[보고서]극한 기후 장기예보모델 개발에 관한 연구

김광열

보고서 정보

주관연구기관

서울대학교 지구환경과학부

연구책임자

김광열

참여연구자

방인권 , 나한나 , 노준우 , 김유진 , 이훈규 , 김진수 , 김지원

보고서유형

2단계보고서

발행국가

대한민국

언어

한국어

발행년월

2012-01

과제시작연도

2011

주관부처

기상청

사업 관리 기관

기상청
Korea Meteorological Administration

등록번호

TRKO201200000794

과제고유번호

1365001179

DB 구축일자

2013-05-20

키워드

장기예보,통계예보,구분지역회귀분석long-term forecasts,statistical forecasts,piecewise regression

표 The first CSEOF of summertime precipitations at 61 KMA stations in Korea
표 July 7 patterns of the seasonal evolution in (a) low-level (1000-850 hPa) total moisture convergence (shaded at 1×10-8kg/kg/sec intervals) and precipitation(contoured at 1mm/day intervals) anomalies, (b) 200-hPa geopotential height anomalies (contoured at 20m interval) and wind >2m/sec (vector), (c) 850-hPa geopotential height (contoured at 3m) and wind anomalies >1m/sec (vector) ,and (d) vertical section of moisture convergence (shaded at 0.3×10-8), -Ω (contoured at 1´10-2Pa/sec) and wind along 127.5°-130°E. Vertical component of winds has been exaggerated by multiplying 100. Red shades denote positive values and blue shades negative values.
표 Same as Fig. 3.1.2 except for July 31.
표 Same as Fig. 3.1.2 except for August 26.
표 (a) Northward propagation of subseasonal (10-30 day) component of precipitation (contours; 0.2 mm/day) and low-level (1000-850 hPa) moisture convergence (shades; 1×10-9kg/kg/sec) anomalies along 127.5°-130°E in the seasonal cycle and (b) the subseasonal component of precipitation in Korea averaged over 61 KMA stations. The two vertical dotted lines denote the meridional extent of the 61 KMA stations.
표 Positive composite of the subseasonal component of variability
표 Correlation of moisture convergence (shade), -Ω velocity (contour) and (v, -Ω) wind along the 127.5°-130°E band with the subseasonal component of KMA precipitation.
표 Positive composite of 10-day high-pass filtered anomalies of physical variables
표 Percent variability, amplitude, and standard deviation of the seasonal cycle of the daily precipitation at 61 KMA stations for TOT, PRE, and POS years.
표 The seasonal component of summertime precipitation variability at each of the 61 KMA stations in Korea for (a) PRE years and (b) POS years.
표 The seasonal component of summertime precipitations averaged over KMA stations 1-10 and stations 15-61 in Korea: averaged precipitation (dotted: PRE years; solid: POS years) in mm/day.
표 The seasonal component of the zone-averaged (125°-130°E) evolution of the 700 hPa vertical velocity (interval: 1´10-2Pa/sec)at32.5°N (black solid), 35°N (red dashed), 37.5°N (green dash-dotted), and 40°N (blue dotted).
표 July 1 patterns of the seasonal evolution in (a and e) 1000-850 hPa moisture convergence (shaded at 1´10-8 kg/kg/sec intervals) and 1000-hPa GPH (contoured at 10 gpm interval) and wind > 2 m/sec, (b and f) 500-hPa GPH (contoured at 60 gpm interval) and wind > 2 m/sec (vector), (c and g) 850-hPa GPH (contoured at 3 gpm) and wind anomalies > 1 m/sec (vector), and (d and h) vertical meridional section of moisture convergence (shaded at 1´10-8 kg/kg/sec intervals), vertical velocity anomalies (contoured at 1´10-2 Pa/sec) and wind anomalies > 1 m/sec along 125°-130°E. The vertical component of wind has been amplified by a factor of 100. (a)-(d) are for PRE years and (e)-(h) are for POS years.
표 August 1 patterns of the seasonal evolution of (a and e) 925-hPa moisture convergence (shaded at 1´10-8 kg/kg/sec intervals) and GPH anomalies (contoured at 3 gpm interval) and wind anomalies > 1 m/sec, (b and f) 500-hPa relative vorticity anomalies (contoured at 1´10-5 sec-1interval)and200-hPazonalwind³ 25 m/sec (shaded at 5 m/sec intervals), (c and g) 500-hPa vertical velocity anomalies (contoured at 1´10-2 Pa/sec) and wind anomalies > 1 m/sec (vector), and (d and h) vertical meridional section of moisture convergence (shaded at 1´10-8 kg/kg/sec), vertical velocity anomalies (contoured at 1´10-2 Pa/sec) and wind anomalies > 1 m/sec along 125°-130°E. The vertical components of wind have been scaled up by a factor of 100. (a)-(d) are for PRE years and (e)-(h) are for POS years.
