (1905∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.30. Time series of (a) snowfall, (b) frequency, (c) intensity in Incheon (1952∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.31. Time series of (a) mean and maximum wind velocity and (b) relative humidity and cloud cover in Incheon (1952~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.32. Time series of (a) foggy, (b) frost, (c) thunderstorm and (d) freezing days in Incheon (1966∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.33. Changes in (a) annual and (b) seasonal mean foggy days in airport and Incheon (1966∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.34. Changes in season lengths in Incheon
표 Fig. 2.1.35. Distributions of (a) mean, (b) maximum, (c) minimum temperature and (d) precipitation in Gyeonggi-do (1973∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.36. The difference (a) temperature(℃) and (b) precipitation(mm) between the last ten years(2000~2009) and the first ten years(1973~1982) on 5 observation station in Gyeonggi-do
표 Fig. 2.1.37. Annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature in Daegu (1909∼2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.38. Time series of tropical days, tropical nights and daily minimum below 0℃ in Daegu (1909~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.39. Time series of HDD and CDD in Daegu (1909~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.40. Time series of precipitation and days with precipitation (upper panel), intensity (lower panel) in Daegu (1909~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.41. Time series of (a) snowfall, (b) frequency, (c) intensity in Daegu (1909~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.42. Time series of (a) mean and maximum wind velocity and (b) relative humidity in Daegu (1909~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.43. Time series of (a) foggy, (b) frost, (c) thunderstorms and (d) freezing days in Daegu (1961~2009)
표 Fig. 2.1.44. Changes in season lengths in Daegu.
표 Fig. 2.1.45. Distribution of (a) mean, (b) maximum, (c) mimimum temperature and (d)precipitation in Gyeongsangbuk-do
표 Fig. 2.1.46. The difference (a) temperature(℃) and (b) precipitation(mm) between the last ten years(2000~2009) and the first ten years(1973~1982) on 12 observation station in Gyeongsangbuk-do
표 Fig. 2.2.1. Distribution of annul mean temperature, annul maximum temperature, annul minimum temperature, and precipitation totals during 1971~2000 in Korea
표 Fig. 2.2.2. Seasonal mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and precipitation their normal-year counterparts during 2000~2009
표 Fig. 2.2.3. Average annul mean temperatures during 2000~2009 (left) and winter mean temperatures (right) for the last decade and their previous normal-year counterparts (1971~2000)
표 Fig. 2.2.4. Average annul maximum temperatures during 2000~2009 (left) and spring maximum temperatures (right) for the last decade and their previous normal-year counterparts (1971~2000)
표 Fig. 2.2.5. Average annul minimum temperatures during 2000~2009 (left) and autumn minimum temperatures (right) for the last decade and their previous normal-year counterparts (1971~2000)
표 Fig. 2.2.6. Annul precipitation during 2000~2009 (left) and summer precipitation temperatures (right) over the last decade and their normal-year counterparts (1971~2000)
표 Fig. 2.2.7. Annul snowfall amount over the last decade and their normal-year values (1971~2000)
표 Fig. 2.2.8. Annual days of tropical night in 1971~2000 (left) and recent years (2000~2009) (right)
표 Fig. 2.2.9. Annual subzero days in 1971~2000 (left) and recent years (2000~2009) (right)
표 Fig. 2.2.10. Annual frost days in 1971~2000 (left) and recent years (2000~2009) (right)
표 Fig. 2.2.11. Annual heavy rain days in 1971~2000 (left) and recent years (2000~2009) (right)
표 Fig. 2.2.12. Annual heavy snowfall days in 1971~2000 (left) and recent years (2000~2009) (right)
표 Fig. 2.3.1. Trend of annual mean of maximum/minimum of monthly maximum/minimum temperature.
표 Fig. 2.3.2. Trends of number of wet days (units: days/decade)
표 Fig. 2.3.3. Trend of annual total precipitation (Pr>0), very wet day precipitation (Pr>95%) and extremely wet day precipitation (Pr>99%) (units: mm day-1/decade)
표 Fig. 2.4.1. The location of sonde observation stations
표 Fig. 2.4.2. Observed surface and upper air temperature records at 0000 UTC(1984-2009)
표 Fig. 2.4.3. Observed surface and upper air temperature records at 1800 UTC(1984-2009)
표 Fig. 2.4.4. Changes in annual mean temperature in Suwon
표 Fig. 2.4.5. Comparison of vertical profiles of decadal changes at 0000 UTC(1984-2009)
표 Fig. 2.4.6. Comparison of vertical profiles of decadal changes at 1800 UTC(1984-2009)
표 Fig. 3.1.1. Bias (upper panel) and RMSE (lower panel) distributions of area-averaged seasonal mean surface air temperature (K, 1961-1990) and precipitation (mm day-1,1979-1999) over the globe for the present-day climate from twenty-one AOGCM simulations.
표 Fig. 3.1.2. Taylor diagram analysis for model-simulated a) surface air temperature and b) precipitation over the globe for the present-day period (temperature from 1961-1990 and precipitation from 1979-1999) from twenty-one AOGCM simulations.
표 Fig. 3.1.3. Time series of Global area-averaged annual changes in temperature (℃) and precipitation (%) with respect to 1961-1990 (Temperature) and 1979-1999 (Precipitation) means in twenty-one AOGCM simulations (thin gray solid lines) and MME21 (thick black solid line) for the SRES A1B scenario.
표 Fig. 3.1.4. The MME21 mean change of a) surface air temperature and b) precipitation. Parts c) and d) show consensus (see text for definition) for temperature and precipitation for the SRES A1B scenario 2080s (2070-2099) with respective to 1961-1990 (Temperature) and 1979-1999 (Precipitation) means.
표 Fig. 3.1.5. Spatial pattern of a) internal variance based on the deviation of individual members from the ensemble average, b) external variance, c) total variance of the surface air temperature based on the ensemble average, and d) of surface air temperature for the 30-yr period from 2070 to 2099.
표 Fig. 3.1.6. As in Fig. 3.1.5 but for precipitation.
표 Fig. 3.1.7. Spatial distribution of P for the 30-yr from 2070 to 2099, denoted by dotted contour lines and temporal correlation between MME21 and CMAP precipitation in 1979-1999.
표 Fig. 3.1.8. Statistical significance greater than 90% in a) t-test and b) f-test between observed and simulated precipitation from 1979 to 1999 (21-yr) (shadedareas).
표 Fig. 3.2.1. Six subregions for detail analysis.
표 Fig. 3.2.2. Bias distributions of area-averaged near surface temperature (℃) and precipitation (mm day-1)over Global for the present climate (T: 1961∼1990(30yr), P: 1979∼1999(21yr)) from twenty-one AOGCM simulations.
표 Fig. 3.2.3. Same as Fig. 3.2.2 except for Asian region.
표 Fig. 3.2.4. RMSE distributions of area-averaged near surface temperature (℃) and precipitation (mm day-1) over Global for the present climate (T: 1961∼1990(30yr), P: 1979∼1999(21yr)) from nineteen AOGCM simulations.
표 Fig. 3.2.5. Same as Fig. 3.2.4 except for Asian region.
표 Fig. 3.2.6. Taylor diagram analysis for model-simulated near surface temperature and precipitation over globe (upper panel) and Asia (lower panel) for the present-day period (1961?1990) from nineteen AOGCM simulations and MME19.
표 Fig. 3.2.7. Same as Fig. 3.2.6 except for precipitation (1979-1999).
표 Fig. 3.2.8. Latitudinal distribution of global mean (land only) precipitation for the present climate (1979-1999) from a) CMAP data (red solid line), b) R-2 data (black dash line), and c) MME9 (black dot line).
표 Fig. 3.2.9. Precipitation seasonal cycle of six sub-region over Asia (1979-1999) for NCEP/DOE, CMAP and MME19.
표 Fig. 3.2.10. Annual mean P of reanalysis, CMAP and MME19 (1979-1999) over six sub-regions.
표 Fig. 3.2.11. Multi-model ensemble mean change of a) precipitation, b) evaporation, and c) P-E in MME19 for 30-year period of 2080s (2070?2099).
표 Fig. 3.2.12. Seasonal cycle change of precipitation and evaporation over six sub-region of Asia for 30-year period of 2080s (2070?2099).
표 Fig. 3.3.1. (a) Zonal wind and (b) storm track activity at 300 hPa for 1981-2000 in boreal winter.
표 Fig. 3.3.2. Correlation between (a) zonal wind and meridional eddy vorticity flux and (b) meridional wind and zonal eddy vorticity flux at 300 hPa for 1981-2000 in boreal winter.
표 Fig. 3.3.3. The same as Fig. 3.3.2. except for eddy heat flux at 700 hPa.
표 Fig. 3.3.4. The same as Fig. 3.3.2. except for eddy moisture flux at 700 hPa.