표 Same as Figure 3.2.6 except for August 26.
표 The seasonal component of the zone-averaged (125°-130°E) evolution of the 500-hPa vertical velocity (interval: 1´10-2Pa/sec). The two vertical dashed lines denote the meridional extent of the 61 KMA stations.
표 (a and c): Sub-seasonal (10-30 day) component of precipitation (contours: 0.3 mm/day) and low-level (1000-850 hPa) moisture convergence (shade: 1×10-9kg/kg/sec) anomalies along 125°-130°E in the seasonal cycle, and (b and d): sub-seasonal component of precipitation (mm/day) in Korea averaged over the 61 KMA stations. The two vertical dotted lines in (a) and (c) denote the meridional extent of the 61 KMA stations.
표 Positive composite of the sub-seasonal component of variability: (a and e) 850-hPa GPH (contour: 5 gpm), specific humidity (shade: 1×10-4kg/kg/sec), and wind > 0.5 m/sec; (b and f) 200-hPa GPH (contour: 10 gpm), relative vorticity (shade: 1×10-5sec-1), and wind > 2 m/sec; (c and g) zonal cross section of GPH (contour: 4 gpm), relative vorticity (shade: 1×10-6sec-1), and wind (u, -Ω) > 0.5 m/s along the 32.5°-40°N band; (d and h) meridional cross section of GPH (contour: 4 gpm), vertical velocity anomalies (shade: 1×10-2Pa/sec), and wind (v, -Ω) > 0.5 m/s along the 122.5°-130°E band. (a)-(d) are for PRE years and (e)-(h) are for POS years
표 High-frequency component of precipitations (line), (a and c) GPH anomalies (red/blue shading: positive/negative) at 200-600 hPa, and (b and d) low-level (850-1000 hPa) moisture convergence anomalies (shading) in the high-frequency component in Korea (130°E, 37.5°N). Panels (a and b) are for PRE years and (c and d) for POS years. The right axis denotes the precipitation scale (mm/day).
표 Positive composite of the high-frequency component of variability: (a and c) 850-hPa GPH (contour: 2 gpm), vertical velocity (shade: 1´10-2Pa/sec),andwind>0.5m/sec;(bandd)zonalcrosssectionofGPH(contour:5gpm),r elativevorticity(shade:1´10-6sec-1),andwind(u,-W) > 0.5 m/s along the 32.5°-37.5°N band. (a and b) are for PRE years and (c and d) are for POS years.
표 Once the AVISO data is centered using least squares, CSEOF analysis is performed on the residual using a nested period of 12 months. The first CSEOF mode explains the annual cycle signal; (top) the time-dependent loading vectors; (bottom) the PC time series. The time series displays the time-varying amplitude of the annual cycle.
표 The time-dependent loading vectors and the PC time series (Fig. 1) are combined and averaged to form a global mean of the annual cycle mode.
표 (top) The second CSEOF mode with the loading vectors and (bottom) the PC time series: based on the spatial pattern of the loading vectors and the PC time series, this mode is related to the ENSO signal. The PC time series has a very high correlation with the MEI.
표 The global mean time series of CSEOF mode 2 (blue) and the MEI (red) show a very strong correlation of 0.80. Coupled with the loading vectors, the second CSEOF mode is physically interpretable as being associated with ENSO.
표 Map of SNR between the secular trend and background noise: (a) SNR computed solely using least squares and (b) SNR from least squares incorporating CSEOF analysis. White represents areas in which the SNR is less than 1, while black shows where the SNR is greater than 1.
표 Maps of standard error of the estimated linear trend computed from (a) a simple least squares approach and (b) least squares incorporating CSEOF analysis to estimate and remove the time-varying annual and ENSO signals. Standard error estimates are shown with units of mm yr-1, (c)percentage reduction in standard error obtained from the inclusion of CSEOF analysis.
표 Maps of SNR computed using varying lengths of original time series: (top left) SNR for first 4 years of data, (top right) SNR for first 8 years of data, (bottom left) data for first 12 years of data, and (bottom right) SNR for the full time series. Percentages of areas with SNR greater than one are 10.4%, 10.5%, 6.8%, and 9.9%, respectively.
표 Maps of standard error (mm yr-1) on the estimated linear trend computed using varying lengths of original time series.
표 Trend (mm yr-1), SNR, and the ratio of secular trend to standard error (SE) for GMSL using different time series lengths (TSL) and different methods of computation.
표 SNR maps created by projecting results to the years 2015 and 2020
표 AR model fit (see Eq. 5) for the first 20 CSEOF PC time series of the tropical Pacific SSTs.
표 Number of occurrences in month of the NINO3 indices for 1870-2006 (left; observational period) and 2007-2056 (right; prediction period). The red solid curve denotes the observed number of occurrences of NINO3 and blue dotted curves denote the number of occurrences of NINO3 indices for the synthetic datasets.
표 Number of occurrences in months of the NINO4 indices for 1870-2006 (left; observational period) and 2007-2056 (right; prediction period).
표 The cold-tongue (upper) and the warm-pool (lower) El Niño occurrences in years in the observational data in the period of 1870- 2006 (red) and in the 100 synthetic SST records in the same period.
표 A comparison of statistics between the observational data (OBS) and the synthetic datasets (SYN) in terms of El Niño occur- rences (OCCR), mean temperatures over NINO regions (MEAN), and standard deviation of mean temperatures (STDV).
표 The mean temperature anomalies (°C) of the cold-tongue (upper) and the warm-pool (lower) El Niño in the observational data in the period of 1870-2006 (red) and those of the 100 synthetic SST records in the same period.
표 The standard deviation (°C) of the cold-tongue (upper) and the warm-pool (lower) El Niño temperatures in the observational data in the period of 1870-2006 (red) and those of the 100 synthetic SST records in the same period.
표 Occurrences in months of cold-tongue (left) and the warm-pool (right) El Niño in the observational data (red; 1870-2006) and in the 100 synthetic datasets (blue; 1870-2056).
표 The cold-tongue (upper) and the warm-pool (lower) El Niño occurrences in years in the observational data in the period of 2007- 2056 (red) and in the 100 synthetic SST records in the same period.
표 The mean temperatures (°C) of the cold-tongue (upper) and the warm-pool (lower) El Niño in the observational data in the period of 2007-2056 (red) and those of the 100 synthetic SST records in the same period.
표 Histogram of occurrence frequencies of (left) cold-tongue El Niño for 1870-2006 (blue) and for 2007-2056 (red), and (right) warm-pool El Niño for 1870-2006 (blue) and for 2007-2056 (red). The unit for the y-axis is number of years.
표 Histogram of mean temperatures of (left) cold-tongue El Niño for 1870-2006 (blue) and for 2007-2056 (red), and (right) warm-pool El Niño for 1870-2006 (blue) and for 2007-2056 (red). The unit for y-axis is number of years.
표 겨울철 (11월 17일 3월 16일) 서울의 일일 평균 기온으로부터 추출한 두 번째 CSEOF LV와 (윗단) 그 PC 시계열 (아랫단).
표 NCEP 2m 대기온도, 해수면 기압과 850 hPa 바람장으로부터 regression을 이용하여 서울시에서의 겨울철 일일 평균온도의 두 번째 CSEOF 모드와 관련된 변동을 찾아낸 후 10일보다 짧은 주기의 high-pass filtering을 한 후에 삼한사온의 양의 국면일 때 평균한 결과.

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