표 Fig. 3.3.5. Changes in zonal wind (shading) and eddy vorticity flux (vector) at 300 hPa.
표 Fig. 3.3.6. Scatter diagram with moving domain [60 longitude x (30-70N)] for eddy-feedback strength (EFS) and geopotential height variance
표 Fig. 3.3.7. Eddy-feedback strength
표 Fig. 3.4.1. Annual precipitation for 20C(1979-2007년), (a) Synoptic station data, (b) APHRODITE V0902, (c) APHRODITE 0.25deg V0902, (d) APHRODITE 0.05deg V1003R1, and (e) APHRODITE 0.25deg V1003R1.
표 Fig. 3.4.2. Monthly precipitation from synoptic station (red), APHRODITE V0902 (sky blue), APHRODITE V1003R1 (blue).
표 Fig. 3.4.3. Annual precipitation from climate change scenarios of NIMR (a) 20C(1979-2007), (b) 21C(2077-2099) and (c) difference.
표 Fig. 3.4.4. Annual precipitation from cliamte change scenarios of MRI (a) 20C(1979-2007), (b) 21C(2077-2099) and (c) difference.
표 Fig. 3.4.5. Location values of GEV distribution from (a) Synoptic station, (b) APHRODITE 0.05deg, and (c) APHRODITE 0.25deg.
표 Fig. 3.4.6. 95% values of GEV distribution from (a) Synoptic station, (b) APHRODITE 0.05deg and (c) APHRODITE 0.25deg.
표 Fig. 3.4.7. Spatial patterns of linear trends (mm/decade) in annual total precipitation of very wet days 9a) and extremely we days (b) over the 1973-2007 period at 61 weather stations in the Republic of Korea (Choi et al.(2008)의 Fig. 11).
표 Fig. 3.4.8. 95% values of GEV distribution from climate change scenarios of NIMR, (a) 20C(1979-2007), (b) 21C(2077-2099) and (c) difference.
표 Fig. 3.4.9. 95% values of GEV distribution from climtea change scenarios of MRI, (a) 20C(1979-2007), (b) 21C(2077-2099) and (c) difference.
표 Fig. 3.4.10. Changes of GEV distribution from 20C to 21C.
표 Fig. 3.4.11. 95% values of GEV distribution in East Asia during 20C from (a) APHRODITE and (b) climate change scenarios of MRI.
표 Fig. 3.4.12. Difference (21C-20C) of 95% values of GEV distribution from climate change scenarios of MRI.
표 Fig. 3.4.13. Spatial patterns of trends in very wet day precipitation (a) 95% and (b) 99% at 143 individual wether stations across the APN region (Choi et al.(2009)의 Fig. 14)
표 Fig. 3.5.2. The form of GEV PDF on the upper side
표 Fig. 3.5.3. The basic concept of flood a hazard assessment (Jang and Kim, 2009)
표 Fig. 3.5.4. The method applied to estimate the potential flood damage and the FVI (Jang and Kim, 2009)
표 Fig. 3.5.5. The box plot of annual maximum rainfall by the 10 year
표 Fig. 3.5.6. The application results of Mann-Kendall test
표 Fig. 3.5.7. The estimated GEV parameters of cumulatived annual maximum rainfall data by 1 year (Nfirst = 30 years)
표 Fig. 3.5.8. The plotted PDF using initial data for 30 years data and total data
표 Fig. 3.5.9. The histogram of regression parameters estimated a bayesian linear regression analysis
표 Fig. 3.5.10. The future location parameters estimated a bayesian linear regression analysis
표 Fig. 3.5.11. The comparison between present probable rainfalls and future probable rainfalls (2030 year)
표 Fig. 3.5.12. The results of this research with potential flood damage
표 Fig. 3.5.13. The results of this research with FVI
표 Fig. 4.2.1. Some of the major scenario-related activities across the IAV, IAM, and CM research communities and relationships among them (adapted from Krey, 2010)
표 Fig. 4.3.1. Schematic summary of CMIP5 (a) decadal prediction experiments and (b) long-term experiments with each one divided into prioritized tiers of experiments. (Modified from Tayler et al., 2009 figure 1 and figure 2)
표 Fig. 4.3.2. Regional domains planned for the CORDEX experiments (some still under discussion); also indicated are existing projects that make use of the corresponding domain.
표 Fig. 4.4.1. Several steps from emissions to climate reponse ranging from global to national domain and their horizontal resolutions, models, and related International program at each step.
표 Fig. 4.4.2. Some of the major experiments for developing new climate change scenarios by NIMR/KMA.
표 Fig. 4.5.1. Time series of global mean surface air temperature for the 200 year pre-industrial run.
표 Fig. 4.5.2. Modelled seasonal mean surface air temperature and difference between modelled surface air temperature and NCAR climatology for DJF and JJA.
표 Fig. 4.5.3. Modelled interannual standard deviation of surface air temperature and differences between modelled surface air temperature and NCAR climatology for JJA and DJF.
표 Fig. 4.5.4. Time series of global mean precipitation for the 200 year pre-industrial run.
표 Fig. 4.5.5. Modelled seasonal mean precipitation and difference between modelled precipitation and NCAR climatology for JJA and DJF.
표 Fig. 4.5.6. Annual cycle of East Asia area-averaged surface air temperature and precipitation.
표 Fig. 4.5.7. Normalized bias in HadGEM2-AO relative to observation for the variable of climatology in JJA(yellow bar) and DJF(blue bar).
표 Fig. 4.5.8. SLP [hPa] difference between HadGEM2-AO and observation in JJA(left) and DJF(right).
표 Fig. 4.5.9. Same as Fig. 4.5.8 but for Precipitation [mm/day] and 850 hPa wind [sec].
표 Fig. 4.5.10. Zonal mean of annual mean precipitation from observation(left) and HadGEM2-AO(right) averaged over East Asia(100-150°E, 20-50°N).
표 Fig. 4.5.11. Taylor diagram of the HadGEM2-AO climatology for surface temperature(left) and precipitation(right) over globe, East Asia and Korea peninsula.
표 Fig. 4.6.1 Production system of high-resolution climate change scenarios
표 Fig. 4.7.1. Analysis Process
표 Fig. 4.7.2. Vulnerability assessment framework
표 Fig. 5.1.1. Procedure of NIMR AGCM running.
표 Fig. 5.1.2. Data transmission structure of NIMR 3-month prediction system.
표 Fig. 5.1.3. NIMR EPS forecast results about SLP (Sea Level Pressure) of 3-month prediction system averaged over Northern hemisphere during spring season.
표 Fig. 5.1.4. Same as in Fig. 5.1.3 but for 200 hPa wind components averaged over East Asia region.
표 Fig. 5.1.5. Same as in Fig. 5.1.3 but for 500 hPa geopotential heights.
표 Fig. 5.1.6. Same as in Fig. 5.1.4 but for 850 hPa wind components.
표 Fig. 5.1.7. Same as in Fig. 5.1.4 but for 500 hPa geopotential heights.
표 Fig. 5.1.8. Same as in Fig. 5.1.4 but for 850 hPa temperature.
표 Fig. 5.1.9. Same as in Fig. 5.1.4 but for anomalous precipitation rate.
표 Fig. 5.1.10. Same as Fig. 5.1.3 but for during summer season.
표 Fig. 5.1.11. Monthly global SST anomalies for April 2010. The mean values averaged from 1979 to 2002 is used for monthly climatology.
표 Fig. 5.1.12. Same as Fig. 5.1.8 but for during summer season.
표 Fig. 5.1.13. Same as Fig. 5.1.9 but for during summer season.
표 Fig. 5.1.14. Category forecasts distribution of 3-month forecast system during summer season.
표 Fig. 5.1.15. Same as Fig. 5.1.3 but for during autumn season.
표 Fig. 5.1.16. Same as Fig. 5.1.8 but for during autumn season.
표 Fig. 5.1.17. Same as Fig. 5.1.7 but for during autumn season.
표 Fig. 5.1.18. Same as Fig. 5.1.6 but for during autumn season.
표 Fig. 5.1.19. Same as Fig. 5.1.9 but for during autumn season.
표 Fig. 5.1.20. Same as Fig. 5.1.3 but for during winter season.
표 Fig. 5.1.22. Same as Fig. 5.1.8 but for during winter season.
표 Fig. 5.1.21. Same as Fig. 5.1.11 but for November 2010.
표 Fig. 5.1.23. Same as Fig. 5.1.8 but for during winter season.
표 Fig. 5.2.1. Schematic representation of forecast and hindcast suites.
표 Fig. 5.2.2. Example of Nino 3.4 SST anomalies for forecasts initialized on 15th, 22nd, 29th March2010.
표 Fig. 5.2.3. Average growth of spread for forecasts initialized on Monday of each week through May 2010 (14 members in each of the 4 forecasts).
표 Fig. 5.2.4. Effects of subsampling and length of hindcast on (a) Nino 3.4, December forecast (initialized November) and (b) N. Europe, May forecast (initialized November).
표 Fig. 5.2.5. Climatological seasonal mean precipitation for JJA (left panel) and DJF (right panel) from the (a, d) GPCP precipitation dataset and (b, e) GloSea4 hindcast ensemble simulation averaged over 1992-2005.
표 Fig. 5.2.6. Climatological seasonal mean surface air temperature for JJA (left panel) and DJF (right panel) from the (a, d) ERA-interim dataset and (b, e) GloSea4 hindcast ensemble simulation averaged over 1992-2005. Differences in (c and d) are GloSea4 minus ERA-interim reanalysis.
표 Fig. 5.2.7. Same as in Fig 6.2.2 except for the sea surface temperature.
표 Fig. 5.2.8. The same as in Fig 6.2.2 except for the perturbations of 500 hPa geopotential height from the zonal mean state. The observational fields are obtained from the ERA-interim reanalysis.
표 Fig. 5.2.9. Cross section of the zonal averaged zonal wind (shading, ms-1) and meridional circulation (vectors) for JJA (left panel) and DJF (right panel) for (a, d) ERA-interim reanalysis and (b, e) GloSea4 simulations.
표 Fig. 5.2.10. Taylor diagram for the seasonal mean climatology for mean sea level pressure, precipitation, surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, 200hPa zonal wind, and 500hPa geopotential height.
표 Fig. 5.2.11. SST plume plots for (a) May start and (b) November start dates simulation.
표 Fig. 5.2.12. SST anomalies averaged over (a, d) NINO3, (b, e) NINO3.4, and (c, f) NINO4 regions.
표 Fig. 5.2.13. Difference of precipitation between El-Nino and La-Nina composite years from the (a, c) GPCP observation data sets and (b, d) GloSea4 simulations for (a, b) JJA and (c, d) DJF.
표 Fig. 5.2.14. The same as in Fig 6.2.12 except for the precipitation averaged over (a, d) the globe, (b, e) the northern hemisphere, and (c, f) the East Asia.
표 Fig. 5.2.15. (a, b) Anomaly correlation coefficient and (c, d) root mean square errors from the simulated precipitation by the GloSea4 and GDAPS for JJA (left panel) and DJF (right panel).
표 Fig. 5.2.16. Comparison of (a) Arctic Oscillation and (b) East Asian winter monsoon indices from the ERA-interim reanalysis (black), GloSea4 (red), and GDADS (blue).
표 Fig. 5.2.17. Seasonal mean climatology of the precipitation obtained from the (a) GPCP, (b) GDAPS, and (c) GloSea4 hindcast ensemble simulation over East Asia.
표 Fig. 5.2.18. Time-latitude section from the 5-day mean precipitation from (a) CMAP and (b) GloSea4 simulation averaged over 110-130oE.
표 Fig. 5.2.19. ROC curves for the East Asia for all years (a) Precipitation (b) U 850hPa Wind.
표 Fig. 5.3.1. Model domains and orography (m). Dotted line stands for inner domain without lateral boundary forcing.
표 Fig. 5.3.2. Precipitation rate (mm day-1) from (a) the CMAP data, (b) the CRU data, (c) the simulation by the HadGEM2-AO, and (d) the simulation by the HadGEM3-RA for June-July 1979.
표 Fig. 5.3.3. Precipitation rate (mm day-1) from (a) the APHRODITE data, (b) the simulation by the HadGEM2-AO, and (c) the simulation by the HadGEM3-RA for June-July 1979.
표 Fig. 5.4.1. Schematic description of statistical method.
표 Fig. 5.4.2. The time series of precipitation prediction using EOF/CCA method and ICA/CCA method
표 Fig. 5.4.3. The spatial image of precipitation prediction using suggested methods in combined positive EASMI year
표 Fig. 5.4.4. The one-point correlation map to the grid in Korea
표 Fig. 5.4.5. Multi-model ensemble prediction for east Asia precipitation. Numbers indicate correlation with the observation
표 Fig. 5.4.6. The spatial image of Multi-model ensemble prediction for east Asia precipitation in combined El-Nino year
표 Fig. 5.4.7. Estimated probability density function of East asia precipitation
표 Fig. 5.4.8. Precipitation amounts of Seoul and Incheon on July

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